Related papers: A numeraire-free and original probability based fr…
Although both data availability and the demand for accurate forecasts are increasing, collaboration between stakeholders is often constrained by data ownership and competitive interests. In contrast to recent proposals within cooperative…
In this paper we provide a quantitative analysis to the concept of arbitrage, that allows to deal with model uncertainty without imposing the no-arbitrage condition. In markets that admit ``small arbitrage", we can still make sense of the…
In this article we present a new approach to the numerical valuation of derivative securities. The method is based on our previous work where we formulated the theory of pricing in terms of tradables. The basic idea is to fit a finite…
In this paper we investigate the local risk-minimization approach for a semimartingale financial market where there are restrictions on the available information to agents who can observe at least the asset prices. We characterize the…
In this paper we apply change of numeraire techniques to the optimal transport approach for computing model-free prices of derivatives in a two periods model. In particular, we consider the optimal transport plan constructed in…
As operators acting on the undetermined final settlement of a derivative security, expectation is linear but price is non-linear. When the market of underlying securities is incomplete, non-linearity emerges from the bid-offer around the…
With the emergence of decentralized finance, new trading mechanisms called Automated Market Makers have appeared. The most popular Automated Market Makers are Constant Function Market Makers. They have been studied both theoretically and…
In a stock market, the numeraire portfolio, if it exists, is the portfolio with the highest expected logarithmic growth rate at all times. A numeraire market is a stock market for which the market portfolio is the numeraire portfolio. We…
We solve the problem of pricing and optimal exercise of American call-type options in markets which do not necessarily admit an equivalent local martingale measure. This resolves an open question proposed by Fernholz and Karatzas…
We reconsider the microeconomic foundations of financial economics. Motivated by the importance of Knightian Uncertainty in markets, we present a model that does not carry any probabilistic structure ex ante, yet is based on a common order.…
Automated market makers (AMMs) are pricing mechanisms utilized by decentralized exchanges (DEX). Traditional AMM approaches are constrained by pricing solely based on their own liquidity pool, without consideration of external markets or…
We investigate whether it is possible to formulate option pricing and hedging models without using probability. We present a model that is consistent with two notions of volatility: a historical volatility consistent with statistical…
This paper offers a systematic investigation on the existence of equivalent local martingale deflators, which are multiplicative special semimartingales, in financial markets given by positive semimartingales. In particular, it shows that…
In this work, we introduce a Monte Carlo method for the dynamic hedging of general European-type contingent claims in a multidimensional Brownian arbitrage-free market. Based on bounded variation martingale approximations for…
In this paper, we establish a market model for the term structure of forward inflation rates based on the risk-neutral dynamics of nominal and real zero-coupon bonds. Under the market model, we can price inflation caplets as well as…
This paper gives yet another definition of game-theoretic probability in the context of continuous-time idealized financial markets. Without making any probabilistic assumptions (but assuming positive and continuous price paths), we obtain…
We introduce a criterion how to price derivatives in incomplete markets, based on the theory of growth optimal strategy in repeated multiplicative games. We present reasons why these growth-optimal strategies should be particularly relevant…
A supermartingale deflator (resp., local martingale deflator) multiplicatively transforms nonnegative wealth processes into supermartingales (resp., local martingales). The supermartingale numeraire (resp., local martingale numeraire) is…
This paper introduces and analyzes \emph{defensive rebalancing}, a novel mechanism for protecting constant-function market makers (CFMMs) from value leakage due to arbitrage. A \emph{rebalancing} transfers assets directly from one CFMM's…
In a model with no given probability measure, we consider asset pricing in the presence of frictions and other imperfections and characterize the property of coherent pricing, a notion related to (but much weaker than) the no arbitrage…