Related papers: Forest-fire models as a bridge between different p…
We investigate a random--neighbours version of the two dimensional non-conserving earthquake model of Olami, Feder and Christensen [Phys. Rev. Lett. {\bf 68}, 1244 (1992)]. We show both analytically and numerically that criticality can be…
Understanding how stochastic and non-linear deterministic processes interact is a major challenge in population dynamics theory. After a short review, we introduce a stochastic individual-centered particle model to describe the evolution in…
This paper applies the theory of continuous phase transitions of statistical mechanics to a slider-block model. The slider-block model is chosen as a representative of systems with avalanches. Similar behavior can be observed in a…
We introduce and study numerically a directed two-dimensional sandpile automaton with probabilistic toppling (probability parameter p) which provides a good laboratory to study both self-organized criticality and the far-from-equilibrium…
Ecosystems display a complex spatial organization. Ecologists have long tried to characterize them by looking at how different measures of biodiversity change across spatial scales. Ecological neutral theory has provided simple predictions…
Our article described an experiment that adjudicates between different causal accounts of Bell inequality violations by a comparison of their predictive power, finding that certain types of models that are structurally radical but…
Large wildfires pose a major environmental concern, and precise maps of fire risk can improve disaster relief planning. Fosberg Fire Weather Index (FFWI) is often used to measure wildfire risk; FFWI exhibits non-Gaussian marginal…
Because most natural phenomena exhibit dependence at multiple scales like locations of earthquakes or forest fire occurrences, spatio-temporal single-scale point process models are unrealistic in many applications. This motivates us to…
In the classical Drossel-Schwabl forest fire process, vertices of a lattice become occupied at rate $1$, and they are hit by lightning at some tiny rate $\zeta > 0$, which causes entire connected components to burn. In this paper, we study…
To explain the ubiquity of power laws and fractals in nature, Bak, Tang, and Wiesenfeld formulated simple conditions for a system to self-organize into a critical state. Dickman, Mu\~noz, Vespignani, and Zapperi postulated that the…
This article proposes a novel collective decision making scheme to solve the multi-agent drift-diffusion-model problem with the help of spiking neural networks. The exponential integrate-and-fire model is used here to capture the individual…
Wildfire prediction is important for early warning and resource allocation, yet existing Earth foundation models (Earth FMs) are pretrained for general atmospheric and geophysical objectives rather than wildfire forecasting. To address this…
Based on decision trees, many fields have arguably made tremendous progress in recent years. In simple words, decision trees use the strategy of "divide-and-conquer" to divide the complex problem on the dependency between input features and…
Modelling wildfire occurrences is important for disaster management including prevention, detection and suppression of large catastrophic events. We present a spatial Poisson hurdle model for exploring geographical variation of monthly…
The hierarchical system of forest ecosystem models based on the theory of individual-based (structured) models of populations and communities is briefly described. New self-thinning models are integrated with tree stand models within a…
The train model which is a variant of the Burridge-Knopoff earthquake model is investigated for a velocity-strengthening friction law. It shows self-organized criticality with complex scaling exponents. That is, the probability density…
In this paper, we introduce a framework for contextual distributionally robust optimization (DRO) that considers the causal and continuous structure of the underlying distribution by developing interpretable and tractable decision rules…
Forest fires are the outcome of a complex interaction between environmental factors, topography and socioeconomic factors (Bedia et al, 2014). Therefore, understand causality and early prediction are crucial elements for controlling such…
We consider the problem of adaptively monitoring a wildfire front using a mobile agent (e.g., a drone), whose trajectory determines where sensor data is collected and thus influences the accuracy of fire propagation estimation. This is a…
Threshold theorem is probably the most important development of mathematical epidemic modelling. Unfortunately, some models may not behave according to the threshold. In this paper, we will focus on the final outcome of SIR model with…