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We propose to compute physical properties by Monte Carlo calculations using conditional expectation values. The latter are obtained on top of the usual Monte Carlo sampling by partitioning the physical space in several subspaces or…

Chemical Physics · Physics 2022-08-17 Antoine Bienvenu , Jonas Feldt , Julien Toulouse , Roland Assaraf

We consider the numerical approximation of $\mathbb{P}[G\in \Omega]$ where the $d$-dimensional random variable $G$ cannot be sampled directly, but there is a hierarchy of increasingly accurate approximations $\{G_\ell\}_{\ell\in\mathbb{N}}$…

Computational Finance · Quantitative Finance 2021-07-21 Abdul-Lateef Haji-Ali , Jonathan Spence , Aretha Teckentrup

This paper introduces a new algorithm to approximate smoothed additive functionals for partially observed stochastic differential equations. This method relies on a recent procedure which allows to compute such approximations online, i.e.…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-03-14 Pierre Gloaguen , Marie-Pierre Etienne , Sylvain Le Corff

For basic machine learning problems, expected error is used to evaluate model performance. Since the distribution of data is usually unknown, we can make simple hypothesis that the data are sampled independently and identically distributed…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-12-01 Xuli Shen , Qing Xu , Xiangyang Xue

Motivated mainly by applications to partial differential equations with random coefficients, we introduce a new class of Monte Carlo estimators, called Toeplitz Monte Carlo (TMC) estimator for approximating the integral of a multivariate…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2021-01-14 Josef Dick , Takashi Goda , Hiroya Murata

The Kaczmarz algorithm is popular for iteratively solving an overdetermined system of linear equations. The traditional Kaczmarz algorithm can approximate the solution in few sweeps through the equations but a randomized version of the…

Numerical Analysis · Computer Science 2014-02-04 Hemant Kumar Aggarwal , Angshul Majumdar

In recent years, many Machine Learning (ML) explanation techniques have been designed using ideas from cooperative game theory. These game-theoretic explainers suffer from high complexity, hindering their exact computation in practical…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-04-22 Konstandinos Kotsiopoulos , Alexey Miroshnikov , Khashayar Filom , Arjun Ravi Kannan

We consider the linear regression model with observation error in the design. In this setting, we allow the number of covariates to be much larger than the sample size. Several new estimation methods have been recently introduced for this…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-07-05 Alexandre Belloni , Mathieu Rosenbaum , Alexandre Tsybakov

We present simple and practical strategies to reduce the variance of Monte Carlo estimators. Our focus is on variational Monte Carlo calculations of atomic forces and pressure in electronic systems, although we show that the underlying…

Strongly Correlated Electrons · Physics 2026-03-17 David Linteau , Saverio Moroni , Giuseppe Carleo , Markus Holzmann

Instrumental variables estimation has gained considerable traction in recent decades as a tool for causal inference, particularly amongst empirical researchers. This paper makes three contributions. First, we provide a detailed theoretical…

Econometrics · Economics 2021-04-27 Aiwei Huang , Madhurima Chandra , Laura Malkhasyan

We are interested in computing the expectation of a functional of a PDE solution under a Bayesian posterior distribution. Using Bayes' rule, we reduce the problem to estimating the ratio of two related prior expectations. For a model…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2017-03-03 R. Scheichl , A. M. Stuart , A. L. Teckentrup

Conventional Monte Carlo simulations are stochastic in the sense that the acceptance of a trial move is decided by comparing a computed acceptance probability with a random number, uniformly distributed between 0 and 1. Here we consider the…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2018-05-24 Daan Frenkel , K. Julian Schrenk , Stefano Martiniani

We consider the problem of estimating the expected outcomes of Monte Carlo processes whose outputs are described by multidimensional random variables. We tightly characterize the quantum query complexity of this problem for various choices…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2021-07-09 Arjan Cornelissen , Sofiene Jerbi

This paper considers the challenging computational task of estimating nested expectations. Existing algorithms, such as nested Monte Carlo or multilevel Monte Carlo, are known to be consistent but require a large number of samples at both…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-06-05 Zonghao Chen , Masha Naslidnyk , François-Xavier Briol

In this work, we consider the problem of estimating the probability distribution, the quantile or the conditional expectation above the quantile, the so called conditional-value-at-risk, of output quantities of complex random differential…

Computation · Statistics 2023-05-23 Quentin Ayoul-Guilmard , Sundar Ganesh , Sebastian Krumscheid , Fabio Nobile

In Kuznetsov et al. (2011) a new Monte Carlo simulation technique was introduced for a large family of Levy processes that is based on the Wiener-Hopf decomposition. We pursue this idea further by combining their technique with the recently…

Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) provides asymptotically consistent estimates of intractable posterior expectations as the number of iterations tends to infinity. However, in large data applications, MCMC can be computationally expensive per…

Computation · Statistics 2023-11-03 Niloy Biswas , Lester Mackey

Uncertainty estimation in deep models is essential in many real-world applications and has benefited from developments over the last several years. Recent evidence suggests that existing solutions dependent on simple Gaussian formulations…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-05-11 Jurijs Nazarovs , Ronak R. Mehta , Vishnu Suresh Lokhande , Vikas Singh

We propose a multilevel Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method for the Bayesian inference of random field parameters in PDEs using high-resolution data. Compared to existing multilevel MCMC methods, we additionally consider level-dependent…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2025-08-19 Pieter Vanmechelen , Geert Lombaert , Giovanni Samaey

This paper considers the problem of estimating chirp parameters from a noisy mixture of chirps. While a rich body of work exists in this area, challenges remain when extending these techniques to chirps of higher order polynomials. We…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2025-01-31 Sattwik Basu , Debottam Dutta , Yu-Lin Wei , Romit Roy Choudhury
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