Related papers: Binary market models with memory
Binary classification involves predicting the label of an instance based on whether the model score for the positive class exceeds a threshold chosen based on the application requirements (e.g., maximizing recall for a precision bound).…
A market with asymmetric information can be viewed as a repeated exchange game between the informed sector and the uninformed one. In a market with risk-neutral agents, De Meyer [2010] proves that the price process should be a particular…
Inspired by applications in sports where the skill of players or teams competing against each other varies over time, we propose a probabilistic model of pairwise-comparison outcomes that can capture a wide range of time dynamics. We…
This note continues investigation of randomness-type properties emerging in idealized financial markets with continuous price processes. It is shown, without making any probabilistic assumptions, that the strong variation exponent of…
This paper studies the pricing of European-style Asian options when the price dynamics of the underlying risky asset are assumed to follow a Markov- modulated geometric Brownian motion; that is, the appreciation rate and the volatility of…
We introduce a new stochastic duration model for transaction times in asset markets. We argue that widely accepted rules for aggregating seemingly related trades mislead inference pertaining to durations between unrelated trades: while any…
In a model independent discrete time financial market, we discuss the richness of the family of martingale measures in relation to different notions of Arbitrage, generated by a class $\mathcal{S}$ of significant sets, which we call…
We consider a conditional factor model for a multivariate portfolio of United States equities in the context of analysing a statistical arbitrage trading strategy. A state space framework underlies the factor model whereby asset returns are…
When the limiting compensator of a sequence of martingales is continuous, we obtain a weak convergence theorem for the martingales; the limiting process can be written as a Brownian motion evaluated at the compensator and we find sufficient…
In the context of Markov processes, we show a new scheme to derive dual processes and a duality function based on a boson representation. This scheme is applicable to a case in which a generator is expressed by boson creation and…
A general market model with memory is considered in terms of stochastic functional differential equations. We aim at representation formulae for the sensitivity analysis of the dependence of option prices on the memory. This implies a…
We establish explicit socially optimal rules for an irreversible investment deci- sion with time-to-build and uncertainty. Assuming a price sensitive demand function with a random intercept, we provide comparative statics and economic…
In an equity market model with "Knightian" uncertainty regarding the relative risk and covariance structure of its assets, we characterize in several ways the highest return relative to the market that can be achieved using nonanticipative…
We consider so-called regular invertible Gaussian Volterra processes and derive a formula for their prediction laws. Examples of such processes include the fractional Brownian motions and the mixed fractional Brownian motions. As an…
In a semimartingale financial market model, it is shown that there is equivalence between absence of arbitrage of the first kind (a weak viability condition) and the existence of a strictly positive process that acts as a local martingale…
A derivative is a financial security whose value is a function of underlying traded assets and market outcomes. Pricing a financial derivative involves setting up a market model, finding a martingale (``fair game") probability measure for…
We consider a one-period market model composed by a risk-free asset and a risky asset with $n$ possible future values (namely, a $n$-nomial market model). We characterize the lower envelope of the class of equivalent martingale measures in…
We consider a dynamic market model of liquidity where unmatched buy and sell limit orders are stored in order books. The resulting net demand surface constitutes the sole input to the model. We prove that generically there is no arbitrage…
Recent empirical studies suggest that the volatility of an underlying price process may have correlations that decay slowly under certain market conditions. In this paper, the volatility is modeled as a stationary process with long-range…
Geometric arbitrage theory reformulates a generic asset model possibly allowing for arbitrage by packaging all asset and their forward dynamics into a stochastic principal fibre bundle, with a connection whose parallel transport encodes…