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This paper investigates change point detection in state space models, in which the pre-change distribution $f^{\theta_0}$ is given, while the poster distribution $f^{\theta}$ after change is unknown. The problem is to raise an alarm as soon…

Probability · Mathematics 2019-06-11 Cheng-Der Fuh

In the 1960s, Shiryaev developed a Bayesian theory of change-point detection in the i.i.d. case, which was generalized in the beginning of the 2000s by Tartakovsky and Veeravalli for general stochastic models assuming a certain stability of…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-07-05 Chen-Der Fuh , Alexander G. Tartakovsky

For the classical continuous-time quickest change-point detection problem it is shown that the randomized Shiryaev-Roberts-Pollak procedure is asymptotically nearly minimax-optimal (in the sense of Pollak 1985) in the class of randomized…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2017-04-12 Aleksey S. Polunchenko

We consider the quickest change-point detection problem in pointwise and minimax settings for general dependent data models. Two new classes of sequential detection procedures associated with the maximal "local" probability of a false alarm…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-01-18 Serguei M. Pergamenchtchikov , Alexander G. Tartakovsky

A weighted Shiryaev-Roberts change detection procedure is shown to approximately minimize the expected delay to detection as well as higher moments of the detection delay among all change-point detection procedures with the given low…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-09-04 Serguei Pergamenchtchikov , Alexander G. Tartakovsky

We consider the simple changepoint problem setting, where observations are independent, iid pre-change and iid post-change, with known pre- and post-change distributions. The Shiryaev-Roberts detection procedure is known to be…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2010-06-07 Moshe Pollak , Alexander G. Tartakovsky

The paper addresses a sequential changepoint detection problem for a general stochastic model, assuming that the observed data may be non-i.i.d. (i.e., dependent and non-identically distributed) and the prior distribution of the change…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-07-25 Alexander G. Tartakovsky

We consider a sequential Bayesian changepoint detection problem for a general stochastic model, assuming that the observed data may be dependent and non-identically distributed and the prior distribution of the change point is arbitrary,…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-01-15 Alexander G. Tartakovsky

In 1985, for detecting a change in distribution, Pollak introduced a specific minimax performance metric and a randomized version of the Shiryaev-Roberts procedure where the zero initial condition is replaced by a random variable sampled…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2015-03-13 Aleksey S. Polunchenko , Alexander G. Tartakovsky

We consider a unified framework of sequential change-point detection and hypothesis testing modeled by means of hidden Markov chains. One observes a sequence of random variables whose distributions are functionals of a hidden Markov chain.…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2013-12-13 Savas Dayanik , Kazutoshi Yamazaki

The problem of detection and possible estimation of a signal generated by a dynamic system when a variable number of noisy measurements can be taken is here considered. Assuming a Markov evolution of the system (in particular, the pair…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2022-05-12 Emanuele Grossi , Marco Lops

For the most popular sequential change detection rules such as CUSUM, EWMA, and the Shiryaev-Roberts test, we develop integral equations and a concise numerical method to compute a number of performance metrics, including average detection…

Computation · Statistics 2011-09-15 George V. Moustakides , Aleksey S. Polunchenko , Alexander G. Tartakovsky

Several variations of the Shiryaev-Roberts detection procedure in the context of the simple changepoint problem are considered: starting the procedure at $R_0=0$ (the original Shiryaev-Roberts procedure), at $R_0=r$ for fixed $r>0$, and at…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2015-03-17 Alexander G. Tartakovsky , Moshe Pollak , Aleksey S. Polunchenko

This paper deals with the problem of asymptotically optimal detection of changes in regime-switching stochastic models. We need to divide the whole obtained sample of data into several sub-samples with observations belonging to different…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2013-01-25 Boris Brodsky , Boris Darkhovsky

A novel sequential change detection problem is proposed, in which the goal is to not only detect but also accelerate the change. Specifically, it is assumed that the sequentially collected observations are responses to treatments selected…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-06-24 Yanglei Song , Georgios Fellouris

A Markov process is registered. At random moment $\theta$ the distribution of observed sequence changes. Using probability maximizing approach the optimal stopping rule for detecting the change is identified. Some explicit solution is…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-11-23 Wojciech Sarnowski , Krzysztof Szajowski

The gist of the quickest change-point detection problem is to detect the presence of a change in the statistical behavior of a series of sequentially made observations, and do so in an optimal detection-speed-vs.-"false-positive"-risk…

Computation · Statistics 2015-04-21 Wenyu Du , Aleksey S. Polunchenko , Grigory Sokolov

We consider the quickest change-point detection problem where the aim is to detect the onset of a pre-specified drift in "live"-monitored standard Brownian motion; the change-point is assumed unknown (nonrandom). The object of interest is…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-04-19 Aleksey S. Polunchenko

Assume that there are multiple data streams (channels, sensors) and in each stream the process of interest produces generally dependent and non-identically distributed observations. When the process is in a normal mode (in-control), the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-07-25 Alexander Tartakovsky

Recent attention in quickest change detection in the multi-sensor setting has been on the case where the densities of the observations change at the same instant at all the sensors due to the disruption. In this work, a more general…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2016-11-18 Vasanthan Raghavan , Venugopal V. Veeravalli
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