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In this paper, we develop a general theory on the coverage probability of random intervals defined in terms of discrete random variables with continuous parameter spaces. The theory shows that the minimum coverage probabilities of random…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2011-04-12 Xinjia Chen

It is shown that all the Frequentist methods are equivalent from a statistical point of view, but the physical significance of the confidence intervals depends on the method. The Bayesian Ordering method is presented and confronted with the…

High Energy Physics - Experiment · Physics 2007-05-23 C. Giunti

A calculator program has been written to give confidence intervals on branching ratios for rare decay modes (or similar quantities) calculated from the number of events observed, the acceptance factor, the background estimate and the…

High Energy Physics - Experiment · Physics 2011-07-19 Roger Barlow

Under mild assumptions the equivalence of the mixed Poisson process with mixing parameter a real-valued random variable to the one with mixing distribution as well as to the mixed Poisson process in the sense of Huang is obtained, and a…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-07-20 D. P. Lyberopoulos , N. D. Macheras , S. M. Tzaninis

Turing's estimator allows one to estimate the probabilities of outcomes that either do not appear or only rarely appear in a given random sample. We perform a simulation study to understand the finite sample performance of several related…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-03-19 Jie Chang , Michael Grabchak , Jialin Zhang

Confidence intervals (CIs) are instrumental in statistical analysis, providing a range estimate of the parameters. In modern statistics, selective inference is common, where only certain parameters are highlighted. However, this selective…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-09-17 Tzviel Frostig , Yoav Benjamini , Ruth Heller

A family of consistent tests, derived from a characterization of the probability generating function, is proposed for assessing Poissonity against a wide class of count distributions, which includes some of the most frequently adopted…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-06-11 Antonio Di Noia , Marzia Marcheselli , Caterina Pisani , Luca Pratelli

A prediction interval covers a future observation from a random process in repeated sampling, and is typically constructed by identifying a pivotal quantity that is also an ancillary statistic. Analogously, a tolerance interval covers a…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-01-19 Geoffrey S Johnson

A method is described, which computes from an observed sample of events upper limits for production rates of particles, or, in case of appearance of a signal, the probability for an upwards fluctuation of the background. For any candidate,…

High Energy Physics - Experiment · Physics 2010-10-27 P. Bock

Consider an unlimited homogeneous medium disturbed by points generated via Poisson process. The neighborhood of a point plays an important role in spatial statistics problems. Here, we obtain analytically the distance statistics to $k$th…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2015-08-11 Cristiano Roberto Fabri Granzotti , Alexandre Souto Martinez

We consider the problem of constructing confidence intervals for the median of a response $Y \in \mathbb{R}$ conditional on features $X \in \mathbb{R}^d$ in a situation where we are not willing to make any assumption whatsoever on the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-09-07 Dhruv Medarametla , Emmanuel J. Candès

A validated simulation model primarily requires performing an appropriate input analysis mainly by determining the behavior of real-world processes using probability distributions. In many practical cases, probability distributions of the…

Applications · Statistics 2014-03-05 Issac Shams , Saeede Ajorlou , Kai Yang

In this paper, we develop a computational approach for estimating the mean value of a quantity in the presence of uncertainty. We demonstrate that, under some mild assumptions, the upper and lower bounds of the mean value are efficiently…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2013-11-05 Xinjia Chen

By the method of Poissonization we confirm some existing results concerning consistent estimation of the structural distribution function in the situation of a large number of rare events. Inconsistency of the so called natural estimator is…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2007-06-13 Bert van Es , Stamatis Kolios

In this paper, we describe a general method for constructing the posterior distribution of an option price. Our framework takes as inputs the prior distributions of the parameters of the stochastic process followed by the underlying, as…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2008-12-02 Henryk Gzyl , Enrique ter Horst , Samuel Malone

Confidence interval of mean is often used when quoting statistics. The same rigor is often missing when quoting percentiles and tolerance or percentile intervals. This article derives the expression for confidence in percentiles of a sample…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-03-01 Sanjay M. Joshi

In this paper, two parametric probability distributions capable to describe the statistics of X-ray photon detection by a CCD are presented. They are formulated from simple models that account for the pile-up phenomenon, in which two or…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2013-10-30 Diego J. R. Sevilla

In this note we discuss additional properties of mixed Poisson distributions. We discuss the convergence of mixed Poisson distributions to its mixing distribution for the scaling parameter tending to infinity. Moreover, we obtain a central…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-02-13 Markus Kuba

Certain monotonicity properties of the Poisson approximation to the binomial distribution are established. As a natural application of these results, exact (rather than approximate) tests of hypotheses on an unknown value of the parameter…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-08-05 Iosif Pinelis

In this paper we first provide a method to compute confidence intervals for the center of a piecewise normal distribution given a sample from this distribution, under certain assumptions. We then extend this method to an asymptotic setting,…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2022-08-08 Shu Lu , Hongsheng Liu
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