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Based on the principles of importance sampling and resampling, sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) encompasses a large set of powerful techniques dealing with complex stochastic dynamic systems. Many of these systems possess strong memory, with…

Bayesian inference for models that have an intractable partition function is known as a doubly intractable problem, where standard Monte Carlo methods are not applicable. The past decade has seen the development of auxiliary variable Monte…

In a recent paper Beskos et al (2011), the Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) sampler introduced in Del Moral et al (2006), Neal (2001) has been shown to be asymptotically stable in the dimension of the state space d at a cost that is only…

Quasi-Monte Carlo (QMC) methods for estimating integrals are attractive since the resulting estimators typically converge at a faster rate than pseudo-random Monte Carlo. However, they can be difficult to set up on arbitrary posterior…

Sequential Monte Carlo squared (SMC$^2$) methods can be used for parameter inference of intractable likelihood state-space models. These methods replace the likelihood with an unbiased particle filter estimator, similarly to particle Markov…

We propose a sequential Markov chain Monte Carlo (SMCMC) algorithm to sample from a sequence of probability distributions, corresponding to posterior distributions at different times in on-line applications. SMCMC proceeds as in usual MCMC…

We address the problem of approximating the posterior probability distribution of the fixed parameters of a state-space dynamical system using a sequential Monte Carlo method. The proposed approach relies on a nested structure that employs…

This paper brings explicit considerations of distributed computing architectures and data structures into the rigorous design of Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) methods. A theoretical result established recently by the authors shows that…

This paper addresses finite sample stability properties of sequential Monte Carlo methods for approximating sequences of probability distributions. The results presented herein are applicable in the scenario where the start and end…

State space models (SSM) have been widely applied for the analysis and visualization of large sequential datasets. Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) is a very popular particle-based method to sample latent states from intractable posteriors.…

The iterated conditional sequential Monte Carlo (i-CSMC) algorithm from Andrieu, Doucet and Holenstein (2010) is an MCMC approach for efficiently sampling from the joint posterior distribution of the $T$ latent states in challenging…

In statistical data assimilation one seeks the largest maximum of the conditional probability distribution $P(\mathbf{X},\mathbf{p}|\mathbf{Y})$ of model states, $\mathbf{X}$, and parameters,$\mathbf{p}$, conditioned on observations…

Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) methods are standard tools for inferring parameters of complex models when the likelihood function is analytically intractable. A popular approach to improving the poor acceptance rate of the basic…

The problem of optimising functions with intractable gradients frequently arise in machine learning and statistics, ranging from maximum marginal likelihood estimation procedures to fine-tuning of generative models. Stochastic approximation…

We present a sequential Monte Carlo sampler variant of the partial rejection control algorithm, and show that this variant can be considered as a sequential Monte Carlo sampler with a modified mutation kernel. We prove that the new sampler…

We propose a novel class of Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) algorithms, appropriate for inference in probabilistic graphical models. This class of algorithms adopts a divide-and-conquer approach based upon an auxiliary tree-structured…

We consider the problem of high-dimensional filtering of state-space models (SSMs) at discrete times. This problem is particularly challenging as analytical solutions are typically not available and many numerical approximation methods can…

Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) methods are not only a popular tool in the analysis of state space models, but offer an alternative to MCMC in situations where Bayesian inference must proceed via simulation. This paper introduces a new SMC…

We propose a new framework for how to use sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) algorithms for inference in probabilistic graphical models (PGM). Via a sequential decomposition of the PGM we find a sequence of auxiliary distributions defined on a…

One of the key challenges in identifying nonlinear and possibly non-Gaussian state space models (SSMs) is the intractability of estimating the system state. Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) methods, such as the particle filter (introduced more…