Related papers: Moderate deviation principle for ergodic Markov ch…

A family $\{Q_{\beta}\}_{\beta \geq 0}$ of Markov chains is said to exhibit $\textit{metastable mixing}$ with $\textit{modes}$ $S_{\beta}^{(1)},\ldots,S_{\beta}^{(k)}$ if its spectral gap (or some other mixing property) is very close to the…

We consider a Markov chain $\{X_n\}_{n=0}^\8$ on $\R^d$ defined by the stochastic recursion $X_{n}=M_n X_{n-1}+Q_n$, where $(Q_n,M_n)$ are i.i.d. random variables taking values in the affine group $H=\R^d\rtimes {\rm GL}(\R^d)$. Assume that…

The spectral gap of a Markov chain can be bounded by the spectral gaps of constituent "restriction" chains and a "projection" chain, and the strength of such a bound is the content of various decomposition theorems. In this paper, we…

We analyse the $\ell^2(\pi)$-convergence rate of irreducible and aperiodic Markov chains with $N$-band transition probability matrix $P$ and with invariant distribution $\pi$. This analysis is heavily based on: first the study of the…

Let $X:=(X_t)_{t\geq 0}$ be an ergodic Markov process on $\real^d$, and $p>0$. We derive upper bounds of the $p$-Wasserstein distance between the invariant measure and the empirical measures of the Markov process $X$. For this we assume,…

A new approach to computation of optimal policies for MDP (Markov decision process) models is introduced. The main idea is to solve not one, but an entire family of MDPs, parameterized by a weighting factor $\zeta$ that appears in the…

This paper considers large families of Markov chains (MCs) that are defined over a set of parameters with finite discrete domains. Such families occur in software product lines, planning under partial observability, and sketching of…

We view the classical Lindeberg principle in a Markov process setting to establish a probability approximation framework by the associated It\^{o}'s formula and Markov operator. As applications, we study the error bounds of the following…

This paper studies the subgeometric convergence of the stationary distribution in taking the infinite-level limit of a finite-level M/G/1-type Markov chain, that is, in letting the upper boundary level go to infinity. This study is…

Consider a population of individuals belonging to an infinity number of types, and assume that type proportions follow the two-parameter Poisson-Dirichlet distribution. A sample of size n is selected from the population. The total number of…

In this paper we are concerned with hitting times of a family of density-dependent Markov chains. A moderate deviation principle of the hitting time is given. The proof of the main theorem relies heavily on moderate deviations of…

Let $A_N$ be distributed according to the Haar probability measure on the orthogonal group $\mathscr{O}(N)$ for each $N\in\mathbb{N}$. It is well-known that the upper left $m_N\times k_N$ block of $\sqrt{N}A_N$ with $m_Nk_N = o(N)$…

Here, we explore the problem of error propagation mitigation in modular digital twins as a sequential decision process. Building on a companion study that used a Hidden Markov Model (HMM) to infer latent error regimes from surrogate-physics…

Markov decision processes (MDPs) are known to be sensitive to parameter specification. Distributionally robust MDPs alleviate this issue by allowing for \emph{ambiguity sets} which give a set of possible distributions over parameter sets.…

We establish a new Bernstein-type deviation inequality for general (non-reversible) discrete-time Markov chains via an elementary approach. More robust than existing works in the literature, our result only requires the Markov chain to…

We prove that moderate deviations for empirical measures for countable nonhomogeneous Markov chains hold under the assumption of uniform convergence of transition probability matrices for countable nonhomogeneous Markov chains in Ces\`aro…

We study the limit behaviour of a generally non-linear ordinary differential equation whose solution is a superadditive generalisation of a stochastic matrix, and provide necessary and sufficient conditions for this solution to be ergodic,…

Given access to a single long trajectory generated by an unknown irreducible Markov chain $M$, we simulate an $\alpha$-lazy version of $M$ which is ergodic. This enables us to generalize recent results on estimation and identity testing…

This paper develops an optimal Chernoff type bound for the probabilities of large deviations of sums $\sum_{k=1}^n f (X_k)$ where $f$ is a real-valued function and $(X_k)_{k \in \mathbb{Z}_{\ge 0}}$ is a finite state Markov chain with an…

Applying quantitative perturbation theory for linear operators, we prove non-asymptotic limit theorems for Markov chains whose transition kernel has a spectral gap in an arbitrary Banach algebra of functions X . The main results are…