Related papers: Correlations in the Bond-Future Market
We investigate the two components of the total daily return (close-to-close), the overnight return (close-to-open) and the daytime return (open-to-close), as well as the corresponding volatilities of the 2215 NYSE stocks from 1988 to 2007.…
This paper derives the expressions of correlations between prices of two assets, returns of two assets, and price-return correlations of two assets that depend on statistical moments and correlations of the current values, past values, and…
Decisions taken in our everyday lives are based on a wide variety of information so it is generally very difficult to assess what are the strategies that guide us. Stock market therefore provides a rich environment to study how people take…
Consider a one dimensional simple random walk $X=(X_n)_{n\geq0}$. We form a new simple symmetric random walk $Y=(Y_n)_{n\geq0}$ by taking sums of products of the increments of $X$ and study the two-dimensional walk…
We propose a reduced form set of two coupled continuous time equations linking the price of a representative asset and the price of a bond, the later quantifying the cost of borrowing. The feedbacks between asset prices and bonds are…
We study the dependence structure of market states by estimating empirical pairwise copulas of daily stock returns. We consider both original returns, which exhibit time-varying trends and volatilities, as well as locally normalized ones,…
To identify emerging interdependencies between traded stocks we investigate the behavior of the stocks of FTSE 100 companies in the period 2000-2015, by looking at daily stock values. Exploiting the power of information theoretical measures…
Applying historical data from the USD LIBOR transition period, we estimate a joint model for SOFR, Fed Funds, and Eurodollar futures rates as well as spot USD LIBOR and term repo rates. The framework endogenously models basis spreads…
Leveraging a unique dataset of carbon futures option prices traded on the ICE market from December 2015 until December 2020, we present the results from an unprecedented calibration exercise. Within a multifactor stochastic volatility…
We introduce quantum walks with a time-dependent coin, and show how they include, as a particular case, the generalized quantum walk recently studied by Wojcik et al. {[}Phys. Rev. Lett. \textbf{93}, 180601(2004){]} which exhibits…
We utilize the symmetric thermal optimal path (TOPS) method to examine the dynamic interaction patterns between the VIX and VIX futures markets. We document that the VIX dominates the VIX futures more in the first few years, especially…
Based on the new type of random walk process called the Potentials of Unbalanced Complex Kinetics (PUCK) model, we theoretically show that the price diffusion in large scales is amplified 2/(2 + b) times, where b is the coefficient of…
Financial price changes obey two universal properties: they follow a power law and they tend to be clustered in time. The second regularity, known as volatility clustering, entails some predictability in the price changes: while their sign…
This paper examines the determinants of the volatility of futures prices and basis for three commodities: gold, oil and bitcoin -- often dubbed solid, liquid and digital gold -- by using contract-by-contract analysis which has been…
The probability distribution p(l) of an atom to return to a step at distance l from the detachment site, with a random walk in between, is exactly enumerated. In particular, we study the dependence of p(l) on step roughness, presence of…
We study the problem of dynamically trading multiple futures contracts with different underlying assets. To capture the joint dynamics of stochastic bases for all traded futures, we propose a new model involving a multi-dimensional scaled…
In probability theory, reinforced walks are random walks on a lattice (or more generally a graph) that preferentially revisit neighboring `locations' (sites or bonds) that have been visited before. In this paper, we consider walks with…
This work is motivated by the study of some two-dimensional random walks in random environment (RWRE) with transition probabilities independent of one coordinate of the walk. These are non-reversible models and can not be treated by…
Using frequency distributions of daily closing price time series of several financial market indexes, we investigate whether the bias away from an equiprobable sequence distribution found in the data, predicted by algorithmic information…
Financial markets are often modelled as if time were unique and continuous across assets and markets. Financial markets are however asynchronous, order flow is event-driven, and waiting times between events are often random. Many of the…