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In the standard Bayesian framework data are assumed to be generated by a distribution parametrized by $\theta$ in a parameter space $\Theta$, over which a prior distribution $\pi$ is given. A Bayesian statistician quantifies the belief that…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-09-26 Sergiu Hart , Yosef Rinott

We propose a "decomposition method" to prove non-asymptotic bound for the convergence of empirical measures in various dual norms. The main point is to show that if one measures convergence in duality with sufficiently regular observables,…

Probability · Mathematics 2018-02-13 Benoît Kloeckner

We pose a new and intriguing question motivated by distributed computing regarding random walks on graphs: How long does it take for several independent random walks, starting from the same vertex, to cover an entire graph? We study the…

Probability · Mathematics 2007-11-20 Noga Alon , Chen Avin , Michal Koucky , Gady Kozma , Zvi Lotker , Mark R. Tuttle

We consider the combinatorial properties of the trace of a random walk on the complete graph and on the random graph $G(n,p)$. In particular, we study the appearance of a fixed subgraph in the trace. We prove that for a subgraph containing…

Combinatorics · Mathematics 2020-10-30 Michael Krivelevich , Peleg Michaeli

We consider a model of a random height function with long-range constraints on a discrete segment. This model was suggested by Benjamini, Yadin and Yehudayoff and is a generalization of simple random walk. The random function is uniformly…

Probability · Mathematics 2017-03-14 Ron Peled , Yinon Spinka

Random walk is one of the most classical and well-studied model in probability theory. For two correlated random walks on lattice, every step of the random walks has only two states, moving in the same direction or moving in the opposite…

Probability · Mathematics 2018-08-17 Tianyao Chen , Xue Cheng , Jingping Yang

We compute the asymptotic number of monic trace-one integral polynomials with Galois group $C_3$ and bounded height. For such polynomials we compute a height function coming from toric geometry and introduce a parametrization using the…

Number Theory · Mathematics 2023-10-30 Shubhrajit Bhattacharya , Andrew O'Desky

We consider a one-dimensional Brownian motion of fixed duration $T$. Using a path-integral technique, we compute exactly the probability distribution of the difference $\tau=t_{\min}-t_{\max}$ between the time $t_{\min}$ of the global…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2020-05-13 Francesco Mori , Satya N. Majumdar , Gregory Schehr

We use height arguments to prove two results about the dynamical Mordell-Lang problem. (i) For an endomorphism of a projective variety, the return set of a dense orbit into a curve is finite if any cohomological Lyapunov multiplier of any…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2026-05-11 Junyi Xie , She Yang

In a 1976 paper published in Science, Knuth presented an algorithm to sample (non-uniform) self-avoiding walks crossing a square of side k. From this sample, he constructed an estimator for the number of such walks. The quality of this…

Combinatorics · Mathematics 2025-04-11 Mireille Bousquet-Mélou

We reconsider a classical, well-studied problem from applied probability. This is the max-sum equivalence of randomly weighted sums, and the originality is because we manage to include interdependence among the primary random variables, as…

We introduce a natural generalization of the Erd\H{o}s-R\'enyi random graph model in which random instances of a fixed motif are added independently. The binomial random motif graph $G(H,n,p)$ is the random (multi)graph obtained by adding…

Combinatorics · Mathematics 2019-07-30 Michael Anastos , Peleg Michaeli , Samantha Petti

Given a permutation $\sigma$, its corresponding binary search tree is obtained by recursively inserting the values $\sigma(1),\ldots,\sigma(n)$ into a binary tree so that the label of each node is larger than the labels of its left subtree…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-12-13 Benoît Corsini

We prove scalar and operator-valued Khintchine inequalities for mixtures of free and tensor-independent semicircle variables, interpolating between classical and free Khintchine-type inequalities. Specifically, we characterize the norm of…

Operator Algebras · Mathematics 2025-06-04 Patrick Oliveira Santos , Raghavendra Tripathi , Pierre Youssef

Recent years have witnessed meteoric progress in reasoning models: neural networks that generate intermediate reasoning traces (RTs) before producing a final output. Despite the rapid advancement, our understanding of how RTs support…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2026-02-17 William L. Tong , Ege Cakar , Cengiz Pehlevan

We develop a general theory for Markov chains whose transition probabilities are the coefficients of descent operators on combinatorial Hopf algebras. These model the breaking-then-recombining of combinational objects. Examples include the…

Combinatorics · Mathematics 2018-08-28 C. Y. Amy Pang

Let $X$ be an infinite, locally finite, connected, quasi-transitive graph without loops or multiple edges. A graph height function on $X$ is a map adapted to the graph structure, assigning to every vertex an integer, called height. Bridges…

Combinatorics · Mathematics 2019-07-05 Christian Lindorfer

Time series often appear in an additive hierarchical structure. In such cases, time series on higher levels are the sums of their subordinate time series. This hierarchical structure places a natural constraint on forecasts. However,…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-03-20 Louis Steinmeister , Markus Pauly

The extreme statistics of time signals is studied when the maximum is measured from the initial value. In the case of independent, identically distributed (iid) variables, we classify the limiting distribution of the maximum according to…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2009-11-13 T. W. Burkhardt , G. Gyorgyi , N. R. Moloney , Z. Racz

Consider directed polymers in a random environment on the complete graph of size $N$. This model can be formulated as a product of i.i.d. $N\times N$ random matrices and its large time asymptotics is captured by Lyapunov exponents and the…

Probability · Mathematics 2018-01-22 Francis Comets , Gregorio R. Moreno Flores , Alejandro F. Ramirez