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The large deviations of an infinite moving average process with exponentially light tails are very similar to those of an i.i.d. sequence as long as the coefficients decay fast enough. If they do not, the large deviations change…

Probability · Mathematics 2008-02-26 Souvik Ghosh , Gennady Samorodnitsky

In this article we establish a large deviation principle for the empirical measures of a simple spatially inhomogeneous random walk on $\overline{\mathbb{Z}}$, the two-point compactification of $\mathbb{Z}$. The classical Donsker--Varadhan…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-05-27 Jan-Luka Fatras

We consider real-valued branching random walks and prove a large deviation result for the position of the rightmost particle. The position of the rightmost particle is the maximum of a collection of a random number of dependent random…

Probability · Mathematics 2019-06-27 Nina Gantert , Thomas Höfelsauer

For a multivariate random walk with i.i.d. jumps satisfying the Cramer moment condition and having a mean vector with at least one negative component, we derive the exact asymptotics of the probability of ever hitting the positive orthant…

Probability · Mathematics 2019-05-09 Yuqing Pan , Konstantin Borovkov

We study right tail large deviations of the logarithm of the partition function for directed lattice paths in i.i.d. random potentials. The main purpose is the derivation of explicit formulas for the $1+1$-dimensional exactly solvable case…

Probability · Mathematics 2013-12-17 Nicos Georgiou , Timo Seppäläinen

We study the large deviation probabilities of infinite weighted sums of independent random variables that have stretched exponential tails. This generalizes Kiesel and Stadtm\"uller (2000), who study the same objects under the assumption of…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-01-01 Frank Aurzada

We consider a random walk in random environment with random holding times, that is, the random walk jumping to one of its nearest neighbors with some transition probability after a random holding time. Both the transition probabilities and…

Probability · Mathematics 2014-12-30 Ryoki Fukushima , Naoki Kubota

A global picture of a random particle movement is given by the convex hull of the visited points. We obtained numerically the probability distributions of the volume and surface of the convex hulls of a selection of three types of…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2018-07-04 Hendrik Schawe , Alexander K. Hartmann , Satya N. Majumdar

The probability that the sum of independent, centered, identically distributed, heavy-tailed random variables achieves a very large value is asymptotically equal to the probability that there exists a single summand equalling that value. We…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-02-15 Quirin Vogel

We derive functional convergence of the partial maxima stochastic processes of multivariate linear processes with weakly dependent heavy-tailed innovations and random coefficients. The convergence takes place in the space of…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-07-23 Danijel Krizmanic

For an arbitrary transient random walk $(S_n)_{n\ge 0}$ in $\mathbb Z^d$, $d\ge 1$, we prove a strong law of large numbers for the spatial sum $\sum_{x\in\mathbb Z^d}f(l(n,x))$ of a function $f$ of the local times…

Probability · Mathematics 2019-08-20 I. M. Asymont , D. Korshunov

Our model is a constrained homogeneous random walk in a nonnegative orthant Z_+^d. The convergence to stationarity for such a random walk can often be checked by constructing a Lyapunov function. The same Lyapunov function can also be used…

Probability · Mathematics 2007-05-23 David Gamarnik

Large deviation results are given for a class of perturbed nonhomogeneous Markov chains on finite state space which formally includes some stochastic optimization algorithms. Specifically, let {P_n} be a sequence of transition matrices on a…

Probability · Mathematics 2007-05-23 Zach Dietz , Sunder Sethuraman

The contribution of this paper is to introduce change of measure based techniques for the rare-event analysis of heavy-tailed stochastic processes. Our changes-of-measure are parameterized by a family of distributions admitting a mixture…

Probability · Mathematics 2010-06-15 Jose Blanchet , Jingchen Liu

We investigate maxima of linear processes with i.i.d. heavy-tailed innovations and random coefficients. Using the point process approach we derive functional convergence of the partial maxima stochastic process in the space of…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-10-05 Danijel Krizmanić

We investigate a way of comparing and classifying tails of random variables. Our approach extends the notion of classical indices, such as exponential and moment indices, which are widely used measuring heaviness of tail functions. A…

Probability · Mathematics 2013-10-07 Jaakko Lehtomaa

We study sample-path large deviations for L\'evy processes and random walks with heavy-tailed jump-size distributions that are of Weibull type. Our main results include an extended form of an LDP (large deviations principle) in the $J_1$…

Probability · Mathematics 2019-12-06 Mihail Bazhba , Jose Blanchet , Chang-Han Rhee , Bert Zwart

In this paper we study the large deviation behavior of sums of i.i.d. random variables X_i defined on a supercritical Galton-Watson process Z. We assume the finiteness of the moments EX_1^2 and EZ_1log Z_1. The underlying interplay of the…

Probability · Mathematics 2007-06-13 Klaus Fleischmann , Vitali Wachtel

This article discusses modelling of the tail of a multivariate distribution function by means of a large deviation principle (LDP), and its application to the estimation of the probability of a multivariate extreme event from a sample of n…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2017-02-23 Cees de Valk

Several classical results on boundary crossing probabilities of Brownian motion and random walks are extended to asymptotically Gaussian random fields, which include sums of i.i.d. random variables with multidimensional indices,…

Probability · Mathematics 2007-05-23 Hock Peng Chan , Tze Leung Lai