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We present a scheme to obtain an inexpensive and reliable estimate of the uncertainty associated with the predictions of a machine-learning model of atomic and molecular properties. The scheme is based on resampling, with multiple models…

Chemical Physics · Physics 2025-10-06 Felix Musil , Michael J. Willatt , Mikhail A. Langovoy , Michele Ceriotti

This paper studies the identification and estimation of weighted average derivatives of conditional location functionals including conditional mean and conditional quantiles in settings where either the outcome variable or a regressor is…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2013-12-24 Hiroaki Kaido

Model performance evaluation is a critical and expensive task in machine learning and computer vision. Without clear guidelines, practitioners often estimate model accuracy using a one-time completely random selection of the data. However,…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2024-07-19 Riccardo Fogliato , Pratik Patil , Mathew Monfort , Pietro Perona

When the study variable is functional and storage capacities are limited or transmission costs are high, selecting with survey sampling techniques a small fraction of the observations is an interesting alternative to signal compression…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2013-02-15 Hervé Cardot , Camelia Goga , Pauline Lardin

We propose, for multivariate Gaussian copula models with unknown margins and structured correlation matrices, a rank-based, semiparametrically efficient estimator for the Euclidean copula parameter. This estimator is defined as a one-step…

Methodology · Statistics 2014-10-02 Johan Segers , Ramon van den Akker , Bas J. M. Werker

The paper studies the problem of distributed parameter estimation in multi-agent networks with exponential family observation statistics. A certainty-equivalence type distributed estimator of the consensus + innovations form is proposed in…

Probability · Mathematics 2014-02-04 Soummya Kar , Jose Moura

In statistical exercises where there are several candidate models, the traditional approach is to select one model using some data driven criterion and use that model for estimation, testing and other purposes, ignoring the variability of…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2008-12-18 Snigdhansu Chatterjee , Nitai D. Mukhopadhyay

As a growing number of problems involve variables that are random objects, the development of models for such data has become increasingly important. This paper introduces a novel varying-coefficient Fr\'echet regression model that extends…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-09-16 Yanzhao Wang , Jianqiang Zhang , Wangli Xu

Differential equations are pivotal in modeling and understanding the dynamics of various systems, offering insights into their future states through parameter estimation fitted to time series data. In fields such as economy, politics, and…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-04-24 Hyeontae Jo , Sung Woong Cho , Hyung Ju Hwang

In this paper, we consider the estimation of generalized linear models with covariates that are missing completely at random. We propose a model averaging estimation method and prove that the corresponding model averaging estimator is…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2017-10-26 Qingfeng Liu , Miaomiao Zheng

Recurrent neural network based solutions are increasingly being used in the analysis of longitudinal Electronic Health Record data. However, most works focus on prediction accuracy and neglect prediction uncertainty. We propose Deep Kernel…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-07-27 Zhiliang Wu , Yinchong Yang , Peter A. Fasching , Volker Tresp

We propose a novel iterative algorithm for estimating a deterministic but unknown parameter vector in the presence of model uncertainties. This iterative algorithm is based on a system model where an overall noise term describes both, the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2017-11-27 Oliver Lang , Michael Lunglmayr , Mario Huemer

In this paper we will discuss a procedure to improve the usual estimator of a linear functional of the unknown regression function in inverse nonparametric regression models. In Klaassen, Lee, and Ruymgaart (2001) it has been proved that…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2007-06-13 Chris A. J. Klaassen , Eun-Joo Lee , Frits H. Ruymgaart

Using a dynamical model to make predictions about a system has many sources of error. These can include errors in how the model was initialised but also errors in the dynamics of the model itself. For many applications in data assimilation,…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2025-07-07 P. A. Browne

We consider the problem of asymptotically efficient estimation of drift parameters of the ergodic fractional Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process under continuous observations when the Hurst parameter $H<1/2$ and the mean of its stationary…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-04-12 Kohei Chiba , Tetsuya Takabatake

Varying-coefficient functional linear models consider the relationship between a response and a predictor, where the response depends not only the predictor but also an exogenous variable. It then accounts for the relation of the predictors…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-03-22 Hidetoshi Matsui

We consider nonparametric estimation of a regression function for a situation where precisely measured predictors are used to estimate the regression curve for coarsened, that is, less precise or contaminated predictors. Specifically, while…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2008-12-18 Aurore Delaigle , Peter Hall , Hans-Georg Müller

The problem of parameter estimation from a standard vector linear regression equation in the absence of sufficient excitation in the regressor is addressed. The first step to solve the problem consists in transforming this equation into a…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-03-14 Alexey Bobtsov , Bowen Yi , Romeo Ortega , Alessandro Astolfi

In this paper, we observe a fixed number of unknown $2\pi$-periodic functions differing from each other by both phases and amplitude. This semiparametric model appears in literature under the name "shape invariant model." While the common…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2010-10-06 Myriam Vimond

We present a general principle for estimating a regression function nonparametrically, allowing for a wide variety of data filtering, for example, repeated left truncation and right censoring. Both the mean and the median regression cases…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2011-02-10 Oliver Linton , Enno Mammen , Jens Perch Nielsen , Ingrid Van Keilegom
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