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We introduce a robust belief-based measure of complexity. The idea is that task A is deemed more complex than task B if the probability of solving A correctly is smaller than the probability of solving B correctly regardless of the reward.…

Theoretical Economics · Economics 2025-01-17 Egor Bronnikov , Elias Tsakas

We aim at measuring the influence of the nondeterministic choices of a part of a system on its ability to satisfy a specification. For this purpose, we apply the concept of Shapley values to verification as a means to evaluate how important…

Logic in Computer Science · Computer Science 2021-04-21 Corto Mascle , Christel Baier , Florian Funke , Simon Jantsch , Stefan Kiefer

Responsibility allocation -- determining the extent to which agents are accountable for outcomes -- is a fundamental challenge in the design and analysis of multi-agent systems. In this work, we model such systems as concurrent stochastic…

Multiagent Systems · Computer Science 2026-05-14 Chunyan Mu , Muhammad Najib

As probabilistic systems gain popularity and are coming into wider use, the need for a mechanism that explains the system's findings and recommendations becomes more critical. The system will also need a mechanism for ordering competing…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2013-02-08 Urszula Chajewska , Joseph Y. Halpern

In many scenarios, human decisions are explained based on some high-level concepts. In this work, we take a step in the interpretability of neural networks by examining their internal representation or neuron's activations against concepts.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-11-09 Mohammad Nokhbeh Zaeem , Majid Komeili

There is a brief description of the probabilistic causal graph model for representing, reasoning with, and learning causal structure using Bayesian networks. It is then argued that this model is closely related to how humans reason with and…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2013-02-08 Scott B. Morris , Doug Cork , Richard E. Neapolitan

Responsibility anticipation is the process of determining if the actions of an individual agent may cause it to be responsible for a particular outcome. This can be used in a multi-agent planning setting to allow agents to anticipate…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2023-08-01 Timothy Parker , Umberto Grandi , Emiliano Lorini

These notes present some elements of causality theory. While they are not as complete as other treatments of the topic, there is some originality in that the whole approach is based on a definition of causal curves which allows to simplify…

General Relativity and Quantum Cosmology · Physics 2011-11-01 Piotr T. Chruściel

Explanations are a fundamental element of how people make sense of the political world. Citizens routinely ask and answer questions about why events happen, who is responsible, and what could or should be done differently. Yet despite their…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-12-04 Paulina Garcia-Corral

Correlation is not causation. As simple as this widely agreed-upon statement may seem, scientifically defining causality and using it to drive our modern biomedical research is immensely challenging. In this perspective, we attempt to…

Molecular Networks · Quantitative Biology 2024-01-19 Sebastian Lobentanzer , Pablo Rodriguez-Mier , Stefan Bauer , Julio Saez-Rodriguez

The starting point of the present paper is Bell's notion of local causality and his own sharpening of it so as to provide for mathematical formalisation. Starting with Norsen's (2007, 2009) analysis of this formalisation, it is subjected to…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2011-08-22 M. P. Seevinck , J. Uffink

Causal inference plays an important role in explanatory analysis and decision making across various fields like statistics, marketing, health care, and education. Its main task is to estimate treatment effects and make intervention…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-07-22 Yingrong Wang , Haoxuan Li , Minqin Zhu , Anpeng Wu , Ruoxuan Xiong , Fei Wu , Kun Kuang

Recently, it has been shown that the causality and information flow between two time series can be inferred in a rigorous and quantitative sense, and, besides, the resulting causality can be normalized. A corollary that follows is, in the…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2020-01-30 X. San Liang , Xiuqun Yang

The explicit link between Promise Theory and Information Theory, while perhaps obvious, is laid out explicitly here. It's shown how causally related observations of promised behaviours relate to the probabilistic formulation of causal…

Multiagent Systems · Computer Science 2020-04-28 Mark Burgess

As society transitions towards an AI-based decision-making infrastructure, an ever-increasing number of decisions once under control of humans are now delegated to automated systems. Even though such developments make various parts of…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2023-06-09 Drago Plecko , Elias Bareinboim

Learning about the causal structure of the world is a fundamental problem for human cognition. Causal models and especially causal learning have proved to be difficult for large pretrained models using standard techniques of deep learning.…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2026-04-16 Eunice Yiu , Kelsey Allen , Shiry Ginosar , Alison Gopnik

Despite the major advances taken in causal modeling, causality is still an unfamiliar topic for many statisticians. In this paper, it is demonstrated from the beginning to the end how causal effects can be estimated from observational data…

Methodology · Statistics 2014-07-03 Juha Karvanen

We develop rigorous notions of causality and causal separability in the process framework introduced in [Oreshkov, Costa, Brukner, Nat. Commun. 3, 1092 (2012)], which describes correlations between separate local experiments without a prior…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2016-09-14 Ognyan Oreshkov , Christina Giarmatzi

Intercausal reasoning is a common inference pattern involving probabilistic dependence of causes of an observed common effect. The sign of this dependence is captured by a qualitative property called product synergy. The current definition…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2013-03-08 Marek J. Druzdzel , Max Henrion

To evaluate a single cause of a binary effect, Dawid et al. (2014) defined the probability of causation, while Pearl (2015) defined the probabilities of necessity and sufficiency. For assessing the multiple correlated causes of a binary…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-04-09 Shanshan Luo , Yixuan Yu , Chunchen Liu , Feng Xie , Zhi Geng