Related papers: Linear Predictive Coding as an Estimator of Volati…
Econophysics and econometrics agree that there is a correlation between volume and volatility in a time series. Using empirical data and their distributions, we further investigate this correlation and discover new ways that volatility and…
We propose a family of models that enable predictive estimation of time-varying extreme event probabilities in heavy-tailed and nonlinearly dependent time series. The models are a white noise process with conditionally log-Laplace…
Volatility for financial assets returns can be used to gauge the risk for financial market. We propose a deep stochastic volatility model (DSVM) based on the framework of deep latent variable models. It uses flexible deep learning models to…
Volatility of financial stock is referring to the degree of uncertainty or risk embedded within a stock's dynamics. Such risk has been received huge amounts of attention from diverse financial researchers. By following the concept of…
The autocorrelation function of volatility in financial time series is fitted well by a superposition of several exponents. Such a case admits an explicit analytical solution of the problem of constructing the best linear forecast of a…
It is a market practice to express market-implied volatilities in some parametric form. The most popular parametrizations are based on or inspired by an underlying stochastic model, like the Heston model (SVI method) or the SABR model (SABR…
In this paper, we propose the uncertain volatility models with stochastic bounds. Like the regular uncertain volatility models, we know only that the true model lies in a family of progressively measurable and bounded processes, but instead…
We show that scaling arguments are very useful to analyze the dynamics of periodically modulated noisy systems. Information about the behavior of the relevant quantities, such as the signal-to-noise ratio, upon variations of the noise…
A change of variables is introduced to reduce certain nonlinear stochastic evolution equations with multiplicative noise to the corresponding deterministic equation. The result is then used to investigate a stochastic porous medium…
"Noise-induced volatility" refers to a phenomenon of increased level of fluctuations in the collective dynamics of bistable units in the presence of a rapidly varying external signal, and intermediate noise levels. The archetypical…
In this paper, we employ the Heston stochastic volatility model to describe the stock's volatility and apply the model to derive and analyze the optimal trading strategies for dealers in a security market. We also extend our study to option…
A novel dynamical model for the study of operational risk in banks and suitable for the calculation of the Value at Risk (VaR) is proposed. The equation of motion takes into account the interactions among different bank's processes, the…
Volatility measures the amplitude of price fluctuations. Despite it is one of the most important quantities in finance, volatility is not directly observable. Here we apply a maximum likelihood method which assumes that price and volatility…
We introduce a new identification strategy for uncertainty shocks to explain macroeconomic volatility in financial markets. The Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index (VIX) measures market expectations of future volatility, but…
We deal with the calculation of price sensitivities for stochastic volatility models. General forms for the dynamics of the underlying asset price and its volatility are considered. We make use of the chaotic (or Malliavin) calculus to…
In the present paper, we first revisit the volatility estimation approach proposed by N. Kunitomo and S. Sato, and second, we show that the volatility estimator proposed by P. Malliavin and M.E. Mancino can be understood in a unified way by…
Based on criteria of mathematical simplicity and consistency with empirical market data, a model with volatility driven by fractional noise has been constructed which provides a fairly accurate mathematical parametrization of the data.…
The technique of stochastic solutions, previously used for deterministic equations, is here proposed as a solution method for partial differential equations driven by distribution-valued noises.
In the information-based approach to asset pricing the market filtration is modelled explicitly as a superposition of signals concerning relevant market factors and independent noise. The rate at which the signal is revealed to the market…
Can noise be beneficial to machine-learning prediction of chaotic systems? Utilizing reservoir computers as a paradigm, we find that injecting noise to the training data can induce a stochastic resonance with significant benefits to both…