Related papers: Stochastic spatial models of plant diseases
The size and shape of the region affected by an outbreak is relevant to understand the dynamics of a disease and help to organize future actions to mitigate similar events. A simple extension of the SIR model is considered, where agents…
We present a stochastic model for two successive SIR (Susceptible, Infectious, Recovered) epidemics in the same network structured population. Individuals infected during the first epidemic might have (partial) immunity for the second one.…
This paper considers a stochastic SIR (susceptible$\to$infective$\to$removed) epidemic model in which individuals may make infectious contacts in two ways, both within `households' (which for ease of exposition are assumed to have equal…
Computational multi-scale pandemic modelling remains a major and timely challenge. Here we identify specific requirements for a new class of models simulating pandemics across three scales: (1) pathogen evolution, often punctuated by the…
This work proposes and analyzes a family of spatially inhomogeneous epidemic models. This is our first effort to use stochastic partial differential equations (SPDEs) to model epidemic dynamics with spatial variations and environmental…
Motivated by the study of social insects, we introduce a stochastic model based on interacting particle systems in order to understand the effect of communication on the division of labor. Members of the colony are located on the vertex set…
By means of the asynchronous cellular automata algorithm we study stationary states and spatial patterning in an $SIS$ model, in which the individuals' are attached to the vertices of a graph and their mobility is mimicked by varying the…
We study the spatial pattern formation and emerging long range correlations in a model of three species coevolving in space and time according to stochastic contact rules. Analytical results for the pair correlation functions, based on a…
We study a subclass of the May-Leonard stochastic model with an arbitrary, even number of species, leading to the arising of two competing partnerships where individuals are indistinguishable. By carrying out a series of accurate numerical…
Spatio-temporal interaction is inherent to cases of infectious diseases and occurrences of earthquakes, whereas the spread of other events, such as cancer or crime, is less evident. Statistical significance tests of space-time clustering…
In this paper we introduce a class of stochastic population models based on "patch dynamics". The size of the patch may be varied, and this allows one to quantify the departures of these stochastic models from various mean field theories,…
The surprisingly mercurial Covid-19 pandemic has highlighted the need to not only accelerate research on infectious disease, but to also study them using novel techniques and perspectives. A major contributor to the difficulty of containing…
We study a three-species cyclic game system where organisms face a contagious disease whose virulence may change by a pathogen mutation. As a responsive defence strategy, organisms' mobility is restricted to reduce disease dissemination in…
We propose a compartmental model for a disease with temporary immunity and secondary infections. From our assumptions on the parameters involved in the model, the system naturally evolves in three time scales. We characterize the equilibria…
The spatial structure of populations is a key element in the understanding of the large scale spreading of epidemics. Motivated by the recent empirical evidence on the heterogeneous properties of transportation and commuting patterns among…
Cells of the human body have nearly identical genome but exhibit very different phenotypes that allow them to carry out specific functions and react to changes in their surrounding environment. This division of labour is achieved by…
Mathematical models represent one of the fundamental ways of studying nature. In special, epidemic models have shown to be particularly useful in the understanding of the course of diseases and in the planning effective control policies. A…
Gradual changes in exploitation, nutrient loading, etc. produce shifts between alternative stable states (ASS) in ecosystems which, quite often, are not smooth but abrupt or catastrophic. Early warnings of such catastrophic regime shifts…
Determining spatial distributions of species and communities are key objectives of ecology and conservation. Joint species distribution models use multi-species detection-nondetection data to estimate species and community distributions.…
In this study, spatial stochastic and logistic model (SSLM) describing dynamics of a population of a certain species was analysed. The behaviour of the extinction threshold as a function of model parameters was studied. More specifically,…