Related papers: Beyond implied volatility
Volatility prediction--an essential concept in financial markets--has recently been addressed using sentiment analysis methods. We investigate the sentiment of annual disclosures of companies in stock markets to forecast volatility. We…
A new mathematical model for the Black-Scholes equation is proposed to forecast option prices. This model includes new interval for the price of the underlying stock as well as new initial and boundary conditions. Conventional notions of…
Financial time series have been investigated to follow fat-tailed distributions. Further, an empirical probability distribution sometimes shows cut-off shapes on its tails. To describe this stylized fact, we incorporate the cut-off effect…
In the past decades, advanced probabilistic methods have had significant impact on the field of finance, both in academia and in the financial industry. Conversely, financial questions have stimulated new research directions in probability.…
Using frequency distributions of daily closing price time series of several financial market indexes, we investigate whether the bias away from an equiprobable sequence distribution found in the data, predicted by algorithmic information…
We consider arbitrage free valuation of European options in Black-Scholes and Merton markets, where the general structure of the market is known, however the specific parameters are not known. In order to reflect this subjective uncertainty…
In this paper, we focus on option pricing models based on space-time fractional diffusion. We briefly revise recent results which show that the option price can be represented in the terms of rapidly converging double-series and apply these…
We provide a unifying treatment of pathwise moderate deviations for models commonly used in financial applications, and for related integrated functionals. Suitable scaling allows us to transfer these results into small-time, large-time and…
This study investigates the application of machine learning techniques, specifically Neural Networks, Random Forests, and CatBoost for option pricing, in comparison to traditional models such as Black-Scholes and Heston Model. Using both…
We consider stochastic volatility models under parameter uncertainty and investigate how model derived prices of European options are affected. We let the pricing parameters evolve dynamically in time within a specified region, and…
We apply path integration techniques to obtain option pricing with stochastic volatility using a generalized Black-Scholes equation known as the Merton and Garman equation. We numerically simulate the option prices using the technique of…
We consider implied volatilities in asset pricing models, where the discounted underlying is a strict local martingale under the pricing measure. Our main result gives an asymptotic expansion of the right wing of the implied volatility…
In this paper, a new numerical method based on adaptive gradient descent optimizers is provided for computing the implied volatility from the Black-Scholes (B-S) option pricing model. It is shown that the new method is more accurate than…
We investigate the pricing of financial options under the 2-hypergeometric stochastic volatility model. This is an analytically tractable model that reproduces the volatility smile and skew effects observed in empirical market data. Using a…
The main purpose of this article is to give a general overview and understanding of the first widely used option-pricing model, the Black-Scholes model. The history and context are presented, with the usefulness and implications in the…
By considering the Wade Formula, we propose a model to study the evolution of the oil price per barrel. Our model shows that the policy of diversification of the energy is to be supported. This model is proposed to see how it is possible to…
We consider studies where multiple measures on an outcome variable are collected over time, but some subjects drop out before the end of follow up. Analyses of such data often proceed under either a 'last observation carried forward' or…
The purpose of this work is to explore the role that random arbitrage opportunities play in pricing financial derivatives. We use a non-equilibrium model to set up a stochastic portfolio, and for the random arbitrage return, we choose a…
We present a multivariate stochastic volatility model with leverage, which is flexible enough to recapture the individual dynamics as well as the interdependencies between several assets while still being highly analytically tractable.…
This paper presents a new model for options pricing. The Black-Scholes-Merton (BSM) model plays an important role in financial options pricing. However, the BSM model assumes that the risk-free interest rate, volatility, and equity premium…