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We derive the stochastic version of the Magnus expansion for linear systems of stochastic differential equations (SDEs). The main novelty with respect to the related literature is that we consider SDEs in the It\^o sense, with progressively…
Approximate Bayesian inference methods that scale to very large datasets are crucial in leveraging probabilistic models for real-world time series. Sparse Markovian Gaussian processes combine the use of inducing variables with efficient…
We propose a methodology to address two analysis problems concerning complex systems, namely bounding state functionals of stochastic differential equations (SDEs) and verifying set avoidance of systems described by partial differential…
In this article, we show how the theory of rough paths can be used to provide a notion of solution to a class of nonlinear stochastic PDEs of Burgers type that exhibit too high spatial roughness for classical analytical methods to apply. In…
Correlation and smoothness are terms used to describe a wide variety of random quantities. In time, space, and many other domains, they both imply the same idea: quantities that occur closer together are more similar than those further…
Gaussian processes (GPs) are widely used in non-parametric Bayesian modeling, and play an important role in various statistical and machine learning applications. In a variety tasks of uncertainty quantification, generating random sample…
This paper proposes new methodology for sequential state and parameter estimation within the ensemble Kalman filter. The method is fully Bayesian and propagates the joint posterior density of states and parameters over time. In order to…
We study the Allen-Cahn equation with a cubic-quintic nonlinear term and a stochastic $Q$-trace-class stochastic forcing in two spatial dimensions. This stochastic partial differential equation (SPDE) is used as a test case to understand,…
We propose a two-stage method called \textit{Spline Assisted Partial Differential Equation based Model Identification (SAPDEMI)} to identify partial differential equation (PDE)-based models from noisy data. In the first stage, we employ the…
A Bayesian approach to nonlinear inverse problems is considered where the unknown quantity (input) is a random spatial field. The forward model is complex and non-linear, therefore computationally expensive. An emulator-based methodology is…
Stochastic differential equations (SDEs) provide a natural framework for modelling intrinsic stochasticity inherent in many continuous-time physical processes. When such processes are observed in multiple individuals or experimental units,…
The reconstruction and inference of stochastic dynamical systems from data is a fundamental task in inverse problems and statistical learning. While surrogate modeling advances computational methods to approximate these dynamics, standard…
In this paper, we analyze Gaussian processes using statistical mechanics. Although the input is originally multidimensional, we simplify our model by considering the input as one-dimensional for statistical mechanical analysis. Furthermore,…
We provide a flexible framework for selecting among a class of additive partial linear models that allows both linear and nonlinear additive components. In practice, it is challenging to determine which additive components should be…
Spurred on by recent successes in causal inference competitions, Bayesian nonparametric (and high-dimensional) methods have recently seen increased attention in the causal inference literature. In this paper, we present a comprehensive…
Parameter identification problems in partial differential equations (PDEs) consist in determining one or more functional coefficient in a PDE. In this article, the Bayesian nonparametric approach to such problems is considered. Focusing on…
This paper deals with Gibbs samplers that include high dimensional conditional Gaussian distributions. It proposes an efficient algorithm that avoids the high dimensional Gaussian sampling and relies on a random excursion along a small set…
In a variety of disciplines such as social sciences, psychology, medicine and economics, the recorded data are considered to be noisy measurements of latent variables connected by some causal structure. This corresponds to a family of…
In a variety of disciplines such as social sciences, psychology, medicine and economics, the recorded data are considered to be noisy measurements of latent variables connected by some causal structure. This corresponds to a family of…
Let $L$ be a linear differential operator acting on functions defined over an open set $\mathcal{D}\subset \mathbb{R}^d$. In this article, we characterize the measurable second order random fields $U = (U(x))_{x\in\mathcal{D}}$ whose sample…