Related papers: Mean squared error of empirical predictor
Estimating characteristics of domains (referred to as small areas) within a population from sample surveys of the population is an important problem in survey statistics. In this paper, we consider model-based small area estimation under…
An approximate mean square error (MSE) expression for the performance analysis of implicitly defined estimators of non-random parameters is proposed. An implicitly defined estimator (IDE) declares the minimizer/maximizer of a selected…
Bagging can significantly improve the generalization performance of unstable machine learning algorithms such as trees or neural networks. Though bagging is now widely used in practice and many empirical studies have explored its behavior,…
The James-Stein estimator's dominance over maximum likelihood in terms of mean square error (MSE) has been one of the most celebrated results in modern statistics, suggesting that biased estimators can systematically outperform unbiased…
A bilateral (i.e., upper and lower) bound on the mean-square error under a general model mismatch is developed. The bound, which is derived from the variational representation of the chi-square divergence, is applicable in the Bayesian and…
This note examines the behavior of generalization capabilities - as defined by out-of-sample mean squared error (MSE) - of Linear Gaussian (with a fixed design matrix) and Linear Least Squares regression. Particularly, we consider a…
In this article, a study of the mean-square error (MSE) performance of linear echo-state neural networks is performed, both for training and testing tasks. Considering the realistic setting of noise present at the network nodes, we derive…
Small area estimation has received enormous attention in recent years due to its wide range of application, particularly in policy making decisions. The variance based on direct sample size of small area estimator is unduly large and there…
We study the optimal linear prediction of a random function that takes values in an infinite dimensional Hilbert space. We begin by characterizing the mean square prediction error (MSPE) associated with a linear predictor and discussing the…
Nested error regression models are commonly used to incorporate observational unit specific auxiliary variables to improve small area estimates. When the mean structure of this model is misspecified, there is generally an increase in the…
Despite the simplicity and intuitive interpretation of Minimum Mean Squared Error (MMSE) estimators, their effectiveness in certain scenarios is questionable. Indeed, minimizing squared errors on average does not provide any form of…
We re-examine the traditional Mean-Squared Error (MSE) forecasting paradigm by formally integrating an accuracy-timeliness trade-off: accuracy is defined by MSE (or target correlation) and timeliness by advancement (or phase excess). While…
In regression models involving economic variables such as income, log transformation is typically taken to achieve approximate normality and stabilize the variance. However, often the interest is predicting individual values or means of the…
In this paper we have suggested a family of estimators for the population mean in the presence of measurement errors. Expression for the mean squared error (MSE) of the suggested family is derived. An empirical study has been carried out to…
In this paper, we suggest an estimator using two auxiliary variables in stratified random sampling. The propose estimator has an improvement over mean per unit estimator as well as some other considered estimators. Expressions for bias and…
We propose generalized resubstitution error estimators for regression, a broad family of estimators, each corresponding to a choice of empirical probability measures and loss function. The usual sum of squares criterion is a special case…
This paper investigates multistep prediction errors for non-stationary autoregressive processes with both model order and true parameters unknown. We give asymptotic expressions for the multistep mean squared prediction errors and…
Some improved estimators are proposed for estimating the population mean in stratified sampling in the presence of auxiliary information. Mean square error (MSE) of the proposed estimators have been derived under large sample approximation.…
This paper studies nonparametric regression with long memory (LRD) errors and predictors. First, we formulate general conditions which guarantee the standard rate of convergence for a nonparametric kernel estimator. Second, we calculate the…
Empirical best linear unbiased prediction (EBLUP) method uses a linear mixed model in combining information from different sources of information. This method is particularly useful in small area problems. The variability of an EBLUP is…