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A Galton-Watson process in varying environment is a discrete time branching process where the offspring distributions vary among generations. Based on a two-spine decomposition technique, we provide a probabilistic argument of a Yaglom-type…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-10-16 Natalia Cardona-Tobón , Sandra Palau

For any branching process, we demonstrate that the typical total number $r_{\rm mp}(\nu \tau)$ of events triggered over all generations within any sufficiently large time window $\tau$ exhibits, at criticality, a super-linear dependence…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2015-06-15 A. Saichev , D. Sornette

We consider a branching random walk in the non-boundary case where the additive martingale $W_n$ converges a.s. and in mean to some non-degenerate limit $W_\infty$. We first establish the joint tail distribution of $W_\infty$ and the global…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-04-23 Xinxin Chen , Loïc de Raphélis , Heng Ma

The Weibull function is widely used to describe skew distributions observed in nature. However, the origin of this ubiquity is not always obvious to explain. In the present paper, we consider the well-known Galton-Watson branching process…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2015-05-27 Junghyo Jo , Jean-Yves Fortin , M. Y. Choi

Extinction of an epidemic or a species is a rare event that occurs due to a large, rare stochastic fluctuation. Although the extinction process is dynamically unstable, it follows an optimal path that maximizes the probability of…

Biological Physics · Physics 2010-03-25 Eric Forgoston , Simone Bianco , Leah B. Shaw , Ira B. Schwartz

Motivated by applications to COVID dynamics, we describe a branching process in random environments model $\{Z_n\}$ whose characteristics change when crossing upper and lower thresholds. This introduces a cyclical path behavior involving…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-01-14 Giacomo Francisci , Anand N. Vidyashankar

The asymptotic behavior, as $n\rightarrow \infty $ of the conditional distribution of the number of particles in a decomposable critical branching process $\mathbf{Z}% (m)=(Z_{1}(m),...,Z_{N}(m)),$ with $N$ types of particles at moment…

Probability · Mathematics 2015-09-03 V. A. Vatutin , E. E. Dyakonova

We consider a random walk on $\Z$ that branches at the origin only. In the supercritical regime we establish a law of large number for the maximal position $M_n$. Then we determine all possible limiting law for the sequence $M_n -\alpha n$…

Probability · Mathematics 2012-09-28 Philippe Carmona , Yueyun Hu

We investigate subcritical Galton-Watson branching processes with immigration in a random environment. Using Goldie's implicit renewal theory we show that under general Cram\'er condition the stationary distribution has a power law tail. We…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-02-04 Bojan Basrak , Peter Kevei

Branching Processes in a Random Environment (BPREs) $(Z_n:n\geq0)$ are a generalization of Galton Watson processes where in each generation the reproduction law is picked randomly in an i.i.d. manner. We determine here the upper large…

Probability · Mathematics 2010-04-09 Vincent Bansaye , Christian Boeinghoff

In this paper, we study the Galton-Watson process in the random environment for the particular case when the number of the offsprings in each generation has the fractional linear generation function with random parameters. In this case, the…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-12-01 Dan Han , Stanislav Molchanov , Yanjmaa Jutmaan

We consider a branching random walk on a $d$-ary tree of height $n$ ($n \in \mathbb{N}$), under the presence of a hard wall which restricts each value to be positive, where $d$ is a natural number satisfying $d\geqslant2$. The question of…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-02-23 Rishideep Roy

This paper investigates the optimal harvesting strategy for a single species living in random environments whose growth is given by a regime-switching diffusion. Harvesting acts as a (stochastic) control on the size of the population. The…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2016-08-02 Qingshuo Song , Richard Stockbridge , Chao Zhu

We give a unified treatment of the limit, as the size tends to infinity, of simply generated random trees, including both the well-known result in the standard case of critical Galton--Watson trees and similar but less well-known results in…

Probability · Mathematics 2011-12-05 Svante Janson

We introduce and study the dynamics of an \emph{immortal} critical branching process. In the classic, critical branching process, particles give birth to a single offspring or die at the same rates. Even though the average population is…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-06-22 P. L. Krapivsky , S. Redner

Branching processes are widely used to model phenomena from networks to neuronal avalanching. In a large class of continuous-time branching processes, we study the temporal scaling of the moments of the instant population size, the survival…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2018-12-18 Rosalba Garcia-Millan , Johannes Pausch , Benjamin Walter , Gunnar Pruessner

This paper is a variation on the uniform spanning tree theme. We use random spanning forests to solve the following problem: for a Markov process on a finite set of size $n$, find a probability law on the subsets of any given size $m \leq…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-02-01 Luca Avena , Alexandre Gaudillière

Consider a branching random walk $(G_u)_{u\in \mathbb T}$ on the general linear group $\textrm{GL}(V)$ of a finite dimensional space $V$, where $\mathbb T$ is the associated genealogical tree with nodes $u$. For any starting point $v \in V…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-12-11 Ion Grama , Sebastian Mentemeier , Hui Xiao

The extremal process of a branching random walk is the point measure recording the position of particles alive at time $n$, shifted around the expected position of the minimal position. Madaule proved that this point measure converges, as…

Probability · Mathematics 2018-10-09 Bastien Mallein

We study a class of branching processes in which the offspring distribution is not specified directly but is induced by a cycle of internal colony growth, catastrophic reduction and structured dispersal. The parameters governing growth,…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-05-07 Lucas R. de Lima , Fábio P. Machado