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Consider a surplus process which both of collected premium and payed claim size are two independent compound Poisson processes. This article derives two approximated formulas for the ruin probability of such surplus process, say double…

Probability · Mathematics 2017-01-20 Amir T. Payandeh Najafabadi , Dan Kucerovsky

We study the discrete time risk process modelled by the skip-free random walk and we derive the results connected to the ruin probability, such as crossing the fixed level, for this kind of process. We use the method relying on the…

Probability · Mathematics 2017-09-08 Ivana Geček Tuđen

Branching processes pervade many models in statistical physics. We investigate the survival probability of a Galton-Watson branching process after a finite number of generations. We reveal the finite-size scaling law of the survival…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2015-11-26 Rosalba Garcia-Millan , Francesc Font-Clos , Alvaro Corral

We consider a renewal process which models a cumulative shock model that fails when the accumulation of shocks up-crosses a certain threshold. The ratio limit properties of the probabilities of non-failure after n cumulative shocks are…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-12-16 Mikael Escobar-Bach , Alexandre Popier , Malo Sahin

Gaussian process (GP) surrogate modeling for large computer experiments is limited by cubic runtimes, especially with data from stochastic simulations with input-dependent noise. A popular workaround to reduce computational complexity…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-06-01 D Austin Cole , Robert B Gramacy , Mike Ludkovski

We consider the branching random walk drifting to $-\infty$ and we investigate large deviations-type estimates for the first passage time. We prove the corresponding law of large numbers and the central limit theorem.

Probability · Mathematics 2017-09-14 Dariusz Buraczewski , Mariusz Maslanka

The time dependence of the survival probability, S(t), is determined for diffusing particles in two dimensions which are also driven by a random unidirectional zero-mean velocity field, v_x(y). For a semi-infinite system with unbounded y…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2009-10-30 Sidney Redner

The paper deals with the asymptotic behavior of the bridge of a Gaussian process conditioned to stay in $n$ fixed points at $n$ fixed past instants. In particular, functional large deviation results are stated for small time. Several…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-04-06 L. Caramellino , B. Pacchiarotti

This paper provides a detailed analysis of the lower deviation probability properties for a $d$-type ($d>1$) Galton--Watson (GW) process $\{\textbf{Z}_n=(Z_n^{(i)})_{1\le i\le d};n\ge0\}$ in both Schr\"{o}der and B\"{o}ttcher cases. We…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-07-01 Tan Jiangrui

The exchange of electroweak gauginos in the $t-$ or $u-$channel allows squark pair production at hadron colliders without color exchange between the squarks. This can give rise to events where little or no energy is deposited in the…

High Energy Physics - Phenomenology · Physics 2009-11-10 Sascha Bornhauser , Manuel Drees , Herbert K. Dreiner , Jong Soo Kim

Motivated by recent works on the high-dimensional logistic regression, we establish that the existence of the maximum likelihood estimate exhibits a phase transition for a wide range of generalized linear models with binary outcome and…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-12-18 Wenpin Tang , Yuting Ye

A $p$-jump process is a piecewise deterministic Markov process with jumps by a factor of $p$. We prove a limit theorem for such processes on the unit interval. Via duality with respect to probability generating functions, we deduce limiting…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-07-02 F. Hermann , P. Pfaffelhuber

This paper presents a sharp approximation of the density of long runs of a random walk conditioned on its end value or by an average of a functions of its summands as their number tends to infinity. The conditioning event is of moderate or…

Probability · Mathematics 2011-06-14 Michel Broniatowski , Virgile Caron

The time-dependent survival probability function $S(t;x_0,q)$ of biased Sisyphus random walkers, who at each time step have a finite probability $q$ to step towards an absorbing trap at the origin and a complementary probability $1-q$ to…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2025-02-11 Shahar Hod

We provide Large Deviation estimates for the bridge of a $d$-dimensional general diffusion process as the conditioning time tends to $0$ and apply these results to the evaluation of the asymptotics of its exit time probabilities. We are…

Probability · Mathematics 2014-06-19 Paolo Baldi , Lucia Caramellino , Maurizia Rossi

A birth-death process is a continuous-time Markov chain that counts the number of particles in a system over time. In the general process with $n$ current particles, a new particle is born with instantaneous rate $\lambda_n$ and a particle…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2012-10-11 Forrest W. Crawford , Marc A. Suchard

A sufficient condition is obtained for a discrete-time birth-death process to possess the strong ratio limit property, directly in terms of the one-step transition probabilities of the process. The condition encompasses all previously known…

Probability · Mathematics 2018-05-16 Erik A. van Doorn

The similarities between string percolation and Glasma results are emphasized, special attention being paid to rapidity long range correlations, ridge structure and elliptic flow. As the string density of high multiplicity pp collisions at…

High Energy Physics - Phenomenology · Physics 2011-06-15 I. Bautista , J. Dias de Deus , C. Pajares

The relationship between anomalous superdiffusive behavior and particle trapping probability is analyzed on a rocking ratchet potential with spatially correlated weak disorder. The trapping probability density is shown, analytically and…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2019-02-18 D. G. Zarlenga , G. L. Frontini , Fereydoon Family , C. M. Arizmendi

We give sharp, uniform estimates for the probability that a random walk of n steps on the reals avoids a half-line [y,infinity) given that it ends at the point x. The estimates hold for general continuous or lattice distributions provided…

Probability · Mathematics 2009-06-18 Kevin Ford