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Neural networks (NN) have achieved state-of-the-art performance in various applications. Unfortunately in applications where training data is insufficient, they are often prone to overfitting. One effective way to alleviate this problem is…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2016-11-03 Hao Wang , Xingjian Shi , Dit-Yan Yeung

Uncertainty awareness is crucial to develop reliable machine learning models. In this work, we propose the Natural Posterior Network (NatPN) for fast and high-quality uncertainty estimation for any task where the target distribution belongs…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-03-17 Bertrand Charpentier , Oliver Borchert , Daniel Zügner , Simon Geisler , Stephan Günnemann

The compound Poisson process and the Dirichlet process are the pillar structures of Renewal theory and Bayesian nonparametric theory, respectively. Both processes have many useful extensions to fulfill the practitioners needs to model the…

Applications · Statistics 2019-05-17 Arrigo Coen , Beatriz Godínez-Chaparro

We introduce a natural conjugate prior for the transition matrix of a reversible Markov chain. This allows estimation and testing. The prior arises from random walk with reinforcement in the same way the Dirichlet prior arises from…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2007-06-13 Persi Diaconis , Silke W. W. Rolles

We investigate the class of $\sigma$-stable Poisson-Kingman random probability measures (RPMs) in the context of Bayesian nonparametric mixture modeling. This is a large class of discrete RPMs which encompasses most of the the popular…

Computation · Statistics 2018-02-22 María Lomelí , Stefano Favaro , Yee Whye Teh

A family of random probabilities is defined and studied. This family contains the Dirichlet process as a special case, corresponding to an inner point in the appropriate parameter space. The extension makes it possible to have random means…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-04-21 Nils Lid Hjort

We establish scaling limit theorems for the up-down ordered Chinese restaurant processes (oCRPs) of Rogers and Winkel as processes in a space of interval partitions. As previously conjectured, the limits are self-similar diffusions…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-12-09 Quan Shi , Matthias Winkel

Most existing binary classification methods target on the optimization of the overall classification risk and may fail to serve some real-world applications such as cancer diagnosis, where users are more concerned with the risk of…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2015-08-18 Anqi Zhao , Yang Feng , Lie Wang , Xin Tong

Item response theory (IRT) models typically rely on a normality assumption for subject-specific latent traits, which is often unrealistic in practice. Semiparametric extensions based on Dirichlet process mixtures offer a more flexible…

Tree structures are ubiquitous in data across many domains, and many datasets are naturally modelled by unobserved tree structures. In this paper, first we review the theory of random fragmentation processes [Bertoin, 2006], and a number of…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2015-09-17 Hong Ge , Yarin Gal , Zoubin Ghahramani

Parallel tempering (PT) methods are a popular class of Markov chain Monte Carlo schemes used to sample complex high-dimensional probability distributions. They rely on a collection of $N$ interacting auxiliary chains targeting tempered…

Computation · Statistics 2021-07-28 Saifuddin Syed , Alexandre Bouchard-Côté , George Deligiannidis , Arnaud Doucet

Nested nonparametric processes are vectors of random probability measures widely used in the Bayesian literature to model the dependence across distinct, though related, groups of observations. These processes allow a two-level clustering,…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-10-10 Federico Camerlenghi , Riccardo Corradin , Andrea Ongaro

A Neural Process (NP) estimates a stochastic process implicitly defined with neural networks given a stream of data, rather than pre-specifying priors already known, such as Gaussian processes. An ideal NP would learn everything from data…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-04-20 Hyungi Lee , Eunggu Yun , Giung Nam , Edwin Fong , Juho Lee

We develop a model based on a generalised Poisson-Dirichlet distribution for the analysis of genetic diversity, and illustrate its use on microsatellite data for the genus Dasyurus (the quoll, a marsupial carnivore listed as near-threatened…

Applications · Statistics 2019-05-01 Yuguang F. Ipsen , Soudabeh Shemehsavar , Ross A. Maller

We analyze here different types of fractional differential equations, under the assumption that their fractional order $\nu \in (0,1] $ is random\ with probability density $n(\nu).$ We start by considering the fractional extension of the…

Probability · Mathematics 2015-05-27 Luisa Beghin

Transfer learning has recently shown significant performance across various tasks involving deep neural networks. In these transfer learning scenarios, the prior distribution for downstream data becomes crucial in Bayesian model averaging…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-03-13 Hyungi Lee , Giung Nam , Edwin Fong , Juho Lee

Priors in Bayesian analyses often encode informative domain knowledge that can be useful in making the inference process more efficient. Occasionally, however, priors may be unrepresentative of the parameter values for a given dataset,…

Computation · Statistics 2022-07-05 Xi Chen , Farhan Feroz , Michael Hobson

In this study, we use Rational-Quadratic Neural Spline Flows, a sophisticated parametrization of Normalizing Flows, for inferring posterior probability distributions in scenarios where direct evaluation of the likelihood is challenging at…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2024-01-26 Mathias El Baz , Federico Sánchez

This paper introduces a Bayesian nonparametric approach to frequency recovery from lossy-compressed discrete data, leveraging all information contained in a sketch obtained through random hashing. By modeling the data points as random…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-06-05 Mario Beraha , Stefano Favaro , Matteo Sesia

Bayesian nonparametric approaches, in particular the Pitman-Yor process and the associated two-parameter Chinese Restaurant process, have been successfully used in applications where the data exhibit a power-law behavior. Examples include…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-02-06 Fadhel Ayed , Juho Lee , François Caron