Related papers: Efficient Estimation of Stochastic Volatility Usin…
We extend the classical mean-variance (MV) framework and propose a robust and sparse portfolio selection model incorporating an ellipsoidal uncertainty set to reduce the impact of estimation errors and fixed transaction costs to penalize…
We formulate a discrete-time Bayesian stochastic volatility model for high-frequency stock-market data that directly accounts for microstructure noise, and outline a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm for parameter estimation. The methods…
This paper develops a quantitative framework for analyzing the mean-square exponential stabilization of stochastic linear systems with multiplicative noise, focusing specifically on the optimal stabilizing rate, which characterizes the…
In many astrophysical settings covariance matrices of large datasets have to be determined empirically from a finite number of mock realisations. The resulting noise degrades inference and precludes it completely if there are fewer…
Correlation between microstructure noise and latent financial logarithmic returns is an empirically relevant phenomenon with sound theoretical justification. With few notable exceptions, all integrated variance estimators proposed in the…
The analysis of high-frequency financial data is often impeded by the presence of noise. This article is motivated by intraday return data in which market microstructure noise appears to be rough, that is, best captured by a continuous-time…
We develop a nonparametric test for deciding whether volatility of an asset follows a standard semimartingale process, with paths of finite quadratic variation, or a rough process with paths of infinite quadratic variation. The test…
In this paper, we show how to estimate the asymptotic (conditional) covariance matrix, which appears in central limit theorems in high-frequency estimation of asset return volatility. We provide a recipe for the estimation of this matrix by…
Based on a criterium of mathematical simplicity and consistency with empirical market data, a stochastic volatility model has been obtained with the volatility process driven by fractional noise. Depending on whether the stochasticity…
Optimal estimation of a coin's bias using noisy data is surprisingly different from the same problem with noiseless data. We study this problem using entropy risk to quantify estimators' accuracy. We generalize the "add Beta" estimators…
This study provides a consistent and efficient pricing method for both Standard & Poor's 500 Index (SPX) options and the Chicago Board Options Exchange's Volatility Index (VIX) options under a multiscale stochastic volatility model. To…
This paper analyzes the benefits of sampling intraday returns in intrinsic time for the realized variance (RV) estimator. We theoretically show in finite samples that depending on the permitted sampling information, the RV estimator is most…
This paper develops a two-step estimation methodology, which allows us to apply catastrophe theory to stock market returns with time-varying volatility and model stock market crashes. Utilizing high frequency data, we estimate the daily…
In model-free deep reinforcement learning (RL) algorithms, using noisy value estimates to supervise policy evaluation and optimization is detrimental to the sample efficiency. As this noise is heteroscedastic, its effects can be mitigated…
Estimating volatility from recent high frequency data, we revisit the question of the smoothness of the volatility process. Our main result is that log-volatility behaves essentially as a fractional Brownian motion with Hurst exponent H of…
The optimal rate of convergence of estimators of the integrated volatility, for a discontinuous It\^{o} semimartingale sampled at regularly spaced times and over a fixed time interval, has been a long-standing problem, at least when the…
We consider the problem of estimating the asymptotic variance of a function defined on a Markov chain, an important step for statistical inference of the stationary mean. We design a novel recursive estimator that requires $O(1)$…
I present an analytic method for estimating the errors in fitting a distribution. A well-known theorem from statistics gives the minimum variance bound (MVB) for the uncertainty in estimating a set of parameters $\l_i$, when a distribution…
This paper discusses the efficient Bayesian estimation of a multivariate factor stochastic volatility (Factor MSV) model with leverage. We propose a novel approach to construct the sampling schemes that converges to the posterior…
In this paper, we present a method of estimating the volatility of a signal that displays stochastic noise (such as a risky asset traded on an open market) utilizing Linear Predictive Coding. The main purpose is to associate volatility with…