Related papers: On Sequence Prediction for Arbitrary Measures
A sequence $x_1,\dots,x_n,\dots$ of discrete-valued observations is generated according to some unknown probabilistic law (measure) $\mu$. After observing each outcome, one is required to give conditional probabilities of the next…
The problem is sequence prediction in the following setting. A sequence $x_1,...,x_n,...$ of discrete-valued observations is generated according to some unknown probabilistic law (measure) $\mu$. After observing each outcome, it is required…
The problem is sequence prediction in the following setting. A sequence $x_1,...,x_n,...$ of discrete-valued observations is generated according to some unknown probabilistic law (measure) $\mu$. After observing each outcome, it is required…
The problem is sequence prediction in the following setting. A sequence x1,..., xn,... of discrete-valued observations is generated according to some unknown probabilistic law (measure) mu. After observing each outcome, it is required to…
We study the question, ``For which reals $x$ does there exist a measure $\mu$ such that $x$ is random relative to $\mu$?'' We show that for every nonrecursive $x$, there is a measure which makes $x$ random without concentrating on $x$. We…
A causal set is a partially ordered set on a countably infinite ground-set such that each element is above finitely many others. A natural extension of a causal set is an enumeration of its elements which respects the order. We bring…
Consider a finite set of sources, each producing i.i.d. observations that follow a unique probability distribution on a finite alphabet. We study the problem of matching a finite set of observed sequences to the set of sources under the…
The predictability of a sequence is defined as the asymptotic performance of the best performing predictor in a given class. The value of the predictability of a sequence will in general depend on the choice of this predictor class. The…
A causal set is a countably infinite poset in which every element is above finitely many others; causal sets are exactly the posets that have a linear extension with the order-type of the natural numbers -- we call such a linear extension a…
This paper studies when a sequence of probability measures on a metric space admit subsequential weak limits. A sufficient condition called sequential tightness is formulated, which relaxes some assumptions for asymptotic tightness used in…
Probabilities in the multiverse can be calculated by assuming that we are typical representatives in a given reference class. But is this class well defined? What should be included in the ensemble in which we are supposed to be typical?…
We describe the interface between measure theoretic probability and causal inference by constructing causal models on probability spaces within the potential outcomes framework. We find that measure theory provides a precise and instructive…
We show on theoretical grounds that, even in the presence of noise, probabilistic measurement strategies (which have a certain probability of failure or abstention) can provide, upon a heralded successful outcome, estimates with a precision…
We consider the problem of computing the measure of a regular set of infinite binary trees. While the general case remains unsolved, we show that the measure of a language can be computed when the set is given in one of the following three…
The problem of sequential probability forecasting is considered in the most general setting: a model set C is given, and it is required to predict as well as possible if any of the measures (environments) in C is chosen to generate the…
The moment problem in probability theory asks for criteria for when there exists a unique measure with a given tuple of moments. We study a variant of this problem for random objects in a category, where a moment is given by the average…
The problem is that of sequential probability forecasting for finite-valued time series. The data is generated by an unknown probability distribution over the space of all one-way infinite sequences. It is known that this measure belongs to…
An infinite binary sequence is deemed to be random if it has all definable properties that hold almost surely for the usual probability measure on the set of infinite binary sequences. There are only countably many such properties, so it…
This note establishes that if a sequence $P_n, n=1,\ldots$ of probability measures converges in total variation to the limiting probability measure $P$, and $\sigma$-algebras $\mathbb{A}$ and $\mathbb{B}$ are conditionally independent given…
Let $S$ be a Polish space and $(X_n:n\geq1)$ an exchangeable sequence of $S$-valued random variables. Let $\alpha_n(\cdot)=P(X_{n+1}\in \cdot\mid X_1,\...,X_n)$ be the predictive measure and $\alpha$ a random probability measure on $S$ such…