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Inference in hidden Markov model has been challenging in terms of scalability due to dependencies in the observation data. In this paper, we utilize the inherent memory decay in hidden Markov models, such that the forward and backward…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-01-14 Felix X. -F. Ye , Yi-an Ma , Hong Qian

Transfer entropy is a measure of the magnitude and the direction of information flow between jointly distributed stochastic processes. In recent years, its permutation analogues are considered in the literature to estimate the transfer…

Chaotic Dynamics · Physics 2013-03-12 Taichi Haruna , Kohei Nakajima

Model reduction of Markov processes is a basic problem in modeling state-transition systems. Motivated by the state aggregation approach rooted in control theory, we study the statistical state compression of a discrete-state Markov chain…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-11-26 Anru Zhang , Mengdi Wang

The transfer entropy is a well-established measure of information flow, which quantifies directed influence between two stochastic time series and has been shown to be useful in a variety fields of science. Here we introduce the transfer…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2018-07-23 Sosuke Ito

The second law of thermodynamics states that entropy production cannot be negative. Recent developments concerning uncertainty relations in stochastic thermodynamics, such as thermodynamic uncertainty relations and speed limits, have…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2023-10-09 Tomohiro Nishiyama , Yoshihiko Hasegawa

A hidden Markov model (HMM) is said to have path-mergeable states if for any two states i,j there exists a word w and state k such that it is possible to transition from both i and j to k while emitting w. We show that for a finite HMM with…

Probability · Mathematics 2014-02-06 Nicholas F. Travers

We study how the Shannon entropy of sequences produced by an information source converges to the source's entropy rate. We synthesize several phenomenological approaches to applying information theoretic measures of randomness and memory to…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2007-05-23 James P. Crutchfield , David P. Feldman

A possibly time-dependent transition intensity matrix or generator $(Q(t))$ characterizes the law of a Markov jump process (MP). For a time homogeneous MP, the transition probability matrix (TPM) can be expressed as a matrix exponential of…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-07-23 Dario Gasbarra , Sangita Kulathinal , Etienne Sebag

This work derives a theoretical value for the entropy of a Linear Additive Markov Process (LAMP), an expressive model able to generate sequences with a given autocorrelation structure. While a first-order Markov Chain model generates new…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2023-01-10 Bridget Smart , Matthew Roughan , Lewis Mitchell

A hidden Markov process is a well known concept in information theory and is used for a vast range of applications such as speech recognition and error correction. We bridge between two disciplines, experimental physics and advanced…

Mesoscale and Nanoscale Physics · Physics 2015-06-24 Ido Kanter , Aviad Frydman , Asaf Ater

Estimating the dissipation, or the entropy production rate (EPR), can provide insights into the underlying mechanisms of nonequilibrium driven processes. Experimentally, however, only partial information can be accessed, and the ability to…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2022-12-29 Uri Kapustin , Aishani Ghosal , Gili Bisker

Inferring models, predicting the future, and estimating the entropy rate of discrete-time, discrete-event processes is well-worn ground. However, a much broader class of discrete-event processes operates in continuous-time. Here, we provide…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2020-05-11 S. E. Marzen , J. P. Crutchfield

The inference of thermodynamic quantities from the description of an only partially accessible physical system is a central challenge in stochastic thermodynamics. A common approach is coarse-graining, which maps the dynamics of such a…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2022-08-19 Jann van der Meer , Benjamin Ertel , Udo Seifert

Hidden Markov models can describe time series arising in various fields of science, by treating the data as noisy measurements of an arbitrarily complex Markov process. Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) methods have become standard tools to…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-05-19 Pierre E. Jacob

We show that memory, feedback, and activity are all describable by the same unifying concept, that is non-reciprocal (NR) coupling. We demonstrate that characteristic thermodynamic features of these intrinsically nonequilibrium systems are…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2019-10-21 Sarah A. M. Loos , Simon M. Hermann , Sabine H. L. Klapp

For the continuous-time and the discrete-time three-state hidden Markov model, the flux of the likelihood function up to 3-dimension of the observed process is shown explicitly. As an application, the sufficient and necessary condition of…

Probability · Mathematics 2011-01-31 Yong Chen

For a wide class of continuous-time Markov processes, including all irreducible hypoelliptic diffusions evolving on an open, connected subset of $\RL^d$, the following are shown to be equivalent: (i) The process satisfies (a slightly weaker…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-04-27 Ioannis Kontoyiannis , Sean P. Meyn

The number of observable degrees of freedom is typically limited in experiments. Here, we consider discrete Markov networks in which an observer has access to a few visible transitions and the waiting times between these transitions.…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2025-09-26 Alexander M. Maier , Udo Seifert , Jann van der Meer

Multi-state models are frequently applied for representing processes evolving through a discrete set of state. Important classes of multi-state models arise when transitions between states may depend on the time since entry into the current…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-02-28 Rosario Barone , Andrea Tancredi

Motivated by applications in movement ecology, in this paper I propose a new class of integrated continuous-time hidden Markov models in which each observation depends on the underlying state of the process over the whole interval since the…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-10-01 Paul G Blackwell