Related papers: Theoretical uncertainties on alpha_s from event-sh…
Recent advancements in machine learning have emphasized the need for transparency in model predictions, particularly as interpretability diminishes when using increasingly complex architectures. In this paper, we propose leveraging…
We have studied hadronic events from e+e- annihilation data at centre-of-mass energies from 91 to 209 GeV. We present distributions of event shape observables and their moments at each energy and compare with QCD Monte Carlo models. From…
We compute power corrections to hadronic event shapes in $e^+e^-$ annihilation, assuming an infrared regular behaviour of the effective coupling $\alpha_s$. With the integral of $\alpha_s$ over the infrared region as the only…
Uncertainty quantification is a key part of astronomy and physics; scientific researchers attempt to model both statistical and systematic uncertainties in their data as best as possible, often using a Bayesian framework. Decisions might…
The correct use and interpretation of models depends on several steps, two of which being the calibration by parameter estimation and the analysis of uncertainty. In the biological literature, these steps are seldom discussed together, but…
We address the problem of uncertainty quantification and propose measures of total, aleatoric, and epistemic uncertainty based on a known decomposition of (strictly) proper scoring rules, a specific type of loss function, into a divergence…
We develop a new approach to estimate the uncertainty due to missing higher orders in perturbative predictions (the perturbative "theory uncertainty"), which overcomes many inherent limitations of the currently prevalent methods based on…
The ideas of aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty are widely used to reason about the probabilistic predictions of machine-learning models. We identify incoherence in existing discussions of these ideas and suggest this stems from the…
The strong coupling constant ($\alpha_{S}$) is a fundamental parameter of quantum chromodynamics (QCD), the theory of the strong force. Some of the earliest precise constraints on $\alpha_{S}$ came from measurements of event shape…
Experimental tests of QCD predictions for event shape distributions combining contributions from hard and soft processes are discussed. The hard processes are predicted by perturbative QCD calculations. The soft processes cannot be…
Starting from considerations about meaning and subsequent use of asymmetric uncertainty intervals of experimental results, we review the issue of uncertainty propagation. We show that, using a probabilistic approach (the so-called Bayesian…
Theoretical predictions need quantified uncertainties for a meaningful comparison to experimental results. This is an idea which presently permeates the field of theoretical nuclear physics. In light of the recent progress in estimating…
The difficulties of perturbation theory associated with unstable fundamental fields (such as the lack of exact gauge invariance in each order) are cured if one constructs perturbative expansion directly for probabilities interpreted as…
Sources of uncertainty are reviewed for calculated atomic and molecular data that are important for plasma modeling: atomic and molecular structure and cross sections for electron-atom, electron-molecule, and heavy particle collisions. We…
This paper presents a novel numerical method for the hybrid reliability analysis by using the uncertainty theory. Aleatory uncertainty and epistemic uncertainty are considered simultaneously in this method. Epistemic uncertainty is…
Multi-hadronic events produced in e+e- collisions provide an excellent laboratory to study QCD, the theory of strong interactions, and in particular to determine the strong coupling parameter alpha_s and demonstrate its predicted behavior…
Parameter estimation via unbinned maximum likelihood fits is central for many analyses performed in high energy physics. Unbinned maximum likelihood fits using event weights, for example to statistically subtract background contributions…
The uncertainty quantifications of theoretical results are of great importance to make meaningful comparisons of those results with experimental data and to make predictions in experimentally unknown regions. By quantifying uncertainties,…
In the presence of modeling errors, the mainstream Bayesian methods seldom give a realistic account of uncertainties as they commonly underestimate the inherent variability of parameters. This problem is not due to any misconception in the…
Systematic uncertainties in high energy physics and astrophysics are often significant contributions to the overall uncertainty in a measurement, in many cases being comparable to the statistical uncertainties. However, consistent…