Related papers: Clopper-Pearson Bounds from HEP Data Cuts
A search for the Standard Model Higgs boson with the OPAL detector at LEP was reported. The analysis was based on the full data sample collected at center-of-mass energies of 192-209 GeV in 1999 and 2000, corresponding to an integrated…
In experiments where one searches a large parameter space for an anomaly, one often finds many spurious noise-induced peaks in the likelihood. This is known as the look-elsewhere effect, and must be corrected for when performing statistical…
In high energy physics, a widely used method to treat systematic uncertainties in confidence interval calculations is based on combining a frequentist construction of confidence belts with a Bayesian treatment of systematic uncertainties.…
This paper considers the problem of detecting a few signals in high-dimensional complex-valued Gaussian data satisfying Johnstone's (2001) \textit{spiked covariance model}. We focus on the difficult case where signals are weak in the sense…
Conformal prediction (CP) offers distribution-free marginal coverage guarantees under an exchangeability assumption, but these guarantees can fail if the data distribution shifts. We analyze the use of pseudo-calibration as a tool to…
We develop scalable methods for producing conformal Bayesian predictive intervals with finite sample calibration guarantees. Bayesian posterior predictive distributions, $p(y \mid x)$, characterize subjective beliefs on outcomes of…
Expectation Propagation is a very popular algorithm for variational inference, but comes with few theoretical guarantees. In this article, we prove that the approximation errors made by EP can be bounded. Our bounds have an asymptotic…
The proportional hazards (PH) model is arguably one of the most popular models used to analyze time to event data arising from clinical trials and longitudinal studies, among many others. In many such studies, the event time of interest is…
Suppose $1 < p < \infty$. Carleson's Theorem states that the Fourier series of any function in $L^p[-\pi, \pi]$ converges almost everywhere. We show that the Schnorr random points are precisely those that satisfy this theorem for every $f…
This paper considers a new bootstrap procedure to estimate the distribution of high-dimensional $\ell_p$-statistics, i.e. the $\ell_p$-norms of the sum of $n$ independent $d$-dimensional random vectors with $d \gg n$ and $p \in [1,…
The problem of probabilistic verification of a neural network investigates the probability of satisfying the safe constraints in the output space when the input is given by a probability distribution. It is significant to answer this…
The status of hadron-hadron interactions is reviewed, with emphasis on the forward and near-forward scattering regions. From analyticity, Finite Energy Sum Rules are introduced from which new analyticity constraints are derived that exploit…
Two alternative exact characterizations of the minimum error probability of Bayesian M-ary hypothesis testing are derived. The first expression corresponds to the error probability of an induced binary hypothesis test and implies the…
Expectation Propagation (Minka, 2001) is a widely successful algorithm for variational inference. EP is an iterative algorithm used to approximate complicated distributions, typically to find a Gaussian approximation of posterior…
When selecting a model to characterize an astrophysical population, it is crucial to assess whether that model fits the data and, if not, how it can be improved. To this end, posterior predictive checks (PPCs) are a widely-used statistical…
The 40 years old Standard Model, the theory of particle physics, seems to describe all experimental data very well. All of its elementary particles were identified and studied apart from the Higgs boson until 2012. For decades many…
Concentration of measure has been argued to be the fundamental cause of adversarial vulnerability. Mahloujifar et al. presented an empirical way to measure the concentration of a data distribution using samples, and employed it to find…
Pearson's chi-squared test, from 1900, is the standard statistical tool for "hypothesis testing on distributions": namely, given samples from an unknown distribution $Q$ that may or may not equal a hypothesis distribution $P$, we want to…
This paper proposes probabilistic conformal prediction (PCP), a predictive inference algorithm that estimates a target variable by a discontinuous predictive set. Given inputs, PCP construct the predictive set based on random samples from…
The high energy physics unfolding problem is an important statistical inverse problem in data analysis at the Large Hadron Collider (LHC) at CERN. The goal of unfolding is to make nonparametric inferences about a particle spectrum from…