English
Related papers

Related papers: On Rational Bubbles and Fat Tails

200 papers

We study the formation of high energy tails in a one-dimensional kinetic model for granular gases, the so-called Inelastic Maxwell Model. We introduce a time- discretized version of the stochastic process, and show that continuous time…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2007-06-13 R. Lambiotte , L. Brenig , J. M. Salazar

We define a financial bubble as a period of unsustainable growth, when the price of an asset increases ever more quickly, in a series of accelerating phases of corrections and rebounds. More technically, during a bubble phase, the price…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2014-04-09 Didier Sornette , Peter Cauwels

A family of wave packets with power law tails are employed to analyze the long time dependence of the corresponding probability density. The densities, associated to packets for free particles in the one-dimensional space, with sufficiently…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2007-05-23 R. S. Mendes , C. Anteneodo

Dynamical systems in nature exhibit selfsimilar fractal fluctuations and the corresponding power spectra follow inverse power law form signifying long-range space-time correlations identified as self-organized criticality. The physics of…

General Physics · Physics 2008-05-23 A. M. Selvam

A model of homogeneously driven dissipative system, consisting of a collection of $N$ particles that are characterized by only their velocities, is considered. Adopting a discrete time dynamics, at each time step, a pair of velocities is…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2014-01-30 V. V. Prasad , Sanjib Sabhapandit , Abhishek Dhar

In proportional elections with open lists the excess of preferences received by candidates with respect to the list average is known to follow a universal lognormal distribution. We show that lognormality is broken provided preferences are…

Physics and Society · Physics 2016-01-27 Filippo Palombi , Simona Toti

Using a model based on generalised Lotka Volterra dynamics together with some recent results for the solution of generalised Langevin equations, we show that the equilibrium solution for the probability distribution of wealth has two…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2008-12-10 Peter Richmond , Sorin Solomon

In a general class of one dimensional random differential equation the convergence of the distribution function of the solution to stationary state distribution is studied. In particular it is proved the boundedness respectively the…

Probability · Mathematics 2010-07-07 Gyorgy Steinbrecher , Xavier Garbet , Boris Weyssow

This is an epistemological approach to errors in both inference and risk management, leading to necessary structural properties for the probability distribution. Many mechanisms have been used to show the emergence of fat tails. Here we…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-12-16 Nassim Nicholas Taleb , Pasquale Cirillo

Over the last few decades power law distributions have been suggested as forming generative mechanisms in a variety of disparate fields, such as, astrophysics, criminology and database curation. However, fitting these heavy tailed…

Computation · Statistics 2014-08-26 Colin S. Gillespie

We investigate the distributions of epsilon-drawdowns and epsilon-drawups of the most liquid futures financial contracts of the world at time scales of 30 seconds. The epsilon-drawdowns (resp. epsilon- drawups) generalise the notion of runs…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2015-04-08 Vladimir Filimonov , Didier Sornette

Linear systems with many degrees of freedom containing multiplicative and additive noise are considered. The steady state probability distribution for equations of this kind is examined. With multiplicative white noise it is shown that…

chao-dyn · Physics 2009-10-22 J. M. Deutsch

The present Letter, deals with the statistical theory [Phys. Rev. E {\bf 66}, 056125 (2002) and Phys. Rev E {\bf 72}, 036108 (2005)], which predicts the probability distribution $p(E) \propto \exp_{\kappa} (-I)$, where, $I \propto \beta E…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2011-10-19 G. Kaniadakis

Effects of randomness on non-integer power law tails in multiplicatively interacting stochastic processes are investigated theoretically. Generally, randomness causes decrease of the exponent of tails and the growth rate of processes.…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2009-11-10 Toshiya Ohtsuki , Akihiro Fujihara , Hiroshi Yamamoto

Probability distributions having power-law tails are observed in a broad range of social, economic, and biological systems. We describe here a potentially useful common framework. We derive distribution functions $\{p_k\}$ for situations in…

Physics and Society · Physics 2015-01-07 Jack Peterson , Purushottam D. Dixit , Ken A. Dill

We investigate the shape of the Italian personal income distribution using microdata from the Survey on Household Income and Wealth, made publicly available by the Bank of Italy for the years 1977--2002. We find that the upper tail of the…

Other Condensed Matter · Physics 2009-01-31 F. Clementi , M. Gallegati

Random multiplicative growth with redistribution generates stationary Pareto wealth tails in the Bouchaud-M\'ezard model, but assumes a fixed multiplicative noise intensity. This is restrictive for physical and financial growth processes,…

Disordered Systems and Neural Networks · Physics 2026-05-20 Maxence Arutkin , Alexandre Vallée

Heavy-tailed or power-law distributions are becoming increasingly common in biological literature. A wide range of biological data has been fitted to distributions with heavy tails. Many of these studies use simple fitting methods to find…

Quantitative Methods · Quantitative Biology 2007-12-06 A. James , M. J. Plank

Recently, Mike and Farmer have constructed a very powerful and realistic behavioral model to mimick the dynamic process of stock price formation based on the empirical regularities of order placement and cancelation in a purely order-driven…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2009-02-23 Gao-Feng Gu , Wei-Xing Zhou

The distribution of returns in financial time series exhibits heavy tails. In empirical studies, it has been found that gaps between the orders in the order book lead to large price shifts and thereby to these heavy tails. We set up an…

Trading and Market Microstructure · Quantitative Finance 2012-12-04 Thilo A. Schmitt , Rudi Schäfer , Michael C. Münnix , Thomas Guhr