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Analyzing the effect of business cycle on rating transitions has been a subject of great interest these last fifteen years, particularly due to the increasing pressure coming from regulators for stress testing. In this paper, we consider…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-06-02 Areski Cousin , Jérôme Lelong , Tom Picard

We consider the problem of state estimation in dynamical systems and propose a different mechanism for handling unmodeled system uncertainties. Instead of injecting random process noise, we assign different weights to measurements so that…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2020-09-08 Yaron Shulami , Daniel Sigalov

This paper proposes a new Bayesian strategy for the smooth estimation of altimetric parameters. The altimetric signal is assumed to be corrupted by a thermal and speckle noise distributed according to an independent and non identically…

Applications · Statistics 2016-04-20 Abderrahim Halimi , Corinne Mailhes , Jean-Yves Tourneret , Hichem Snoussi

The filtering of a Markov diffusion process on a manifold from counting process observations leads to `large' changes in the conditional distribution upon an observed event, corresponding to a multiplication of the density by the intensity…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2019-11-01 Simone Carlo Surace , Anna Kutschireiter , Jean-Pascal Pfister

Particle smoothers are widely used algorithms allowing to approximate the smoothing distribution in hidden Markov models. Existing algorithms often suffer from slow computational time or degeneracy. We propose in this paper a way to improve…

Methodology · Statistics 2011-07-28 Cyrille Dubarry , Randal Douc

The objective of this article is to study the asymptotic behavior of a new particle filtering approach in the context of hidden Markov models (HMMs). In particular, we develop an algorithm where the latent-state sequence is segmented into…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2014-09-16 Hock Peng Chan , Chiang Wee Heng , Ajay Jasra

This paper explores innovations to parameter estimation in generalized linear and nonlinear models, which may be used in item response modeling to account for guessing/pretending or slipping/dissimulation and for the effect of covariates.…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-07-03 Adéla Hladká , Patrícia Martinková , Marek Brabec

We consider a network of sensors deployed to sense a spatio-temporal field and estimate a parameter of interest. We are interested in the case where the temporal process sensed by each sensor can be modeled as a state-space process that is…

Distributed, Parallel, and Cluster Computing · Computer Science 2008-04-12 S. Sundhar Ram , V. V. Veeravalli , A. Nedic

As one of Bayesian analysis tools, Hidden Markov Model (HMM) has been used to in extensive applications. Most HMMs are solved by Baum-Welch algorithm (BWHMM) to predict the model parameters, which is difficult to find global optimal…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-11-09 L. Chang , Yacine Ouzrout , Antoine Nongaillard , Abdelaziz Bouras

Diffusion MRI (dMRI) is the primary imaging modality used to study brain microstructure in vivo. Reliable and computationally efficient parameter inference for common dMRI biophysical models is a challenging inverse problem, due to factors…

Image and Video Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2025-03-03 William Consagra , Lipeng Ning , Yogesh Rathi

The Hidden Markov Model (HMM) is one of the mainstays of statistical modeling of discrete time series, with applications including speech recognition, computational biology, computer vision and econometrics. Estimating an HMM from its…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2015-12-29 Fanny Yang , Sivaraman Balakrishnan , Martin J. Wainwright

This article aims to investigate the impact of noise on parameter fitting for an Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process, focusing on the effects of multiplicative and thermal noise on the accuracy of signal separation. To address these issues, we…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-07-11 Simon Carter , Lilianne Mujica-Parodi , Helmut H. Strey

In High Energy Physics experiments Particle Flow (PFlow) algorithms are designed to provide an optimal reconstruction of the nature and kinematic properties of the particles produced within the detector acceptance during collisions. At the…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2021-02-10 Francesco Armando Di Bello , Sanmay Ganguly , Eilam Gross , Marumi Kado , Michael Pitt , Lorenzo Santi , Jonathan Shlomi

This paper studies an approximation method for the log-likelihood function of a nonlinear diffusion process using the bridge of the diffusion. The main result (Theorem \refthm:approx) shows that this approximation converges uniformly to the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2010-01-11 Aleksandar Mijatović , Paul Schneider

This paper addresses the challenging problem of parameter estimation in bilinear systems under colored noise. A novel approach, termed B-PF-RLS, is proposed, combining a particle filter (PF) with a recursive least squares (RLS) estimator.…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2025-05-20 Khalid Abd El Mageed Hag Elamin

Herein, the Hidden Markov Model is expanded to allow for Markov chain observations. In particular, the observations are assumed to be a Markov chain whose one step transition probabilities depend upon the hidden Markov chain. An…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-04-18 Michael A. Kouritzin

We study the problem of distributed adaptive estimation over networks where nodes cooperate to estimate physical parameters that can vary over both space and time domains. We use a set of basis functions to characterize the space-varying…

Systems and Control · Computer Science 2015-07-22 Reza Abdolee , Benoit Champagne , Ali H. Sayed

We consider the problem of fitting a parametric model to time-series data that are afflicted by correlated noise. The noise is represented by a sum of two stationary Gaussian processes: one that is uncorrelated in time, and another that has…

Earth and Planetary Astrophysics · Physics 2014-11-20 Joshua A. Carter , Joshua N. Winn

The article considers parameter estimation constructing such as quasi-maximum likelyhood estimation and one step estimation in statistical models generated by solution of stochastic differential equation. It has been developed a software…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-03-12 Dmytro Ivanenko , Rostyslav Pogorielov

Profile hidden Markov models (pHMMs) are widely employed in various bioinformatics applications to identify similarities between biological sequences, such as DNA or protein sequences. In pHMMs, sequences are represented as graph…