Related papers: Stock market crashes are outliers
This review is a partial synthesis of the book ``Why stock market crash'' (Princeton University Press, January 2003), which presents a general theory of financial crashes and of stock market instabilities that his co-workers and the author…
Drawdowns are essential aspects of risk assessment in investment management. They offer a more natural measure of real market risks than the variance or other cumulants of daily (or some other fixed time scale) distributions of returns.…
Extreme events have an important role which is sometime catastrophic in a variety of natural phenomena including climate, earthquakes and turbulence, as well as in man-made environments like financial markets. Statistical analysis and…
This paper presents an exclusive classification of the largest crashes in Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), SP500 and NASDAQ in the past century. Crashes are objectively defined as the top-rank filtered drawdowns (loss from the last…
We propose that large stock market crashes are analogous to critical points studied in statistical physics with log-periodic correction to scaling. We extend our previous renormalization group model of stock market prices prior to and after…
We propose that catastrophic events are "outliers" with statistically different properties than the rest of the population and result from mechanisms involving amplifying critical cascades. Applications and the potential for prediction are…
We define outliers as a set of observations which contradicts the proposed mathematical (statistical) model and we discuss the frequently observed types of the outliers. Further we explore what changes in the model have to be made in order…
The aim of the paper is to show that the presence of one possible type of outliers is not connected to that of heavy tails of the distribution. In contrary, typical situation for outliers appearance is the case of compact supported…
We argue that the word ``critical'' in the title is not purely literary. Based on our and other previous work on nonlinear complex dynamical systems, we summarize present evidence, on the Oct. 1929, Oct. 1987, Oct. 1987 Hong-Kong, Aug. 1998…
Statistics of drawdowns (loss from the last local maximum to the next local minimum) plays an important role in risk assessment of investment strategies. As they incorporate higher ($>$ two) order correlations, they offer a better measure…
We perform an extended analysis of the distribution of drawdowns in the two leading exchange markets (US dollar against the Deutsmark and against the Yen), in the major world stock markets, in the U.S. and Japanese bond market and in the…
We are trying to give a mathematically correct definition of outliers. Our approach is based on the distance between two last order statistics and appears to be connected to the law of large numbers. Key words: outliers, law of large…
Motivated by the hypothesis that financial crashes are macroscopic examples of critical phenomena associated with a discrete scaling symmetry, we reconsider the evidence of log-periodic precursors to financial crashes and test the…
We present an analysis of the time behavior of the $S\&P500$ (Standard and Poors) New York stock exchange index before and after the October 1987 market crash and identify precursory patterns as well as aftershock signatures and…
In this empirical paper we show that in the months following a crash there is a distinct connection between the fall of stock prices and the increase in the range of interest rates for a sample of bonds. This variable, which is often…
A possibility to give strong mathematical definitions of outliers and heavy tailed distributions or their modification is discussed. Some alternatives for the notion of tail index are proposed. Key words: outliers, heavy tails, tail index.
Finance is about how the continuous stream of news gets incorporated into prices. But not all news have the same impact. Can one distinguish the effects of the Sept. 11, 2001 attack or of the coup against Gorbachev on Aug., 19, 1991 from…
We provide theoretical and experimental evidence of statistical outliers in random laser emission that are not accounted for by the, now established, power-law tailed (L\'evy) distribution. Such outliers manifest themselves as single, large…
Failure of the main argument for the use of heavy tailed distribution in Finance is given. More precisely, one cannot observe so many outliers for Cauchy or for symmetric stable distributions as we have in reality. keywords:outliers;…
Using the framework of factor models, we establish the general expression of the coefficient of tail dependence between the market and a stock (i.e., the probability that the stock incurs a large loss, assuming that the market has also…