Related papers: Asymptotic global robustness in bayesian decision …

Bayesian optimization is a framework for global search via maximum a posteriori updates rather than simulated annealing, and has gained prominence for decision-making under uncertainty. In this work, we cast Bayesian optimization as a…

Experiments on decision making under uncertainty are known to display a classical pattern of risk aversion and risk seeking referred to as "fourfold pattern" (or "reflection effect") , but recent experiments varying the speed and order of…

Aleatoric uncertainty captures the inherent randomness of the data, such as measurement noise. In Bayesian regression, we often use a Gaussian observation model, where we control the level of aleatoric uncertainty with a noise variance…

Scenarios requiring humans to choose from multiple seemingly optimal actions are commonplace, however standard imitation learning often fails to capture this behavior. Instead, an over-reliance on replicating expert actions induces…

This paper develops a Bayesian framework for robust causal inference from longitudinal observational data. Many contemporary methods rely on structural assumptions, such as factor models, to adjust for unobserved confounding, but they can…

We study the rate of Bayesian consistency for hierarchical priors consisting of prior weights on a model index set and a prior on a density model for each choice of model index. Ghosal, Lember and Van der Vaart [2] have obtained general…

We identify the critical deviation scale governing Bayesian evidence accumulation in regular parametric testing. Under integrated Bayes risk with zero-one loss, the risk-optimal rejection boundary lies in a moderate deviation regime, with a…

The random dot product graph is a popular model for network data with extensions that accommodate dynamic (time-varying) networks. However, two significant deficiencies exist in the dynamic random dot product graph literature: (1) no…

Optimization models used to make discrete decisions often contain uncertain parameters that are context-dependent and estimated through prediction. To account for the quality of the decision made based on the prediction, decision-focused…

Most of the consistency analyses of Bayesian procedures for variable selection in regression refer to pairwise consistency, that is, consistency of Bayes factors. However, variable selection in regression is carried out in a given class of…

We propose a novel approach to Bayesian analysis that is provably robust to outliers in the data and often has computational advantages over standard methods. Our technique is based on splitting the data into non-overlapping subgroups,…

Expected improvement (EI) is one of the most widely used acquisition functions in Bayesian optimization (BO). Despite its proven success in applications for decades, important open questions remain on the theoretical convergence behaviors…

Isotonic regression or monotone function estimation is a problem of estimating function values under monotonicity constraints, which appears naturally in many scientific fields. This paper proposes a new Bayesian method with global-local…

In safety-critical deep learning applications, robustness measures the ability of neural models that handle imperceptible perturbations in input data, which may lead to potential safety hazards. Existing pre-deployment robustness assessment…

Ordinal response model is a popular and commonly used regression for ordered categorical data in a wide range of fields such as medicine and social sciences. However, it is empirically known that the existence of ``outliers'', combinations…

Adversarial examples pose a security threat to many critical systems built on neural networks. While certified training improves robustness, it also decreases accuracy noticeably. Despite various proposals for addressing this issue, the…

This paper studies the influence of perturbations of conjugate priors in Bayesian inference. A perturbed prior is defined inside a larger family, local mixture models, and the effect on posterior inference is studied. The perturbation, in…

Bayesian optimization is a powerful global optimization technique for expensive black-box functions. One of its shortcomings is that it requires auxiliary optimization of an acquisition function at each iteration. This auxiliary…

We consider Bayesian optimization of the output of a network of functions, where each function takes as input the output of its parent nodes, and where the network takes significant time to evaluate. Such problems arise, for example, in…

We develop a general theory to optimize the frequentist regret for sequential learning problems, where efficient bandit and reinforcement learning algorithms can be derived from unified Bayesian principles. We propose a novel optimization…