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We examine how causal beliefs affect an agent's choices and how feedback on those choices leads to updated causal beliefs. Building on the structural-equations framework for modeling causality, we first examine the general problem of…

Theoretical Economics · Economics 2026-03-11 Joseph Y. Halpern , Evan Piermont , Marie-Louise Vierø

State-of-the-art results in typical classification tasks are mostly achieved by unexplainable machine learning methods, like deep neural networks, for instance. Contrarily, in this paper, we investigate the application of rule learning…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-03-11 Albert Nössig , Tobias Hell , Georg Moser

We propose a probabilistic model to aggregate the answers of respondents answering multiple-choice questions. The model does not assume that everyone has access to the same information, and so does not assume that the consensus answer is…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2017-03-16 John McCoy , Drazen Prelec

Two different approaches to dealing with probabilistic knowledge are examined -models and inductive inference. Examples of the first are: influence diagrams [1], Bayesian networks [2], log-linear models [3, 4]. Examples of the second are:…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2013-04-12 Norman C. Dalkey

My doctoral research focuses on understanding semantic knowledge in neural network models trained solely to predict natural language (referred to as language models, or LMs), by drawing on insights from the study of concepts and categories…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2021-11-05 Kanishka Misra

Leading agent-based trust models address two important needs. First, they show how an agent may estimate the trustworthiness of another agent based on prior interactions. Second, they show how agents may share their knowledge in order to…

Multiagent Systems · Computer Science 2014-01-17 Yonghong Wang , Chung-Wei Hang , Munindar P. Singh

As autonomous agents become more ubiquitous, they will eventually have to reason about the plans of other agents, which is known as theory of mind reasoning. We develop a planning-as-inference framework in which agents perform nested…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2020-03-06 Iris Rubi Seaman , Jan-Willem van de Meent , David Wingate

Knowing the reliability of a model's response is essential in practical applications. Given the strong generation capabilities of large language models (LLMs), research has focused on generating verbalized confidence. This approach is…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2026-04-02 Ante Wang , Weizhi Ma , Yang Liu

Deliberation plays an important role in the design of rational agents embedded in the real-world. In particular, deliberation leads to the formation of intentions, i.e., plans of action that the agent is committed to achieving. In this…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2013-03-26 Anand S. Rao , Michael P. Georgeff

This work is aimed at studying realistic social control strategies for social networks based on the introduction of random information into the state of selected driver agents. Deliberately exposing selected agents to random information is…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2018-07-23 Marco Cremonini , Francesca Casamassima

This article solves the Hume's problem of induction using a probabilistic approach. From the probabilistic perspective, the core task of induction is to estimate the probability of an event and judge the accuracy of the estimation.…

History and Overview · Mathematics 2024-10-03 Xuezhi Yang

This work is motivated by a question at the heart of unsupervised learning approaches: Assume we are collecting a number K of (subjective) opinions about some event E from K different agents. Can we infer E from them? Prima facie this seems…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2018-05-15 Janis Nötzel , Walter Swetly

In this work, we present the first general logic of attention. Attention is a powerful cognitive ability that allows agents to focus on potentially complex information, such as logically structured propositions, higher-order beliefs, or…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-05-21 Gaia Belardinelli , Thomas Bolander , Sebastian Watzl

In this article, we propose to use the formalism of quantum mechanics to describe and explain the so-called "abnormal" behaviour of agents in certain decision or choice contexts. The basic idea is to postulate that the preferences of these…

Physics and Society · Physics 2024-12-04 Herve Zwirn

Mechanisms for the automation of uncertainty are required for expert systems. Sometimes these mechanisms need to obey the properties of probabilistic reasoning. A purely numeric mechanism, like those proposed so far, cannot provide a…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2013-04-15 Alan Bundy

Common sense suggests that when individuals explain why they believe something, we can arrive at more accurate conclusions than when they simply state what they believe. Yet, there is no known mechanism that provides incentives to elicit…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2025-02-20 Siddarth Srinivasan , Ezra Karger , Michiel Bakker , Yiling Chen

Intelligent agents, such as robots, are increasingly deployed in real-world, human-centric environments. To foster appropriate human trust and meet legal and ethical standards, these agents must be able to explain their behavior. However,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-08-12 Zhang Xi-Jia , Yue Guo , Shufei Chen , Simon Stepputtis , Matthew Gombolay , Katia Sycara , Joseph Campbell

Certifiable, adaptive uncertainty estimates for unknown quantities are an essential ingredient of sequential decision-making algorithms. Standard approaches rely on problem-dependent concentration results and are limited to a specific…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-11-09 Nicolas Emmenegger , Mojmír Mutný , Andreas Krause

In this paper an approach to automated deduction under uncertainty,based on possibilistic logic, is proposed ; for that purpose we deal with clauses weighted by a degree which is a lower bound of a necessity or a possibility measure,…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2013-04-08 Didier Dubois , Jerome Lang , Henri Prade

The issue of whether we make decisions freely has vexed philosophers for millennia, Resolving this is vital for solving a diverse range of problems, from the physiology of how the brain makes decisions (and how we assign moral…

History and Philosophy of Physics · Physics 2025-06-30 Tim Palmer
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