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Many events and policies (treatments) occur at specific spatial locations, with researchers interested in their effects on nearby units. I approach the spatial treatment setting from an experimental perspective: What ideal experiment would…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-04-27 Michael Pollmann

An important problem in econometrics and marketing is to infer the causal impact that a designed market intervention has exerted on an outcome metric over time. This paper proposes to infer causal impact on the basis of a…

Applications · Statistics 2015-06-02 Kay H. Brodersen , Fabian Gallusser , Jim Koehler , Nicolas Remy , Steven L. Scott

Causal inference is widely used in various fields, such as biology, psychology and economics, etc. In observational studies, we need to balance the covariates before estimating causal effect. This study extends the one-dimensional entropy…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-05-19 Juan Chen , Yingchun Zhou

We propose a novel training regime termed counterfactual training that leverages counterfactual explanations to increase the explanatory capacity of models. Counterfactual explanations have emerged as a popular post-hoc explanation method…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-01-23 Patrick Altmeyer , Aleksander Buszydlik , Arie van Deursen , Cynthia C. S. Liem

Counterfactual reasoning aims at answering contrary-to-fact questions like ``Would have Alice recovered had she taken aspirin?'' and corresponds to the most fine-grained layer of causation. Critically, while many counterfactual statements…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-09-23 Lucas de Lara

In classical study designs, the aim is often to learn about the effects of a treatment or intervention on a single outcome; in many modern studies, however, data on multiple outcomes are collected and it is of interest to explore effects on…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-06-15 Edward H. Kennedy , Shreya Kangovi , Nandita Mitra

Every design choice will have different effects on different units. However traditional A/B tests are often underpowered to identify these heterogeneous effects. This is especially true when the set of unit-level attributes is…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2016-11-09 Alexander Peysakhovich , Akos Lada

When primary objectives are insensitive or delayed, experimenters may instead focus on proxy metrics derived from secondary outcomes. For example, technology companies often infer the long-term impacts of product interventions from their…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-07-31 Aurélien Bibaut , Winston Chou , Simon Ejdemyr , Nathan Kallus

When a new treatment is considered for use, whether a pharmaceutical drug or a search engine ranking algorithm, a typical question that arises is, will its performance exceed that of the current treatment? The conventional way to answer…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2016-10-27 Nir Rosenfeld , Yishay Mansour , Elad Yom-Tov

Counterfactual reasoning allows us to explore hypothetical scenarios in order to explain the impacts of our decisions. However, addressing such inquires is impossible without establishing the appropriate mathematical framework. In this…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-25 Kurt Butler , Marija Iloska , Petar M. Djuric

Graphical models can represent a multivariate distribution in a convenient and accessible form as a graph. Causal models can be viewed as a special class of graphical models that not only represent the distribution of the observed system…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-06-29 Christina Heinze-Deml , Marloes H. Maathuis , Nicolai Meinshausen

The past decade has seen an increasing body of literature devoted to the estimation of causal effects in network-dependent data. However, the validity of many classical statistical methods in such data is often questioned. There is an…

Computation · Statistics 2017-05-31 Oleg Sofrygin , Romain Neugebauer , Mark J. van der Laan

Understanding directed temporal interactions in multivariate time series is essential for interpreting complex dynamical systems and the predictive models trained on them. We present Causal-INSIGHT, a model-agnostic, post-hoc interpretation…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-27 Benjamin Redden , Hui Wang , Shuyan Li

Much research has been devoted to the problem of estimating treatment effects from observational data; however, most methods assume that the observed variables only contain confounders, i.e., variables that affect both the treatment and the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-04-27 Weijia Zhang , Lin Liu , Jiuyong Li

Regression analyses based on transformations of cumulative incidence functions are often adopted when modeling and testing for treatment effects in clinical trial settings involving competing and semi-competing risks. Common frameworks…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-01-11 Alexandra Bühler , Richard J Cook , Jerald F Lawless

In observational studies, the causal effect of a treatment may be confounded with variables that are related to both the treatment and the outcome of interest. In order to identify a causal effect, such studies often rely on the…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-10-17 Emma Persson , Jenny Häggström , Ingeborg Waernbaum , Xavier de Luna

In a real-life setting, little is known regarding the effectiveness of statins for primary prevention among older adults, and analysis of observational data can add crucial information on the benefits of actual patterns of use. Latent class…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-10-18 Awa Diop , Caroline Sirois , Jason Robert Guertin , Denis Talbot

Uplift modeling estimates the causal effect of an intervention as the difference between potential outcomes under treatment and control, whereas counterfactual identification aims to recover the joint distribution of these potential…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-12-10 Théo Verhelst , Gianluca Bontempi

Counterfactual learning has become promising for understanding and modeling causality in complex and dynamic systems. This paper presents a novel method for counterfactual learning in the context of multivariate time series analysis and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-03 Gianlucca Zuin , Adriano Veloso

Structural failure time models are causal models for estimating the effect of time-varying treatments on a survival outcome. G-estimation and artificial censoring have been proposed to estimate the model parameters in the presence of…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-02-19 Shu Yang , Karen Pieper , Frank Cools