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We present a procedure for calculating an upper limit on the number of signal events which incorporates the Poisson uncertainty in the background, estimated from control regions of one or two dimensions. For small number of signal events,…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2015-06-26 K. K. Gan

We present a simple derivation of a Feynman-Kac type formula to study fermionic systems. In this approach the real time or the imaginary time dynamics is expressed in terms of the evolution of a collection of Poisson processes. A computer…

High Energy Physics - Lattice · Physics 2007-05-23 Matteo Beccaria , Carlo Presilla , Gian Fabrizio De Angelis , Giovanni Jona-Lasinio

A priori bound for the parameter to be estimated is incorporated into confidence intervals within frequentistic approach in a straightforward and optimal fashion, ensuring the best resolution of non-boundary values as well as robustness for…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2011-04-06 Fyodor V. Tkachov

Fast Fourier transform algorithms are an arsenal of effective tools for solving various problems of analysis and high-speed processing of signals of various natures. Almost all of these algorithms are designed to process sequences of…

Data Structures and Algorithms · Computer Science 2025-04-11 Aleksandr Cariow

The Poisson process is the most elementary continuous-time stochastic process that models a stream of repeating events. It is uniquely characterised by a single parameter called the rate. Instead of a single value for this rate, we here…

Probability · Mathematics 2019-06-05 Alexander Erreygers , Jasper De Bock

Monte Carlo simulations of diffusion processes often introduce bias in the final result, due to time discretization. Using an auxiliary Poisson process, it is possible to run simulations which are unbiased. In this article, we propose such…

Computational Finance · Quantitative Finance 2016-05-09 Louis Paulot

We show that the calculation of Berezin integrals over anticommuting variables can be reduced to the evaluation of expectations of functionals of Poisson processes via an appropriate Feynman-Kac formula. In this way the tools of ordinary…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2008-02-03 G. F. De Angelis , G. Jona-Lasinio , V. Sidoravicius

The Cox process is a stochastic process which generalises the Poisson process by letting the underlying intensity function itself be a stochastic process. In this paper we present a fast Bayesian inference scheme for the permanental…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-08-07 Christian J. Walder , Adrian N. Bishop

In this paper, we develop a computational approach for estimating the mean value of a quantity in the presence of uncertainty. We demonstrate that, under some mild assumptions, the upper and lower bounds of the mean value are efficiently…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2013-11-05 Xinjia Chen

The boundary crossing probability of a Poisson process with $n$ jumps is a fundamental quantity with numerous applications. We present a fast $O(n^2 \log n)$ algorithm to calculate this probability for arbitrary upper and lower boundaries.

Computation · Statistics 2019-09-16 Amit Moscovich , Boaz Nadler

We present improved numerical approximations to the exact Poissonian confidence limits for small numbers n of observed events following the approach of Gehrels (1986). Analytic descriptions of all parameters used in the approximations are…

Astrophysics · Physics 2009-11-07 Harald Ebeling

We present a simple derivation of a Feynman-Kac type formula to study fermionic systems. In this approach the real time or the imaginary time dynamics is expressed in terms of the evolution of a collection of Poisson processes. A computer…

Condensed Matter · Physics 2009-10-31 Matteo Beccaria , Carlo Presilla , Gian Fabrizio De Angelis , Giovanni Jona-Lasinio

A compound Poisson process whose randomized time is an independent Poisson process is called compound Poisson process with Poisson subordinator. We provide its probability distribution, which is expressed in terms of the Bell polynomials,…

Probability · Mathematics 2015-11-18 Antonio Di Crescenzo , Barbara Martinucci , Shelemyahu Zacks

In this paper we present multivariate space-time fractional Poisson processes by considering common random time-changes of a (finite-dimensional) vector of independent classical (non-fractional) Poisson processes. In some cases we also…

Probability · Mathematics 2015-07-22 Luisa Beghin , Claudio Macci

We establish a simple connection between robust and differentially-private algorithms: private mechanisms which perform well with very high probability are automatically robust in the sense that they retain accuracy even if a constant…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-12-02 Kristian Georgiev , Samuel B. Hopkins

A procedure to include the uncertainty on the background estimate for upper limit calculations using Poissonian sampling is presented for the case where a Gaussian assumption on the uncertainty can be made. Under that hypothesis an analytic…

High Energy Physics - Experiment · Physics 2015-06-25 Luca Lista

We present the first framework for Gaussian-process-modulated Poisson processes when the temporal data appear in the form of panel counts. Panel count data frequently arise when experimental subjects are observed only at discrete time…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-03-13 Hongyi Ding , Young Lee , Issei Sato , Masashi Sugiyama

In this work we consider time series with a finite number of discrete point changes. We assume that the data in each segment follows a different probability density functions (pdf). We focus on the case where the data in all segments are…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2007-05-23 Ali Mohammad-Djafari , Olivier Feron

We consider a Cox process with Poisson shot noise intensity which has been widely applied in insurance, finance, queue theory, statistic, and many other fields. Cox process is flexible because its intensity depends on not only the time but…

Probability · Mathematics 2018-12-03 Zailei Cheng , Youngsoo Seol

Fractional Poisson processes, a rapidly growing area of non-Markovian stochastic processes, are useful in statistics to describe data from counting processes when waiting times are not exponentially distributed. We show that the fractional…

Classical Analysis and ODEs · Mathematics 2013-10-14 Markus Kreer , Ayse Kizilersu , Anthony W. Thomas