Related papers: Moderate deviations for particle filtering

We prove two Large deviations principles (LDP) in the zone of moderate deviation probabilities. First we establish LDP for the conditional distributions of moderate deviations of empirical bootstrap measures given empirical probability…

Consider generalized adapted stochastic integrals with respect to independently scattered random measures with second moments. We use a decoupling technique, known as the "principle of conditioning", to study their stable convergence…

Density tempering (also called density annealing) is a sequential Monte Carlo approach to Bayesian inference for general state models; it is an alternative to Markov chain Monte Carlo. When applied to state space models, it moves a…

We prove deviation bounds for the random variable $\sum_{i=1}^{n} f_i(Y_i)$ in which $\{Y_i\}_{i=1}^{\infty}$ is a Markov chain with stationary distribution and state space $[N]$, and $f_i: [N] \rightarrow [-a_i, a_i]$. Our bound improves…

Determining whether two particle systems are similar is a common problem in particle simulations. When the comparison should be invariant under permutations, orthogonal transformations, and translations of the systems, special techniques…

For ${1/2}<\alpha<1$, we propose the MDP analysis for family $$ S^\alpha_n=\frac{1}{n^\alpha}\sum_{i=1}^nH(X_{i-1}), n\ge 1, $$ where $(X_n)_{n\ge 0}$ be a homogeneous ergodic Markov chain, $X_n\in \mathbb{R}^d$, when the spectrum of…

In this article we prove a new central limit theorem (CLT) for coupled particle filters (CPFs). CPFs are used for the sequential estimation of the difference of expectations w.r.t. filters which are in some sense close. Examples include the…

Functionals in geometric probability are often expressed as sums of bounded functions exhibiting exponential stabilization. Methods based on cumulant techniques and exponential modifications of measures show that such functionals satisfy…

In this paper, we establish sharp upper and lower bounds on the convergence rate of the empirical measures of point processes under the Wasserstein distance. To this end, we first introduce a new metric on the space of counting measures…

For a measure preserving transformation $T$ of a probability space $(X,\mathcal F,\mu)$ we investigate almost sure and distributional convergence of random variables of the form $$x \to \frac{1}{C_n} \sum_{i_1<n,...,i_d<n}…

We propose a method for inference on moderately high-dimensional, nonlinear, non-Gaussian, partially observed Markov process models for which the transition density is not analytically tractable. Markov processes with intractable transition…

We consider an inverse problem for the linear one-dimensional wave equation with variable coefficients consisting in determining an unknown source term from a boundary observation. A method to obtain approximations of this inverse problem…

Consider an nxn random matrix X with i.i.d. nonnegative entries with bounded density, mean m, and finite positive variance sigma^2. Let M be the nxn random Markov matrix with i.i.d. rows obtained from X by dividing each row of X by its sum.…

In this paper, a quantitative measure of partial observability is defined for PDEs. The quantity is proved to be consistent if the PDE is approximated using well-posed approximation schemes. A first order approximation of an unobservability…

The filtering equations associated to a partially observed jump diffusion model $(Z_t)_{t\in [0,T]}=(X_t,Y_t)_{t\in [0,T]}$, driven by Wiener processes and Poisson martingale measures are considered. Building on results from two preceding…

We present an efficient particle filtering algorithm for multiscale systems, that is adapted for simple atmospheric dynamics models which are inherently chaotic. Particle filters represent the posterior conditional distribution of the state…

Exponential stability of the nonlinear filtering equation is revisited, when the signal is a finite state Markov chain. An asymptotic upper bound for the filtering error due to incorrect initial condition is derived in the case of slowly…

Consider the random walk $G_n : = g_n \ldots g_1$, $n \geq 1$, where $(g_n)_{n\geq 1}$ is a sequence of independent and identically distributed random elements with law $\mu$ on the general linear group ${\rm GL}(V)$ with $V=\mathbb R^d$.…

In this article we introduce two new estimates of the normalizing constant (or marginal likelihood) for partially observed diffusion (POD) processes, with discrete observations. One estimate is biased but non-negative and the other is…

This paper focuses on the estimation of partially observed branching processes. First, the estimators from a frequentist perspective proposed in the literature are reviewed. The main objective of this paper is to present computational tools…