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We present a computational method for measuring financial risk by estimating the Value at Risk and Expected Shortfall from financial series. We have made two assumptions: First, that the predictive distributions of the values of an asset…
Under a complex technical condition, similar to such used in extreme value theory, we find the rate q(\epsilon)^{-1} at which a stochastic process with stationary increments \xi should be sampled, for the sampled process \xi(\lfloor\cdot…
In this paper, random and stochastic processes are defined on fractal curves. Fractal calculus is used to define cumulative distribution function, probability density function, moments, variance and correlation function of stochastic…
Fractional generalizations of the Poisson process and branching Furry process are considered. The link between characteristics of the processes, fractional differential equations and Levy stable densities are discussed and used for…
This paper explores stochastic modeling approaches to elucidate the intricate dynamics of stock prices and volatility in financial markets. Beginning with an overview of Brownian motion and its historical significance in finance, we delve…
Estimating covariances between financial assets plays an important role in risk management. In practice, when the sample size is small compared to the number of variables, the empirical estimate is known to be very unstable. Here, we…
We consider a measurable stationary Gaussian stochastic process. A criterion for testing hypotheses about the covariance function of such a process using estimates for its norm in the space $L_p(\mathbb {T}),\,p\geq1$, is constructed.
We study a well-known estimator of the fractal index of a stochastic process. Our framework is very general and encompasses many models of interest; we show how to extend the theory of the estimator to a large class of non-Gaussian…
This work is about parameter estimation for a fast-slow stochastic system with non-Gaussian $\alpha$-stable L\'evy noise. When the observations are only available for slow components, a system parameter is estimated and the accuracy for…
This paper presents a Gaussian process (GP) model for estimating piecewise continuous regression functions. In scientific and engineering applications of regression analysis, the underlying regression functions are piecewise continuous in…
This work presents a new Visual Basic 6.0 application for estimating the fractal dimension of images, based on an optimized version of the box-counting algorithm. Following the attempt to separate the real information from noise, we…
Estimating percentiles of black-box deterministic functions with random inputs is a challenging task when the number of function evaluations is severely restricted, which is typical for computer experiments. This article proposes two new…
Fractal dimension is widely adopted in spatial databases and data mining, among others as a measure of dataset skewness. State-of-the-art algorithms for estimating the fractal dimension exhibit linear runtime complexity whether based on…
Standard sparse pseudo-input approximations to the Gaussian process (GP) cannot handle complex functions well. Sparse spectrum alternatives attempt to answer this but are known to over-fit. We suggest the use of variational inference for…
Estimation and prediction in high dimensional multivariate factor stochastic volatility models is an important and active research area because such models allow a parsimonious representation of multivariate stochastic volatility. Bayesian…
In this paper, we discuss the Higuchi algorithm which serves as a widely used estimator for the box-counting dimension of the graph of a bounded function $f : [0,1] \to \R$. We formulate the method in a mathematically precise way and show…
The paper develops new methods of non-parametric estimation a compound Poisson distribution. Such a problem arise, in particular, in the inference of a Levy process recorded at equidistant time intervals. Our key estimator is based on…
We consider how to use Hamiltonian Monte Carlo to sample from a distribution whose log-density is piecewise quadratic, conditioned on the sample lying on the level set of a piecewise affine, continuous function.
We consider a stochastic process $Y$ defined by an integral in quadratic mean of a deterministic function $f$ with respect to a Gaussian process $X$, which need not have stationary increments. For a class of Gaussian processes $X$, it is…
A method for extracting the Levy stability index $\mu$ from the multi-fractal spectrum $f(\alpha)$ in high energy multiparticle production is proposed. This index is an important parameter, characterizing the non-linear behaviour of…