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This paper deals with rare events in a general {interacting gas} at high temperature, by means of Large Deviations Principles. The main result is an LDP for the tagged empirical field, which features the competition of an energy term and an…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-06-17 David Padilla-Garza

The large deviations at Level 2.5 are applied to Markov processes with absorbing states in order to obtain the explicit extinction rate of metastable quasi-stationary states in terms of their empirical time-averaged density and of their…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2022-01-13 Cecile Monthus

The goal of this paper is to supplement the large deviation principle of the Freidlin--Wentzell theory on exit problems for diffusion processes with results of classical central limit theorem kind. We describe a class of situations where…

Probability · Mathematics 2013-10-23 Yuri Bakhtin , Andrzej Swiech

Established populations often exhibit oscillations in their sizes. If a population is isolated, intrinsic stochasticity of elemental processes can ultimately bring it to extinction. Here we study extinction of oscillating populations in a…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2016-03-23 Naftali R. Smith , Baruch Meerson

In this article, we consider a branching random walk on the real-line where displacements coming from the same parent have jointly regularly varying tails. The genealogical structure is assumed to be a supercritical Galton-Watson tree,…

Probability · Mathematics 2022-04-07 Ayan Bhattacharya

We study a generalized discrete-time multi-type Wright-Fisher population process. The mean-field dynamics of the stochastic process is induced by a general replicator difference equation. We prove several results regarding the asymptotic…

Probability · Mathematics 2019-12-06 Alexander Roitershtein , Reza Rastegar , Robert S. Chapkin , Ivan Ivanov

In this addendum we extend Theorem 4.6 on the negative binomial distribution in `Bounds for survival probabilities in supercritical Galton-Watson processes and applications to population genetics' (Journal of Mathematical Biology 92:40,…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-04-07 Reinhard Bürger

We establish a general sufficient condition for a sequence of Galton Watson branching processes in varying environment to converge weakly. This condition extends previous results by allowing offspring distributions to have infinite…

Probability · Mathematics 2014-09-22 Vincent Bansaye , Florian Simatos

We prove a Large Deviations Principle (LDP) for systems of diffusions (particles) interacting through their ranks, when the number of particles tends to infinity. We show that the limiting particle density is given by the unique solution of…

Probability · Mathematics 2017-04-05 Amir Dembo , Mykhaylo Shkolnikov , S. R. Srinivasa Varadhan , Ofer Zeitouni

We consider a critical branching particle system in $\R^d$, composed of individuals of a finite number of types $i\in\{1,...,K\}$. Each individual of type $i$ moves independently according to a symmetric $\alpha_i$-stable motion. We assume…

Probability · Mathematics 2011-07-04 Peter Kevei , Jose Alfredo Lopez Mimbela

The Galton-Watson process is a Markov chain modeling the population size of independently reproducing particles giving birth to $k$ offspring with probability $p_k$, $k\ge0$. In this paper we consider {\it defective} Galton-Watson processes…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-12-13 Serik Sagitov , Carmen Minuesa

We investigate extinction of a long-lived self-regulating stochastic population, caused by intrinsic (demographic) noise. Extinction typically occurs via one of two scenarios depending on whether the absorbing state n=0 is a repelling…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2015-05-13 Michael Assaf , Baruch Meerson

In this work, we study asymptotics of multitype Galton-Watson trees with finitely many types. We consider critical and irreducible offspring distributions such that they belong to the domain of attraction of a stable law, where the…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-07-20 Gabriel Berzunza

We often rely on probabilistic measures -- e.g. event probability or expected time -- to characterize systems' safety. However, determining these quantities for extremely low-probability events is generally challenging, as standard safety…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2026-02-04 Aitor R. Gomez , Manuela L. Bujorianu , Rafal Wisniewski

Conditioning a multitype Galton-Watson process to stay alive into the indefinite future leads to what is known as its associated $Q$-process. We show that the same holds true if the process is conditioned to reach a positive threshold or a…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-03-09 Sophie Pénisson

The large deviation principle on phase space is proved for a class of Markov processes known as random population dynamics with catastrophes. In the paper we study the process which corresponds to the random population dynamics with linear…

Probability · Mathematics 2019-11-18 A. Logachov , O. Logachova , A. Yambartsev

We consider a discrete-time host-parasite model for a population of cells which are colonized by proliferating parasites. The cell population grows like an ordinary Galton-Watson process, but in reflection of real biological settings the…

Probability · Mathematics 2015-05-18 Gerold Alsmeyer , Sören Gröttrup

We derive a large deviation principle for the empirical currents of lattice gas dynamics which combine a fast stirring mechanism (Symmetric Simple Exclusion Process) and creation/annihilation mechanisms (Glauber dynamics). Previous results…

Probability · Mathematics 2010-09-03 T. Bodineau , M. Lagouge

We consider the kinetic theory of dilute gases in the Boltzmann--Grad limit. We propose a new perspective based on a large deviation estimate for the probability of the empirical distribution dynamics. Assuming Boltzmann molecular chaos…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2020-08-26 Freddy Bouchet

In this note, we prove a sharp large derivation principle (LDP) for the cubic nonlinear Schr\"odinger equation with Gaussian random initial data in Fourier Lebesgue spaces. As a consequence, we improve the exponential decay condition in…

Analysis of PDEs · Mathematics 2025-12-09 Rui Liang , Yuzhao Wang