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Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) is a well-established family of Monte Carlo methods for performing approximate Bayesian inference in the case where an ``implicit'' model is used for the data: when the data model can be simulated, but…

The naive importance sampling estimator, based on samples from a single importance density, can be numerically unstable. Instead, we consider generalized importance sampling estimators where samples from more than one probability…

The potential for cascading failure in power systems adds substantially to overall reliability risk. Monte Carlo sampling can be used with a power system model to estimate this impact, but doing so is computationally expensive. This paper…

We propose a hybrid Monte Carlo (HMC) technique applicable to high-dimensional multivariate normal distributions that effectively samples along chaotic trajectories. The method is predicated on the freedom of choice of the HMC momentum…

Mixture models have received considerable attention recently and Newton [Sankhy\={a} Ser. A 64 (2002) 306--322] proposed a fast recursive algorithm for estimating a mixing distribution. We prove almost sure consistency of this recursive…

The Monte Carlo within Metropolis (MCwM) algorithm, interpreted as a perturbed Metropolis-Hastings (MH) algorithm, provides an approach for approximate sampling when the target distribution is intractable. Assuming the unperturbed Markov…

Markov chain Monte Carlo is a class of algorithms for drawing Markovian samples from high-dimensional target densities to approximate the numerical integration associated with computing statistical expectation, especially in Bayesian…

In this paper we present a novel methodology to perform Bayesian model selection in linear models with heavy-tailed distributions. We consider a finite mixture of distributions to model a latent variable where each component of the mixture…

In this article we consider Bayesian estimation of static parameters for a class of partially observed McKean-Vlasov diffusion processes with discrete-time observations over a fixed time interval. This problem features several obstacles to…

Bayesian models have become very popular over the last years in several fields such as signal processing, statistics, and machine learning. Bayesian inference requires the approximation of complicated integrals involving posterior…

We propose a sequential Markov chain Monte Carlo (SMCMC) algorithm to sample from a sequence of probability distributions, corresponding to posterior distributions at different times in on-line applications. SMCMC proceeds as in usual MCMC…

Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods asymptotically sample from complex probability distributions. The pseudo-marginal MCMC framework only requires an unbiased estimator of the unnormalized probability distribution function to construct…

Bayesian filtering aims at tracking sequentially a hidden process from an observed one. In particular, sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) techniques propagate in time weighted trajectories which represent the posterior probability density…

This paper proposes an approach to training rough set models using Bayesian framework trained using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method. The prior probabilities are constructed from the prior knowledge that good rough set models have…

Estimating model parameters of a general family of cure models is always a challenging task mainly due to flatness and multimodality of the likelihood function. In this work, we propose a fully Bayesian approach in order to overcome these…

The parameters of a discrete stationary Markov model are transition probabilities between states. Traditionally, data consist in sequences of observed states for a given number of individuals over the whole observation period. In such a…

Multivariate Hawkes Processes (MHPs) are a class of point processes that can account for complex temporal dynamics among event sequences. In this work, we study the accuracy and computational efficiency of three classes of algorithms which,…

In epidemiological or demographic studies, with variable age at onset, a typical quantity of interest is the incidence of a disease (for example the cancer incidence). In these studies, the individuals are usually highly heterogeneous in…

Application of discrete-time survival methods for continuous-time survival prediction is considered. For this purpose, a scheme for discretization of continuous-time data is proposed by considering the quantiles of the estimated event-time…

In this paper we consider the problem of parameter inference for Markov jump process (MJP) representations of stochastic kinetic models. Since transition probabilities are intractable for most processes of interest yet forward simulation is…