Related papers: A decision-theoretic approach to reliable message …

The automatic generation of decision trees based on off-line reasoning on models of a domain is a reasonable compromise between the advantages of using a model-based approach in technical domains and the constraints imposed by embedded…

Information delivery in a network of agents is a key issue for large, complex systems that need to do so in a predictable, efficient manner. The delivery of information in such multi-agent systems is typically implemented through routing…

This paper provides a statistical method to test whether a system that performs a binary sequential hypothesis test is optimal in the sense of minimizing the average decision times while taking decisions with given reliabilities. The…

We study the problem of an agent continuously faced with the decision of placing or not placing trust in an institution. The agent makes use of Bayesian learning in order to estimate the institution's true trustworthiness and makes the…

Communication systems to date primarily aim at reliably communicating bit sequences. Such an approach provides efficient engineering designs that are agnostic to the meanings of the messages or to the goal that the message exchange aims to…

Computation plays a major role in decision making. Even if an agent is willing to ascribe a probability to all states and a utility to all outcomes, and maximize expected utility, doing so might present serious computational problems.…

Systems design processes are increasingly reliant on simulation models to inform design decisions. A pervasive issue within the systems engineering community is trusting in the models used to make decisions about complex systems. This work…

Game theory provides a framework for studying communication dynamics and emergent phenomena arising from rational agent interactions. We present a model framework for the Volunteer's Dilemma with four key contributions: (1) formulating it…

Predicting the future is an important component of decision making. In most situations, however, there is not enough information to make accurate predictions. In this paper, we develop a theory of causal reasoning for predictive inference…

In the report the approach to estimation of quality of planned experiments is considered. This approach is based on the analysis of uncertainty, which will take place under the future hypotheses testing about the existence of a new…

The actions of intelligent agents, such as chatbots, recommender systems, and virtual assistants are typically not fully transparent to the user. Consequently, using such an agent involves the user exposing themselves to the risk that the…

This paper presents a computationally efficient model for optimizing real-time decisions in humanitarian aid delivery systems. Our formulation models a hierarchical system and is a mixed integer, probabilistic, non-linear and non-concave…

Epistemic analysis of distributed systems is one of the biggest successes among applications of logic in computer science. The reason for that is that agents' actions are necessarily guided by their knowledge. Thus, epistemic modal logic,…

Probabilistic forecasts are becoming more and more available. How should they be used and communicated? What are the obstacles to their use in practice? I review experience with five problems where probabilistic forecasting played an…

Decision tree induction systems are being used for knowledge acquisition in noisy domains. This paper develops a subjective Bayesian interpretation of the task tackled by these systems and the heuristic methods they use. It is argued that…

In industrial contexts, effective workforce allocation is crucial for operational efficiency. This paper presents an ongoing project focused on developing a decision-making tool designed for workforce allocation, emphasising the…

One formal way of studying cooperation and incentive mechanisms in wireless ad hoc networks is to use game theory. In this respect, simple interaction models such as the forwarder's dilemma have been proposed and used successfully. However,…

Current practice for evaluating recommender systems typically focuses on point estimates of user-oriented effectiveness metrics or business metrics, sometimes combined with additional metrics for considerations such as diversity and…

Based on ideas of quantum theory of open systems we propose the consistent approach to the formulation of logic of plausible propositions. To this end we associate with every plausible proposition diagonal matrix of its likelihood and…

Integrated interpretability without sacrificing the prediction accuracy of decision making algorithms has the potential of greatly improving their value to the user. Instead of assigning a label to an image directly, we propose to learn…