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We propose the use of Monte Carlo histogram reweighting to extrapolate predictions of machine learning methods. In our approach, we treat the output from a convolutional neural network as an observable in a statistical system, enabling its…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2020-11-25 Dimitrios Bachtis , Gert Aarts , Biagio Lucini

The histogram reweighting technique, widely used to analyze Monte Carlo data, is shown to be applicable to dynamic properties obtained from Molecular Dynamics simulations. The theory presented here is based on the fact that the correlation…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2009-11-11 Carlos Nieto-Draghi , Javier Perez-Pellitero , Josep Bonet Avalos

The combination of continuum Many-Body Quantum physics and Monte Carlo methods provide a powerful and well established approach to first principles calculations for large systems. Replacing the exact solution of the problem with a…

Computational Physics · Physics 2009-10-01 J. R. Trail

High statistical precision is critical for Monte Carlo (MC) samples in high energy physics and is degraded by negatively weighted events. This paper investigates a procedure to learn the relationship between the negative and positive weight…

High Energy Physics - Experiment · Physics 2026-01-15 Christopher Palmer , Braden Kronheim

Importance sampling Monte-Carlo methods are widely used for the approximation of expectations with respect to partially known probability measures. In this paper we study a deterministic version of such an estimator based on quasi-Monte…

Computation · Statistics 2024-12-20 Josef Dick , Daniel Rudolf , Houying Zhu

Empirical relationships are derived for the expected sampling error of quantile estimations using Monte Carlo experiments for two frequency distributions frequently encountered in climate sciences. The relationships found are expressed as a…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-10-12 Philippe Roy , René Laprise , Philippe Gachon

We investigate the properties of a sequential Monte Carlo method where the particle weight that appears in the algorithm is estimated by a positive, unbiased estimator. We present broadly-applicable convergence results, including a central…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-08-26 Paul B. Rohrbach , Robert L. Jack

This paper shows a simple implementation of the Histogram Method for extrapolations in Monte Carlo simulations, using the moments of the operators that define the energy, instead of their histogram. This implementation is suitable for…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2007-05-23 Gabriel Perez

Thermal or finite-size scaling analyses of importance sampling Monte Carlo time series in the vicinity of phase transition points often combine different estimates for the same quantity, such as a critical exponent, with the intent to…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2009-04-08 Martin Weigel , Wolfhard Janke

The analysis of results from HEP experiments often involves the estimates of the composition of the binned data samples, based on Monte Carlo simulations of various sources. Due to a finite statistic of MC samples they have statistical…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2017-11-22 Petr Mandrik

Monte Carlo simulations are an essential tool in particle physics data analysis. Events are typically generated alongside weights that redistribute the cross section of the simulated process across the phase space. These weights can be…

High Energy Physics - Phenomenology · Physics 2026-05-13 Benjamin Nachman , Dennis Noll

Expectation values of physical quantities may accurately be obtained by the evaluation of integrals within Many-Body Quantum mechanics, and these multi-dimensional integrals may be estimated using Monte Carlo methods. In a previous…

Computational Physics · Physics 2009-10-01 J. R. Trail

In the Monte Carlo (MC) method statistical noise is usually present. Statistical noise may become dominant in the calculation of a distribution, usually by iteration, but is less Important in calculating integrals. The subject of the…

Computational Physics · Physics 2013-11-08 Mihály Makai , Zoltán Szatmáry

Overlap between two neural quantum states can be computed through Monte Carlo sampling by evaluating the unnormalized probability amplitudes on a subset of basis configurations. Due to the presence of probability amplitude ratios in the…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2023-11-28 Tomasz Szołdra

We discuss possible sources of systematic errors in the computation of critical exponents by renormalization-group methods, extrapolations from exact enumerations and Monte Carlo simulations. A careful Monte Carlo determination of the…

High Energy Physics - Lattice · Physics 2009-10-30 Sergio Caracciolo , Maria Serena Causo , Andrea Pelissetto

We modify the reweighting factor of the projector used in diffusion Monte Carlo to reduce the time-step error of the total energy. Further, we present a reweighting scheme that has the desirable feature that it is exactly size-consistent,…

Chemical Physics · Physics 2024-03-18 Tyler A. Anderson , Manolo C. Per , C. J. Umrigar

We present iterative Monte Carlo algorithm for which the temperature variable is attracted by a critical point. The algorithm combines techniques of single histogram reweighting and linear filtering. The 2d Ising model of ferromagnet is…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2015-06-24 M. Gmitra , D. Horvath

We combine histogram reweighting techniques with the two-lattice matching Monte Carlo renormalization group method to conduct computationally efficient calculations of critical exponents on systems with moderately small lattice sizes. The…

High Energy Physics - Lattice · Physics 2024-01-23 Dimitrios Bachtis

Quasi-Monte Carlo sampling can attain far better accuracy than plain Monte Carlo sampling. However, with plain Monte Carlo sampling it is much easier to estimate the attained accuracy. This article describes methods old and new to quantify…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2025-07-16 Art B. Owen

We describe Monte Carlo approximation to the maximum likelihood estimator in models with intractable norming constants and explanatory variables. We consider both sources of randomness (due to the initial sample and to Monte Carlo…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-12-08 Blazej Miasojedow , Wojciech Niemiro , Jan Palczewski , Wojciech Rejchel
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