Related papers: Have your cake and eat it too: increasing returns …
Tail risk protection is in the focus of the financial industry and requires solid mathematical and statistical tools, especially when a trading strategy is derived. Recent hype driven by machine learning (ML) mechanisms has raised the…
In this paper, we introduce reduced-bias estimators for the estimation of the tail index of a Pareto-type distribution. This is achieved through the use of a regularised weighted least squares with an exponential regression model for…
We investigate a way of comparing and classifying tails of random variables. Our approach extends the notion of classical indices, such as exponential and moment indices, which are widely used measuring heaviness of tail functions. A…
We introduce a statistical model for operational losses based on heavy-tailed distributions and bipartite graphs, which captures the event type and business line structure of operational risk data. The model explicitly takes into account…
We examine statistical pictures of violent conflicts over the last 2000 years, finding techniques for dealing with incompleteness and unreliability of historical data. We introduce a novel approach to apply extreme value theory to…
We study the optimal decisions and equilibria of agents who aim to minimize their risks by allocating their positions over extremely heavy-tailed (i.e., infinite-mean) and possibly dependent losses. The loss distributions of our focus are…
We review recent progress in modeling credit risk for correlated assets. We start from the Merton model which default events and losses are derived from the asset values at maturity. To estimate the time development of the asset values, the…
Gini-type correlation coefficients have become increasingly important in a variety of research areas, including economics, insurance and finance, where modelling with heavy-tailed distributions is of pivotal importance. In such situations,…
In this paper, we study the robust optimal investment and risk control problem for an insurer who owns the insider information about the financial market and the insurance market under model uncertainty. Both financial risky asset process…
We present general results on the univariate tail conditional expectation (TCE) and multivariate tail conditional expectation for location-scale mixture of elliptical distributions. Examples include the location-scale mixture of normal…
Being able to predict the occurrence of extreme returns is important in financial risk management. Using the distribution of recurrence intervals---the waiting time between consecutive extremes---we show that these extreme returns are…
We develop a general technique for bounding the tail of the total variation distance between the empirical and the true distributions over countable sets. Our methods sharpen a deviation bound of Devroye (1983) for distributions over finite…
Linear regression with the classical normality assumption for the error distribution may lead to an undesirable posterior inference of regression coefficients due to the potential outliers. This paper considers the finite mixture of two…
In this paper, we obtain some results on precise large deviations for non-random and random sums of widely dependent random variables with common dominatedly varying tail distribution or consistently varying tail distribution on…
We consider the problem of optimizing a portfolio of financial assets, where the number of assets can be much larger than the number of observations. The optimal portfolio weights require estimating the inverse covariance matrix of excess…
We implement momentum strategies using reward-risk measures as ranking criteria based on classical tempered stable distribution. Performances and risk characteristics for the alternative portfolios are obtained in various asset classes and…
Parametric insurance has emerged as a practical way to cover risks that may be difficult to assess. By introducing a parameter that triggers compensation and allows the insurer to determine a payment without estimating the actual loss,…
We obtain concentration and large deviation for the sums of independent and identically distributed random variables with heavy-tailed distributions. Our concentration results are concerned with random variables whose distributions satisfy…
To achieve robustness of risk across different assets, risk parity investing rules, a particular state of risk contributions, have grown in popularity over the previous few decades. To generalize the concept of risk contribution from the…
The most popular approach in extreme value statistics is the modelling of threshold exceedances using the asymptotically motivated generalised Pareto distribution. This approach involves the selection of a high threshold above which the…