Related papers: Observability and Probability of Discovery in Futu…
We propose a method to estimate the probability of new physics discovery in future high energy physics experiments. Physics simulation gives both the average numbers <Nb> of background and <Ns> of signal events. We find that the proper…
We propose a method to estimate the probability of new physics discovery in future high energy physics experiments. Physics simulation gives both the average numbers $<N_b>$ of background and $<N_s>$ of signal events. We find that the…
We describe a method for estimation of the discovery potential on new physics in planned experiments. The effective significance of signal for given probability of observation is proposed for planned experiments instead of the usual…
The LHC experiments have great potential in discovering many possible new particles up to the TeV scale. The significance calculation of an observation of a physics signal with known location and shape is no longer valid when either the…
Machine-learning techniques have become fundamental in high-energy physics and, for new physics searches, it is crucial to know their performance in terms of experimental sensitivity, understood as the statistical significance of the…
For Poisson distribution $Pois(n, \lambda)$ with $\lambda \gg 1$, $n \gg 1$ we propose to determine significance as $S = \frac{n_{obs}-\lambda}{\sqrt{\lambda}}$. The significance $S$ coincides up to sign with often used significance. For…
In High-Energy Physics experiments it is often necessary to evaluate the global statistical significance of apparent resonances observed in invariant mass spectra. One approach to determining significance is to use simulated events to find…
Current experimental limits for new physics beyond the Standard Model and hints for deviations from Standard Model expectations will be reviewed, highlighting recent results. Possible signals that will be discussed include Higgs bosons,…
When a scientist performs an experiment they normally acquire a set of measurements and are expected to demonstrate that their results are "statistically significant" thus confirming whatever hypothesis they are testing. The main method for…
The projected discovery and exclusion capabilities of particle physics and astrophysics/cosmology experiments are often quantified using the median expected $p$-value or its corresponding significance. We argue that this criterion leads to…
A central goal in experimental high energy physics is to detect new physics signals that are not explained by known physics. In this paper, we aim to search for new signals that appear as deviations from known Standard Model physics in…
Searching for evidence of neutrino oscillations is an important problem in particle physics. Suppose that evidence for neutrino oscillations from an LSND experiment reports a significant positive oscillation probability, but that the LSND…
Model-independent searches in particle physics aim at completing our knowledge of the universe by looking for new possible particles not predicted by the current theories. Such particles, referred to as signal, are expected to behave as a…
Particle physics experiments such as those run in the Large Hadron Collider result in huge quantities of data, which are boiled down to a few numbers from which it is hoped that a signal will be detected. We discuss a simple probability…
Several experiments in high-energy physics and astrophysics can be treated as on/off measurements, where an observation potentially containing a new source or effect ("on" measurement) is contrasted with a background-only observation free…
We present StatTestCalculator (STC), a new open-source statistical analysis tool designed for analysis high energy physics experiments. STC provides both asymptotic calculations and Monte Carlo simulations for computing the exact…
We examine the ability of future facilities to discover and interpret non-supersymmetric new phenomena. We first explore explicit manifestations of new physics, including extended gauge sectors, leptoquarks, exotic fermions, and technicolor…
To properly estimate signal significance while accounting for both statistical and systematic uncertainties, we conducted a study to analyze the impact of typical systematic uncertainties, such as background shape, signal shape, and the…
In this note, an alternative for presenting the distribution of `significant' events in searches for new phenomena is described. The alternative is based on probability density functions used in the evaluation of the `significance' of an…
This note gives a short review of the statistical issues concerning upper limit calculation and claiming of discovery arising in the search for exotic physics with neutrino telescopes. Low sample sizes and significant instrumental…