Related papers: Towards Understanding the Predictability of Stock …
We present a new model for prediction markets, in which we use risk measures to model agents and introduce a market maker to describe the trading process. This specific choice on modelling tools brings us mathematical convenience. The…
Investors try to predict returns of financial assets to make successful investment. Many quantitative analysts have used machine learning-based methods to find unknown profitable market rules from large amounts of market data. However,…
It has been assumed that arbitrage profits are not possible in efficient markets, because future prices are not predictable. Here we show that predictability alone is not a sufficient measure of market efficiency. We instead propose to…
The importance of predicting stock market prices cannot be overstated. It is a pivotal task for investors and financial institutions as it enables them to make informed investment decisions, manage risks, and ensure the stability of the…
An artificial stock market is established based on multi-agent . Each agent has a limit memory of the history of stock price, and will choose an action according to his memory and trading strategy. The trading strategy of each agent evolves…
In this paper we seek to demonstrate the predictability of stock market returns and explain the nature of this return predictability. To this end, we introduce investors with different investment horizons into the news-driven, analytic,…
Whether or not stocks are predictable has been a topic of concern for decades.The efficient market hypothesis (EMH) says that it is difficult for investors to make extra profits by predicting stock prices, but this may not be true,…
We consider the problem of dynamic buying and selling of shares from a collection of $N$ stocks with random price fluctuations. To limit investment risk, we place an upper bound on the total number of shares kept at any time. Assuming that…
An agent-based modelling methodology for the joint price evolution of two stocks is put forward. The method models future multidimensional price trajectories reflecting how a class of agents rebalance their portfolios in an operational way…
We discuss a method for predicting financial movements and finding pockets of predictability in the price-series, which is built around inferring the heterogeneity of trading strategies in a multi-agent trader population. This work explores…
The importance of considering the volumes to analyze stock prices movements can be considered as a well-accepted practice in the financial area. However, when we look at the scientific production in this field, we still cannot find a…
Thanks to the high potential for profit, trading has become increasingly attractive to investors as the cryptocurrency and stock markets rapidly expand. However, because financial markets are intricate and dynamic, accurately predicting…
We attempt to explain stock market dynamics in terms of the interaction among three variables: market price, investor opinion and information flow. We propose a framework for such interaction and apply it to build a model of stock market…
Financial markets are difficult to predict due to its complex systems dynamics. Although there have been some recent studies that use machine learning techniques for financial markets prediction, they do not offer satisfactory performance…
A surprising image of the stock market arises if the price time series of all Dow Jones Industrial Average stock components are represented in one chart at once. The chart evolves into a braid representation of the stock market by taking…
New theoretical approaches about forecasting stock markets are proposed. A mathematization of the stock market in terms of arithmetical relations is given, where some simple (non-differential, non-fractal) expressions are also suggested as…
Forecasting stock returns is a challenging problem due to the highly stochastic nature of the market and the vast array of factors and events that can influence trading volume and prices. Nevertheless it has proven to be an attractive…
We present a novel agent-based approach to simulating an over-the-counter (OTC) financial market in which trades are intermediated solely by market makers and agent visibility is constrained to a network topology. Dynamics, such as changes…
The Efficient Market Hypothesis has been a staple of economics research for decades. In particular, weak-form market efficiency -- the notion that past prices cannot predict future performance -- is strongly supported by econometric…
Stock market prediction is still a challenging problem because there are many factors effect to the stock market price such as company news and performance, industry performance, investor sentiment, social media sentiment and economic…