Related papers: ``String'' formulation of the Dynamics of the Forw…
This paper offers a new class of models of the term structure of interest rates. We allow each instantaneous forward rate to be driven by a different stochastic shock, constrained in such a way as to keep the forward rate curve continuous.…
We present a family of models for the term structure of interest rates which describe the interest rate curve as a stochastic process in a Hilbert space. We start by decomposing the deformations of the term structure into the variations of…
We present compelling empirical evidence for a new interpretation of the Forward Rate Curve (FRC) term structure. We find that the average FRC follows a square-root law, with a prefactor related to the spot volatility, suggesting a…
We consider a generalization of the Heath Jarrow Morton model for the term structure of interest rates where the forward rate is driven by Paretian fluctuations. We derive a generalization of It\^{o}'s lemma for the calculation of a…
Twenty five years ago, several authors proposed to describe the forward interest rate curve (FRC) as an elastic string along which idiosyncratic shocks propagate, accounting for the peculiar structure of the return correlation across…
The phenomenology of the forward rate curve (FRC) can be accurately understood by the fluctuations of a stiff elastic string (Le Coz and Bouchaud, 2024). By relating the exogenous shocks driving such fluctuations to the surprises in the…
In this paper, we study term structure movements in the spirit of Heath, Jarrow, and Morton [Econometrica 60(1), 77-105] under volatility uncertainty. We model the instantaneous forward rate as a diffusion process driven by a G-Brownian…
Explicitly taking into account the risk incurred when borrowing at a shorter tenor versus lending at a longer tenor ("roll-over risk"), we construct a stochastic model framework for the term structure of interest rates in which a frequency…
The Convolution and Master equations governing the time behavior of the term structure of Interest Rates are set up both for continuous variables and for their discretised forms. The notion of Seed is introduced. The discretised theoretical…
In this survey paper we discuss recent advances on short interest rate models which can be formulated in terms of a stochastic differential equation for the instantaneous interest rate (also called short rate) or a system of such equations…
This paper contains a phenomenological description of the whole U.S. forward rate curve (FRC), based on an data in the period 1990-1996. We find that the average FRC (measured from the spot rate) grows as the square-root of the maturity,…
In this work, we consider the issue of pricing exchange options and spread options with stochastic interest rates. We provide the closed form solution for the exchange option price when interest rate is stochastic. Our result holds when…
In this paper we study empirically the Forward Rate Curve (FRC) of 5 different currencies. We confirm and extend the findings of our previous investigation of the U.S. Forward Rate Curve. In particular, the average FRC follows a square-root…
The rotating string model is an effective model of mesons, in which the quark and the antiquark are linked by a straight string. We previously developed a new framework to include the retardation effects in the rotating string model, but…
We solve time-reversed stochastic inflation in the semi-infinite flat potential with a constant drift term and derive an exact expression for the probability distribution of the curvature fluctuations. It exhibits exponential decaying tails…
We consider the problem of modelling the term structure of defaultable bonds, under minimal assumptions on the default time. In particular, we do not assume the existence of a default intensity and we therefore allow for the possibility of…
We construct a no-arbitrage model of bond prices where the long bond is used as a numeraire. We develop bond prices and their dynamics without developing any model for the spot rate or forward rates. The model is arbitrage free and all…
We develop a general term structure framework taking stochastic discontinuities explicitly into account. Stochastic discontinuities are a key feature in interest rate markets, as for example the jumps of the term structures in…
The two main approaches in credit risk are the structural approach pioneered in Merton (1974) and the reduced-form framework proposed in Jarrow & Turnbull (1995) and in Artzner & Delbaen (1995). The goal of this article is to provide a…
The simplest field theory description of the multivariate statistics of forward rate variations over time and maturities, involves a quadratic action containing a gradient squared rigidity term. However, this choice leads to a spurious kink…