Related papers: Convergence and Loss Bounds for Bayesian Sequence …
The standard margin-based structured prediction commonly uses a maximum loss over all possible structured outputs. The large-margin formulation including latent variables not only results in a non-convex formulation but also increases the…
The present article derives the minimal number $N$ of observations needed to consider a Bayesian posterior distribution as Gaussian. Two examples are presented. Within one of them, a chi-squared distribution, the observable $x$ as well as…
Optimality results for two outstanding Bayesian estimation problems are given in this paper: the estimation of the sampling distribution for the squared total variation function and the estimation of the density for the $L^1$-squared loss…
Maximum likelihood estimates (MLEs) are asymptotically normally distributed, and this property is used in meta-analyses to test the heterogeneity of estimates, either for a single cluster or for several sub-groups. More recently, MLEs for…
We develop minimax optimal risk bounds for the general learning task consisting in predicting as well as the best function in a reference set $\mathcal{G}$ up to the smallest possible additive term, called the convergence rate. When the…
As an automatic method of determining model complexity using the training data alone, Bayesian linear regression provides us a principled way to select hyperparameters. But one often needs approximation inference if distribution assumption…
We bound the future loss when predicting any (computably) stochastic sequence online. Solomonoff finitely bounded the total deviation of his universal predictor M from the true distribution m by the algorithmic complexity of m. Here we…
Selective prediction [Dru13, QV19] models the scenario where a forecaster freely decides on the prediction window that their forecast spans. Many data statistics can be predicted to a non-trivial error rate without any distributional…
In this paper the problem of learning appropriate bias for an environment of related tasks is examined from a Bayesian perspective. The environment of related tasks is shown to be naturally modelled by the concept of an {\em objective}…
Shape restrictions such as monotonicity on functions often arise naturally in statistical modeling. We consider a Bayesian approach to the problem of estimation of a monotone regression function and testing for monotonicity. We construct a…
Constraints are a natural choice for prior information in Bayesian inference. In various applications, the parameters of interest lie on the boundary of the constraint set. In this paper, we use a method that implicitly defines a…
The main question is: why and how can we ever predict based on a finite sample? The question is not answered by statistical learning theory. Here, I suggest that prediction requires belief in "predictability" of the underlying dependence,…
Supplement 1 to GUM (GUM-S1) recommends the use of maximum entropy principle (MaxEnt) in determining the probability distribution of a quantity having specified properties, e.g., specified central moments. When we only know the mean value…
We study the properties of the Minimum Description Length principle for sequence prediction, considering a two-part MDL estimator which is chosen from a countable class of models. This applies in particular to the important case of…
We consider a model of selective prediction, where the prediction algorithm is given a data sequence in an online fashion and asked to predict a pre-specified statistic of the upcoming data points. The algorithm is allowed to choose when to…
This paper considers the quantification of the prediction performance in Gaussian process regression. The standard approach is to base the prediction error bars on the theoretical predictive variance, which is a lower bound on the mean…
Structure and parameters in a Bayesian network uniquely specify the probability distribution of the modeled domain. The locality of both structure and probabilistic information are the great benefits of Bayesian networks and require the…
Let $X_1,X_2,\ldots $ be independent random variables observed sequentially and such that $X_1,\ldots,X_{\theta-1}$ have a common probability density $p_0$, while $X_\theta,X_{\theta+1},\ldots $ are all distributed according to $p_1\neq…
For exponentially distributed lifetimes, we consider the prediction of future order statistics based on having observed the first $m$ order statistics. We focus on the previously less explored aspects of predicting: (i) an arbitrary pair of…
A Bayesian approach termed BAyesian Least Squares Optimization with Nonnegative L1-norm constraint (BALSON) is proposed. The error distribution of data fitting is described by Gaussian likelihood. The parameter distribution is assumed to be…