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The Bayesian approach to machine learning amounts to computing posterior distributions of random variables from a probabilistic model of how the variables are related (that is, a prior distribution) and a set of observations of variables.…

Logic in Computer Science · Computer Science 2015-07-01 Johannes Borgström , Andrew D Gordon , Michael Greenberg , James Margetson , Jurgen Van Gael

This work studies the variation in Kullback-Leibler divergence between random draws from some popular nonparametric processes and their baseline measure. In particular we focus on the Dirichlet process, the P\'olya tree and the frequentist…

Methodology · Statistics 2014-11-25 James Watson , Luis Nieto-Barajas , Chris Holmes

We present a general framework for Bayesian inference of causal effects that delivers provably robust inferences founded on design-based randomization of treatments. The framework involves fixing the observed potential outcomes and forming…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-11-04 Easton Huch , Fred Feinberg , Walter Dempsey

Variable selection and classification are common objectives in the analysis of high-dimensional data. Most such methods make distributional assumptions that may not be compatible with the diverse families of distributions data can take. A…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-08-28 Weichang Yu , Lamiae Azizi , John T. Ormerod

A common task in experimental sciences is to fit mathematical models to real-world measurements to improve understanding of natural phenomenon (reverse-engineering or inverse modeling). When complex dynamical systems are considered, such as…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2018-06-18 Jean-Charles Croix , Nicolas Durrande , Mauricio Alvarez

Gene-gene interactions are often regarded as playing significant roles in influencing variabilities of complex traits. Although much research has been devoted to this area, to date a comprehensive statistical model that addresses the…

Applications · Statistics 2018-04-18 Durba Bhattacharya , Sourabh Bhattacharya

This paper offers a comprehensive introduction to Bayesian inference, combining historical context, theoretical foundations, and core analytical examples. Beginning with Bayes' theorem and the philosophical distinctions between Bayesian and…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-12-08 Juan Sosa , Carlos A. Martínez , Danna Cruz

Gaussian graphical models, where it is assumed that the variables of interest jointly follow a multivariate normal distribution with a sparse precision matrix, have been used to study intrinsic dependence among variables, but the normality…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-05-20 Jami J. Mulgrave , Subhashis Ghosal

Feature and trait allocation models are fundamental objects in Bayesian nonparametrics and play a prominent role in several applications. Existing approaches, however, typically assume full exchangeability of the data, which may be…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-11-11 Lorenzo Ghilotti , Federico Camerlenghi , Tommaso Rigon , Michele Guindani

Dirichlet process mixtures are particularly sensitive to the value of the precision parameter controlling the behavior of the latent partition. Randomization of the precision through a prior distribution is a common solution, which leads to…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-09-04 Alessandro Zito , Tommaso Rigon , David B. Dunson

We generalize the Poisson limit theorem to binary functions of random objects whose law is invariant under the action of an amenable group. Examples include stationary random fields, exchangeable sequences, and exchangeable graphs. A…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-01-19 Haoyu Ye , Peter Orbanz , Morgane Austern

Copula-based dependence modeling often relies on parametric formulations. This is mathematically convenient, but can be statistically inefficient when the parametric families are not suitable for the data and model in focus. A Bayesian…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-05-01 Ruyi Pan , Luis E. Nieto-Barajas , Radu V. Craiu

Despite exceptional predictive performance of Deep sequence models (DSMs), the main concern of their deployment centers around the lack of uncertainty awareness. In contrast, probabilistic models quantify the uncertainty associated with…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-03 Wenlong Chen

Neutral to the right (NTR) processes were introduced by Doksum in 1974 as Bayesian priors on the class of distributions on the real line. Since that time there have been numerous applications to models that arise in survival analysis…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2007-06-13 Lancelot F. James

We introduce a natural conjugate prior for the transition matrix of a reversible Markov chain. This allows estimation and testing. The prior arises from random walk with reinforcement in the same way the Dirichlet prior arises from…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2007-06-13 Persi Diaconis , Silke W. W. Rolles

The emergent field of probabilistic numerics has thus far lacked clear statistical principals. This paper establishes Bayesian probabilistic numerical methods as those which can be cast as solutions to certain inverse problems within the…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-11-15 Jon Cockayne , Chris Oates , Tim Sullivan , Mark Girolami

This paper explores large sample properties of the two-parameter $(\alpha,\theta)$ Poisson--Dirichlet Process in two contexts. In a Bayesian context of estimating an unknown probability measure, viewing this process as a natural extension…

Probability · Mathematics 2008-05-21 Lancelot F. James

Bayesian methods are actively used for parameter identification and uncertainty quantification when solving nonlinear inverse problems with random noise. However, there are only few theoretical results justifying the Bayesian approach.…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-02-04 Vladimir Spokoiny

We provide a complete framework for performing infinite-dimensional Bayesian inference and uncertainty quantification for image reconstruction with Poisson data. In particular, we address the following issues to make the Bayesian framework…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2019-10-22 Qingping Zhou , Tengchao Yu , Xiaoqun Zhang , Jinglai Li

We introduce non-stationary Mat\'ern field priors with stochastic partial differential equations, and construct correlation length-scaling with hyperpriors. We model both the hyperprior and the Mat\'ern prior as continuous-parameter random…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-12-12 Lassi Roininen , Mark Girolami , Sari Lasanen , Markku Markkanen