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We consider the problem of forecasting debt recovery from large portfolios of non-performing unsecured consumer loans under management. The state of the art in industry is to use stochastic processes to approximately model payment behaviour…

Computation · Statistics 2022-10-26 Sam Baynes , Simon Cotter , Paul Russell , Edmund Ryan , Timothy Waite

Recently, a class of efficient spectral Monte-Carlo methods was developed in \cite{Feng2025ExponentiallyAS} for solving fractional Poisson equations. These methods fully consider the low regularity of the solution near boundaries and…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2025-10-07 Lisen Ding , Mingyi Wang , Dongling Wang

In this paper we explore ways of numerically computing recursive dynamic monetary risk measures and utility functions. Computationally, this problem suffers from the curse of dimensionality and nested simulations are unfeasible if there are…

Computational Finance · Quantitative Finance 2021-04-13 Hampus Engsner

We propose algorithms for solving high-dimensional Partial Differential Equations (PDEs) that combine a probabilistic interpretation of PDEs, through Feynman-Kac representation, with sparse interpolation. Monte-Carlo methods and…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2022-03-25 Marie Billaud-Friess , Arthur Macherey , Anthony Nouy , Clémentine Prieur

We introduce Monte Carlo methods to compute the solution of elliptic equations with pure Neumann boundary conditions. We first prove that the solution obtained by the stochastic representation has a zero mean value with respect to the…

Probability · Mathematics 2013-08-28 Sylvain Maire , Etienne Tanré

The order of convergence of the Monte Carlo method is 1/2 which means that we need quadruple samples to decrease the error in half in the numerical simulation. Multilevel Monte Carlo methods reach the same order of error by spending less…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2015-02-27 Myoungnyoun Kim , Imbo Sim

We analyse a multilevel Monte Carlo method for the approximation of distribution functions of univariate random variables. Since, by assumption, the target distribution is not known explicitly, approximations have to be used. We provide an…

Probability · Mathematics 2017-06-22 Mike B. Giles , Tigran Nagapetyan , Klaus Ritter

We propose a fully backward representation of semilinear PDEs with application to stochastic control. Based on this, we develop a fully backward Monte-Carlo scheme allowing to generate the regression grid, backwardly in time, as the value…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-09-28 Lucas Izydorczyk , Nadia Oudjane , Francesco Russo

This paper sets up a methodology for approximately solving optimal investment problems using duality methods combined with Monte Carlo simulations. In particular, we show how to tackle high dimensional problems in incomplete markets, where…

Computational Finance · Quantitative Finance 2013-05-16 L C G Rogers , Pawel Zaczkowski

We present an adaptive multilevel Monte Carlo algorithm for solving the stochastic drift-diffusion-Poisson system with non-zero recombination rate. The a-posteriori error is estimated to enable goal-oriented adaptive mesh refinement for the…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2020-07-15 Amirreza Khodadadian , Maryam Parvizi , Clemens Heitzinger

We use the technique of information relaxation to develop a duality-driven iterative approach to obtaining and improving confidence interval estimates for the true value of finite-horizon stochastic dynamic programming problems. We show…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2020-07-29 Nan Chen , Xiang Ma , Yanchu Liu , Wei Yu

We introduce a new approach for amortizing inference in directed graphical models by learning heuristic approximations to stochastic inverses, designed specifically for use as proposal distributions in sequential Monte Carlo methods. We…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-03-09 Brooks Paige , Frank Wood

Stochastic collocation methods for approximating the solution of partial differential equations with random input data (e.g., coefficients and forcing terms) suffer from the curse of dimensionality whereby increases in the stochastic…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2014-05-23 Aretha L. Teckentrup , Peter Jantsch , Clayton G. Webster , Max Gunzburger

A first-order, Monte Carlo ensemble method has been recently introduced for solving parabolic equations with random coefficients in [26], which is a natural synthesis of the ensemble-based, Monte Carlo sampling algorithm and the…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2018-02-19 Yan Luo , Zhu Wang

It is a well-known rule of thumb that approximations of stochastic partial differential equations have essentially twice the order of weak convergence compared to the corresponding order of strong convergence. This is already known for many…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-09-28 Annika Lang

We introduce a new class of Monte Carlo based approximations of expectations of random variables such that their laws are only available via certain discretizations. Sampling from the discretized versions of these laws can typically…

Computation · Statistics 2017-10-17 Dan Crisan , Pierre Del Moral , Jeremie Houssineau , Ajay Jasra

This paper addresses the problem of Monte Carlo approximation of posterior probability distributions. In particular, we have considered a recently proposed technique known as population Monte Carlo (PMC), which is based on an iterative…

Computation · Statistics 2016-06-03 Eugenia Koblents , Joaquín Míguez

The aim of this work is to provide fast and accurate approximation schemes for the Monte Carlo pricing of derivatives in LIBOR market models. Standard methods can be applied to solve the stochastic differential equations of the successive…

Computational Finance · Quantitative Finance 2011-07-20 Antonis Papapantoleon , David Skovmand

Stochastic Differential Equations (SDEs) are used as statistical models in many disciplines. However, intractable likelihood functions for SDEs make inference challenging, and we need to resort to simulation-based techniques to estimate and…

Methodology · Statistics 2014-08-12 Grant Schneider , Peter F. Craigmile , Radu Herbei

Partial differential equation is a powerful tool to characterize various physics systems. In practice, measurement errors are often present and probability models are employed to account for such uncertainties. In this paper, we present a…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-05-23 Xiaoou Li , Jingchen Liu
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