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The presently most accurate prediction for the W-boson mass in the Standard Model is obtained by combining the complete two-loop result with the known higher-order QCD and electroweak corrections. The numerical impact of the different…

High Energy Physics - Phenomenology · Physics 2021-11-09 M. Awramik , M. Czakon , A. Freitas , G. Weiglein

While conformal predictors reap the benefits of rigorous statistical guarantees on their error frequency, the size of their corresponding prediction sets is critical to their practical utility. Unfortunately, there is currently a lack of…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-03-12 Guneet S. Dhillon , George Deligiannidis , Tom Rainforth

Load forecasts have become an integral part of energy security. Due to the various influencing factors that can be considered in such a forecast, there is also a wide range of models that attempt to integrate these parameters into a system…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-10-19 Philipp Giese

We consider the problem of estimating the number of distinct elements in a large data set (or, equivalently, the support size of the distribution induced by the data set) from a random sample of its elements. The problem occurs in many…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-06-17 Talya Eden , Piotr Indyk , Shyam Narayanan , Ronitt Rubinfeld , Sandeep Silwal , Tal Wagner

We propose Echo State Networks (ESNs) to predict the statistics of extreme events in a turbulent flow. We train the ESNs on small datasets that lack information about the extreme events. We asses whether the networks are able to extrapolate…

Fluid Dynamics · Physics 2022-04-13 Alberto Racca , Luca Magri

The electron and positron magnetic moments are the most precise prediction of the standard model of particle physics. The most accurate measurement of a property of an elementary particle has been made to test this result. A new…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2023-11-14 G. Gabrielse , S. E. Fayer , T. G. Myers , X. Fan

Intrinsic EDMs in microscopic systems at a level of sensitivity achievable in experiments under way or foreseen are predicted in supersymmetric unified theories. I describe this and other sources of measurable EDMs and I show how these…

High Energy Physics - Phenomenology · Physics 2015-06-25 Andrea Romanino

We study inference with a small labeled sample, a large unlabeled sample, and high-quality predictions from an external model. We link prediction-powered inference with empirical likelihood by stacking supervised estimating equations based…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-12-19 Guanghui Wang , Mengtao Wen , Changliang Zou

The paper introduces a new estimation method for the standard linear regression model. The procedure is not driven by the optimisation of any objective function rather, it is a simple weighted average of slopes from observation pairs. The…

Econometrics · Economics 2024-02-27 Felix Chan , Laszlo Matyas

Generalized linear models play an essential role in a wide variety of statistical applications. This paper discusses an approximation of the likelihood in these models that can greatly facilitate computation. The basic idea is to replace a…

Methodology · Statistics 2013-05-27 Alexandro D. Ramirez , Liam Paninski

A prognostic watch of the electric power system (EPS)is framed up, which detects the threat to EPS for a day ahead according to the characteristic times for a day ahead and according to the droop for a day ahead. Therefore, a prognostic…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2013-11-26 Stefan Z. Stefanov

Following Selberg it is known that uniformly for V << (logloglog T)^{1/2 - \epsilon} the measure of those t \in [T;2T] for which log |\zeta(1/2 + it)| > V*((1/2)loglog T)^{1/2} is approximately T times the probability that a standard…

Number Theory · Mathematics 2011-08-26 Maksym Radziwill

Notion of effective size of support (Ess) of a random variable is introduced. A small set of natural requirements that a measure of Ess should satisfy is presented. The measure with prescribed properties is in a direct (exp-) relationship…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2007-06-13 M. Grendar

We present a comprehensive investigation of $\epsilon$-entropy, $h(\epsilon)$, in dynamical systems, stochastic processes and turbulence. Particular emphasis is devoted on a recently proposed approach to the calculation of the…

Chaotic Dynamics · Physics 2009-10-31 M. Abel , L. Biferale , M. Cencini , M. Falcioni , D. Vergni , A. Vulpiani

Notes to lectures on the epsilon calculus, covering axioms, semantics, completeness, and the first epsilon theorem.

Logic · Mathematics 2014-11-14 Richard Zach

We develop a theory of estimation when in addition to a sample of $n$ observed outcomes the underlying probabilities of the observed outcomes are known, as is typically the case in the context of numerical simulation modeling, e.g. in…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-04-14 Jobst Heitzig

Starting from the five-loop renormalization-group expansions for the two-dimensional Euclidean scalar \phi^4 field theory (field-theoretical version of two-dimensional Ising model), pseudo-\epsilon expansions for the Wilson fixed point…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2014-11-17 A. I. Sokolov

We study $\varepsilon$-stability in continuous logic. We first consider stability in a model, where we obtain a definability of types result with a better approximation than that in the literature. We also prove forking symmetry for…

Logic · Mathematics 2024-11-08 Nicolas Chavarria

Bayesian, classical, and extended maximum likelihood approaches to estimation of upper limits in experiments with small numbers of signal events are surveyed. The discussion covers only experiments whose outcomes are well described by a…

High Energy Physics - Experiment · Physics 2011-07-19 Ilya Narsky

For a sample of Exponentially distributed durations we aim at point estimation and a confidence interval for its parameter. A duration is only observed if it has ended within a certain time interval, determined by a Uniform distribution.…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-10-19 Rafael Weißbach , Dominik Wied