Related papers: Great Expectations. Part II: Generalized Expected …
The purpose of this paper is to report on the most recent developments in our ongoing investigation of the representation and manipulation of uncertainty in automated reasoning systems. In our earlier studies (Tong and Shapiro, 1985) we…
We obtain an elementary characterization of expected utility based on a representation of choice in terms of psychological gambles, which requires no assumption other than coherence between ex-ante and ex-post preferences. Weaker version of…
A key task in certain democratic processes is to produce a concise slate of statements that proportionally represents the full spectrum of user opinions. This task is similar to committee elections, but unlike traditional settings, the…
This paper motivates the study of decision theory as necessary for aligning smarter-than-human artificial systems with human interests. We discuss the shortcomings of two standard formulations of decision theory, and demonstrate that they…
We study situations where a group of voters need to take a collective decision over a number of public issues, with the goal of getting a result that reflects the voters' opinions in a proportional manner. Our focus is on interconnected…
In this paper we introduce a qualitative decision and game theory based on belief (B) and desire (D) rules. We show that a group of agents acts as if it is maximizing achieved joint goals.
A binary renewal process is a stochastic process $\{X_n\}$ taking values in $\{0,1\}$ where the lengths of the runs of 1's between successive zeros are independent. After observing ${X_0,X_1,...,X_n}$ one would like to predict the future…
This paper examines the concept of a combination rule for belief functions. It is shown that two fairly simple and apparently reasonable assumptions determine Dempster's rule, giving a new justification for it.
Quantum decision theory is introduced here, and new basis for this theory is proposed. It is first based upon the author's general arguments for the Hilbert space formalism in quantum theory, next on arguments for the Born rule, that is,…
We consider several one-species population dynamics model with finite and infinite carrying capacity, time dependent growth and effort rates and solve them analytically. We show that defining suitable scaling functions for a given time, one…
In stochastic decision problems, one often wants to estimate the underlying probability measure statistically, and then to use this estimate as a basis for decisions. We shall consider how the uncertainty in this estimation can be…
Active inference is a leading theory of perception, learning and decision making, which can be applied to neuroscience, robotics, psychology, and machine learning. Active inference is based on the expected free energy, which is mostly…
The relationship of policy choice by majority voting and by maximization of utilitarian welfare has long been discussed. I consider choice between a status quo and a proposed policy when persons have interpersonally comparable cardinal…
Recent decades have seen an interest in prediction problems for which Bayesian methodology has been used ubiquitously. Sampling from or approximating the posterior predictive distribution in a Bayesian model allows one to make inferential…
Generalized planning is about finding plans that solve collections of planning instances, often infinite collections, rather than single instances. Recently it has been shown how to reduce the planning problem for generalized planning to…
In this paper, we first propose a natural generalization of the well-known compare-and-swap object, one that replaces the equality comparison with an arbitrary comparator. We then present a simple wait-free universal construction using this…
Rewards typically express desirabilities or preferences over a set of alternatives. Here we propose that rewards can be defined for any probability distribution based on three desiderata, namely that rewards should be real-valued, additive…
Richard Cox [1] set the axiomatic foundations of probable inference and the algebra of propositions. He showed that consistency within these axioms requires certain rules for updating belief. In this paper we use the analogy between…
Future energy systems are subject to various uncertain influences. As resilient systems they should maintain a constantly high operational performance whatever happens. We explore different levels and time scales of decision making in…
A generalized information formula related to logical probability and fuzzy set is deduced from the classical information formula. The new information measure accords with to Popper's criterion for knowledge evolution very much. In…