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Beyond conditional average treatment effects, treatments may impact the entire outcome distribution in covariate-dependent ways, for example, by altering the variance or tail risks for specific subpopulations. We propose a novel estimand to…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-03-18 Saksham Jain , Alex Luedtke

We propose a novel conditional diffusion model for contextual portfolio optimization that learns the cross-sectional distribution of next-day stock returns conditioned on high-dimensional asset-specific factors. Our model leverages a…

Portfolio Management · Quantitative Finance 2026-04-17 Xuefeng Gao , Mengying He , Xuedong He

In this paper an iterated function system on the space of distribution functions is built. The inverse problem is introduced and studied by convex optimization problems. Some applications of this method to approximation of distribution…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2007-06-13 Stefano M. Iacus , Davide La Torre

Consider a sequence of real data points $X_1,\ldots, X_n$ with underlying means $\theta^*_1,\dots,\theta^*_n$. This paper starts from studying the setting that $\theta^*_i$ is both piecewise constant and monotone as a function of the index…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-08-05 Chao Gao , Fang Han , Cun-Hui Zhang

At the present time reliably established that probability density functions of gene expression of microarray experiments possess a number of universal properties. First of all these distributions have power asymptotic and secondly the shape…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2015-06-08 Viacheslav Saenko , Yurij Saenko

We develop a diffusion approximation for systems subject to fast random resetting by small amplitudes. Equivalently, this describes systems with frequent but small catastrophes. We demonstrate the validity of the approximation by computing…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2026-02-26 Tobias Galla

Association models for a pair of random elements $X$ and $Y$ (e.g., vectors) are considered which specify the odds ratio function up to an unknown parameter $\bolds\theta$. These models are shown to be semiparametric in the sense that they…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2009-03-05 Gerhard Osius

We present a novel Newton-type method for distributed optimization, which is particularly well suited for stochastic optimization and learning problems. For quadratic objectives, the method enjoys a linear rate of convergence which provably…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2014-05-15 Ohad Shamir , Nathan Srebro , Tong Zhang

In applications involving ordinal predictors, common approaches to reduce dimensionality are either extensions of unsupervised techniques such as principal component analysis, or variable selection procedures that rely on modeling the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2017-10-13 Liliana Forzani , Rodrigo García Arancibia , Pamela Llop , Diego Tomassi

There are many nonparametric objects of interest that are a function of a conditional distribution. One important example is an average treatment effect conditional on a subset of covariates. Many of these objects have a conditional…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-12-25 Victor Chernozhukov , Whitney K. Newey , Vasilis Syrgkanis

We propose to approximate the conditional expectation of a spatial random variable given its nearest-neighbour observations by an additive function. The setting is meaningful in practice and requires no unilateral ordering. It is capable of…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-03-28 Zudi Lu , Arvid Lundervold , Dag Tjøstheim , Qiwei Yao

The direct Gaussian copula model with discrete marginal distributions is an appealing data-analytic tool but poses difficult computational challenges due to its intractable likelihood. A number of approximations/surrogates for the…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-03-08 John Hughes

Methods that rely on proxies, without imposing strong parametric structure, are increasingly used to deal with unobserved variables in causal inference. One influential line of this work reconstructs latent distributions used to identify…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-12 Helen Guo , Ilya Shpitser , Elizabeth L. Ogburn

We obtain bounds to quantify the distributional approximation in the delta method for vector statistics (the sample mean of $n$ independent random vectors) for normal and non-normal limits, measured using smooth test functions. For normal…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-05-11 Robert E. Gaunt , Heather Sutcliffe

In this paper considering the transformation $X=\frac{Y}{1+Y}$, where $Y \sim\text{Lindley}(\theta)$, we propose the unit-Lindley distribution and investigate some of its mathematical properties. A important fact associated with this new…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-01-09 J. Mazucheli , A. F. B. Menezes , S. Chakraborty

For a fixed $T$ and $k \geq 2$, a $k$-dimensional vector stochastic differential equation $dX_t=\mu(X_t, \theta)dt+\nu(X_t)dW_t,$ is studied over a time interval $[0,T]$. Vector of drift parameters $\theta$ is unknown. The dependence in…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-07-19 Miljenko Huzak , Snježana Lubura Strunjak , Andreja Vlahek Štrok

We consider the problem of estimating the unconditional distribution of a post-model-selection estimator. The notion of a post-model-selection estimator here refers to the combined procedure resulting from first selecting a model (e.g., by…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2007-11-08 Hannes Leeb , Benedikt M. Poetscher

We consider the problem of estimating the structural function in nonparametric instrumental regression, where in the presence of an instrument W a response Y is modeled in dependence of an endogenous explanatory variable Z. The proposed…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2015-03-13 Jan Johannes , Maik Schwarz

Given $n$ independent samples from a $d$-dimensional probability distribution, our aim is to generate diffusion-based samples from a distribution obtained by tilting the original, where the degree of tilt is parametrized by $\theta \in…

We study the recovery of the distribution function $F_X$ of a random variable $X$ that is subject to an independent additive random error $\varepsilon$. To be precise, it is assumed that the target variable $X$ is available only in the form…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-10-31 Henrik Kaiser
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