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Many of the observations we make are biased by our decisions. For instance, the demand of items is impacted by the prices set, and online checkout choices are influenced by the assortments presented. The challenge in decision-making under…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-07-02 Rares Cristian , Pavithra Harsha , Georgia Perakis , Brian Quanz

This note extends a recently proposed algorithm for model identification and robust MPC of asymptotically stable, linear time-invariant systems subject to process and measurement disturbances. Independent output predictors for different…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2021-03-02 Enrico Terzi , Lorenzo Fagiano , Marcello Farina , Riccardo Scattolini

Having access to a forward model enables the use of planning algorithms such as Monte Carlo Tree Search and Rolling Horizon Evolution. Where a model is unavailable, a natural aim is to learn a model that reflects accurately the dynamics of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-04-16 Alvaro Ovalle , Simon M. Lucas

Accurate vehicle trajectory prediction is an unsolved problem in autonomous driving with various open research questions. State-of-the-art approaches regress trajectories either in a one-shot or step-wise manner. Although one-shot…

Robotics · Computer Science 2023-06-07 Faris Janjoš , Max Keller , Maxim Dolgov , J. Marius Zöllner

Autoregressive models have emerged as a powerful framework for modeling exchangeable sequences - i.i.d. observations when conditioned on some latent factor - enabling direct modeling of uncertainty from missing data (rather than a latent).…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-03-04 Daksh Mittal , Ang Li , Tzu-Ching Yen , Daniel Guetta , Hongseok Namkoong

Accurate prediction of pedestrians' future motions is critical for intelligent driving systems. Developing models for this task requires rich datasets containing diverse sets of samples. However, the existing naturalistic trajectory…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2024-04-30 Ray Coden Mercurius , Ehsan Ahmadi , Soheil Mohamad Alizadeh Shabestary , Amir Rasouli

We consider the problem of defining and fitting models of autoregressive time series of probability distributions on a compact interval of $\mathbb{R}$. An order-$1$ autoregressive model in this context is to be understood as a Markov…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-03-17 Laya Ghodrati , Victor M. Panaretos

In robust optimization, the uncertainty set is used to model all possible outcomes of uncertain parameters. In the classic setting, one assumes that this set is provided by the decision maker based on the data available to her. Only…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2019-01-23 Trivikram Dokka , Marc Goerigk , Rahul Roy

As artificial intelligence systems move toward clinical deployment, ensuring reliable prediction behavior is fundamental for safety-critical decision-making tasks. One proposed safeguard is selective prediction, where models can defer…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-25 L. Julián Lechuga López , Farah E. Shamout , Tim G. J. Rudner

This work proposes a framework for multistage adjustable robust optimization that unifies the treatment of three different types of endogenous uncertainty, where decisions, respectively, (i) alter the uncertainty set, (ii) affect the…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2020-08-31 Qi Zhang , Wei Feng

Often the goal of model selection is to choose a model for future prediction, and it is natural to measure the accuracy of a future prediction by squared error loss. Under the Bayesian approach, it is commonly perceived that the optimal…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2007-06-13 Maria Maddalena Barbieri , James O. Berger

We consider a time-varying first-order autoregressive model with irregular innovations, where we assume that the coefficient function is H\"{o}lder continuous. To estimate this function, we use a quasi-maximum likelihood based approach. A…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-02-28 Hanna Gruber , Moritz Jirak

The Markov assumption in Markov Decision Processes (MDPs) is fundamental in reinforcement learning, influencing both theoretical research and practical applications. Existing methods that rely on the Bellman equation benefit tremendously…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-09-24 Chuyun Ye , Lixing Zhu , Ruoqing Zhu

This paper addresses the prediction of stationary functional time series. Existing contributions to this problem have largely focused on the special case of first-order functional autoregressive processes because of their technical…

Methodology · Statistics 2014-04-01 Alexander Aue , Diogo Dubart Norinho , Siegfried Hörmann

Automated AI classifiers should be able to defer the prediction to a human decision maker to ensure more accurate predictions. In this work, we jointly train a classifier with a rejector, which decides on each data point whether the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-04-12 Hussein Mozannar , Hunter Lang , Dennis Wei , Prasanna Sattigeri , Subhro Das , David Sontag

Model predictive control allows solving complex control tasks with control and state constraints. However, an optimal control problem must be solved in real-time to predict the future system behavior, which is hardly possible on embedded…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2023-04-13 Jan Olucak , Walter Fichter , Torbjørn Cunis

We propose a novel flexible-step model predictive control algorithm for unknown linear time-invariant discrete-time systems. The goal is to asymptotically stabilize the system without relying on a pre-collected dataset that describes its…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2025-10-02 Markus Pietschner , Christian Ebenbauer , Bahman Gharesifard , Raik Suttner

We study the problem of optimal state-feedback tracking control for unknown discrete-time deterministic systems with input constraints. To handle input constraints, state-of-art methods utilize a certain nonquadratic stage cost function,…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2020-12-09 Alexandros Tanzanakis , John Lygeros

Most clinical prediction studies are developed from retrospective cohorts and reported as if all patient information were observed at once. In practice, clinicians face a more consequential question: \emph{when is there already enough…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-27 Hui-Mean Foo , Yuan-chin Ivan Chang

In this article we study the problem of recovering the unknown solution of a linear ill-posed problem, via iterative regularization methods. We review the problem of projection-regularization from a statistical point of view. A basic…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2007-06-13 Ana K. Fermin , Carenne Ludena